The market at the beginning of the year was extremely torn. The track stocks represented by new energy fell to the fund manager who “didn\’t dare to go to his mother-in-law’s house for dinner”. The undervalued cyclical stocks represented by real estate and banks have ushered in a “good start”.
As of the closing on January 11, just six trading days later this year, the Shanghai index fell by 2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4%, and the gem index fell by 8%. However, the banking sector rose against the trend, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) such elephants rose by 10%, the leading Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose by more than 15%, and the whole sector rose by 4.25%, ranking second among the 31 Shenwan industries, second only to the real estate sector. All 41 stocks in the plate were red, and none fell.
According to brokerage analysts, the opening market of the banking sector is related to three factors: first, the suppression and weakening of real estate risk exposure, and the steady growth of policies brings further easing expectations; Second, the market style is switched, and the funds flow from the high valuation sector to the low valuation sector; Third, the performance express of some banks disclosed that the net profit increased greatly, but the non-performing assets decreased both, which became the catalyst of the plate market.
several banks sent performance letters
netizen: how beautiful!
On the evening of January 11, a number of listed banks released their annual performance letters for 2021.
According to the announcement of Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , the operating revenue will reach 63.771 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 22.58%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 19.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.72%. At the end of the reporting period, the company’s non-performing loan ratio was 1.08%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points compared with the beginning of the period, and has decreased year by year in the six years since its listing. The provision coverage rate was 307.72%, an increase of 51.32 percentage points over the beginning of the period, and has increased year by year in the six years since its listing.
With Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) from Jiangsu, the operating revenue in 2021 was 7.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.27%; The net profit attributable to common shareholders was RMB 2.184 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.13%. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.81%, down 0.15 percentage points from the beginning of the year; The provision coverage rate was 531.98%, an increase of 46.65 percentage points over the beginning of the year.
On the evening of November 11, the joint-stock bank China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) also released a performance express. Last year, it realized an operating revenue of 204.557 billion yuan, an increase of 5.05% over the previous year; The total profit was 65.517 billion yuan, an increase of 13.24% over the previous year; The net profit attributable to shareholders was 55.641 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6% over the previous year. By the end of 2021, China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) NPL ratio was 1.39%, down 0.25 percentage points from the end of the previous year; The provision coverage rate was 182.14%, an increase of 10.46 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
The previous day, the joint-stock banks Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) in Jiangsu Province took the lead in releasing the performance express, which was also the painting style of a large increase in performance than expected and an improvement in non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage.
In 2021, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) realized a total profit of 95.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.37%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 82.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.10%, and the profitability remained at a good level. The asset quality continued to improve, and the company’s non-performing loan balance was 48.714 billion yuan, a decrease of 942 million yuan compared with the end of the previous year; The non-performing loan ratio was 1.10%, down 0.15 percentage points from the end of the previous year; The provision coverage rate was 268.73%, an increase of 49.90 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
In 2021, Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) achieved an operating revenue of 3.821 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 1.148 billion yuan, an increase of 20.72% year-on-year. The asset quality was further optimized. By the end of 2021, the company’s non-performing loan ratio was 1%, down 0.28 percentage points from the beginning of the year; The provision coverage rate was 411.10%, an increase of 105.79 percentage points over the beginning of the year.
For such a performance express, the comments of netizens are bright.
Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) below the announcement, netizens said “beautiful”, “really beautiful” and “there is no one here”, and others said that “the highlight is the decline in non-performing loans, which is great for such a large bank”.
Under the Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) announcement, netizens seem to be more “excited”:
real estate banks led the rise
Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose 15%
Reflecting the better than expected performance, the performance of the banking sector was also very eye-catching at the beginning of the year.
Data show that as of January 11, the banking sector has increased by 4.25% this year, ranking second among the 31 primary industries of Shenyin Wanguo, second only to the real estate sector, which has increased by 6.37%. Since the beginning of the year, the major indexes have recorded declines in varying degrees: the Shanghai index fell 2%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 4.27%, and the gem index fell more than 8%.
In terms of individual stocks, none of the 41 bank stocks fell. Compared with the whole market, as of January 11, there were 4688 stocks in the two cities, with 2233 rising stocks, and the proportion of floating red was only 48%, less than 50%.
Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose by more than 15%, ranking first in the sector. In the first six trading days of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose for five days and showed an accelerated trend. The single day increase in the first five trading days was 1.5% – 3.5%, and the sixth trading day was 5.08%.
The Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) just released the bright performance express, followed by Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , recording 12.39% and 10.46% respectively. The big man Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) also increased by more than 10 points, recording 10.39%, ranking fourth. Suning bank and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , which have issued performance letters, rose 9% and 5.3% respectively.
bank stock market is expected to continue
Most securities analysts are still optimistic about the follow-up market of the banking sector.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) analyst Shen Juan said she was optimistic about the plate repair market driven by three factors. In terms of performance, it is expected that the fundamentals of listed banks are expected to continue to improve in 2021, with a year-on-year profit growth rate of 12.9%. With the disclosure of some bank performance letters, it is expected to catalyze the market of the sector. In terms of policy, the tone is “stable”, the monetary policy is more proactive and promising, and the total amount + structural tools work together. It is expected to further reduce interest rates and reserve requirements in the first quarter of 2022, superimpose the pre issuance of special bonds, and protect the bank’s business environment. In terms of funds, since mid December 2021, funds have shifted from high valuation sector to low valuation sector, and the market style has changed.
According to Shen Juan’s analysis, the current P / B ratio of the banking sector is only 0.65 times, the quantile since 2010 is 1.75%, the dividend rate is close to 5%, and the configuration value is high. “We expect the market style switching trend to continue”.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Wang Yifeng also said that as of January 7, the weekly decline in the wind primary industry with a price to book ratio valuation of more than 80% in recent ten years ranged from – 8.2% to – 3.6%; Banks, real estate and other sectors with low valuation recorded better absolute and relative returns, showed signs of rotation of funds, and increased preference for undervalued sectors. It said that in terms of the performance of the banking sector from 2011 to 2021, the trend of the banking sector was better in the first quarter of most years; Especially in January, excluding 2020 affected by the epidemic, the winning rate of relative income recorded by the banking sector was as high as 90%.
Wang Yifeng gives three main lines for the investment logic of the follow-up banking sector: 1) the rebound theme caused by the weakening of real estate risk suppression, such as Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank; 2) The main line of sound operation of high-quality regional local banks, such as Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ; 3) At the beginning of the year, the main line of “Touyan” bank with stable credit supply, such as Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) .
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Liao Zhiming’s team is optimistic about Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) . It believes that Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) the current valuation is low, the bad assets are basically cleared, the degree of marketization is high, the corporate governance is relatively perfect, the strategy of building an investment bank and wealth bank is clear, the chairman clearly stated that the strategy remains unchanged, a blueprint is drawn to the end, and “the future development is promising”. Therefore, Liao Zhiming’s team adjusted the forecast value of net profit growth in Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) 2021 / 2022 to 24.1% / 15.0%, and gave it a target valuation of twice the 22-year price to book ratio, corresponding to the target price of 28.5 yuan / share, with large room for rise, maintaining the rating of “strongly recommended – a”.
The research team of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank is also very optimistic about Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , and released the research report entitled Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) : new leader, dragon rise, as the first variety of the year. “The performance in 2021 exceeded expectations and is expected to continue to exceed expectations in 2022. The performance is expected to become a catalyst for stock prices and promote the” dragon rise “of China Development Bank. The target price is maintained at 33.5 yuan, corresponding to 1.04 times of Pb in 2022, and the current price corresponds to 0.64x of Pb in 2022, with a current price space of 62%”.
On January 11, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) rose 3.73% to close at 21.4 yuan.
