On January 11, the securities times held a dialogue with Wang Qing, chairman and chief economist of Chongyang investment. Founded in December 2001, Chongyang investment is a well-known old private placement in China, with excellent fund performance. Wang Qing joined Chongyang investment in April 2013. He used to be an economist of the International Monetary Fund and chief economist of Morgan Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) Greater China.
Wang Qing believes that 2022 is a structural market and is optimistic about the investment opportunities of two types of stocks: first, fully adjusted leading companies, which are mainly concentrated in finance, cycle manufacturing, consumption, medicine, Internet and other fields; Second, growth stocks that have not been fully exploited by the market. In addition to manufacturing, growth companies in other fields such as consumption and services also deserve attention.
counter defense for attack structure cattle
Securities Times: looking forward to 2022, what do you think the overall macroeconomic situation will be? Now it is generally believed that the current economic pressure is great, and the enterprise profit will decline in 2022. What do you think?
Wang Qing: in 2022, the theme of our annual strategy is "anti defense is attacking structure", while in 2021, it is "both offensive and defensive". That is to say, we have a more positive view on the market this year.
According to the regularity of economic operation, the bottom confirmation is: Valuation bottom - policy bottom - market bottom - Credit bottom - economic bottom. The central economic work conference at the end of last year has clearly released the signal of policy shift, so now it can be determined that the current policy bottom has appeared. Before the end of the policy, the end of the valuation has also appeared. What needs to be judged now is, where is the bottom of the market? We tend to think that the moment is the bottom of the market. In view of the emergence of the policy end, it is predicted that there will be an inflection point of the credit cycle by the end of the first quarter of this year at the latest. After that, there will be an inflection point of the economy and the performance of Listed Companies in the middle of the year, that is, the credit bottom and the economic bottom will be clear one after another. Judging from this, we believe that the market is better this year than last year.
We believe that this year's economy will be low before the conference and high after the conference, and whether the policy will be loose before and tight after the conference depends on the trend of economic recovery in the second half of the year. Such economic situation and policy background are conducive to the performance of the capital market. But I don't think there will be a systematic bull market in 2022, because the systematic market needs to have at least two conditions: first, the economy should not be too bad and should be stable; Second, there are great expectations for the future direction of market-oriented reform and opening up. At present, these two conditions do not exist, so the overall market is still structural.
Securities Times reporter: how to grasp the structural market?
Wang Qing: investors need to understand the logic and laws behind the structural market. First of all, we believe that the economy runs low before and high after the whole year, with a range of 5% ~ 5.5%, and the performance growth rate of listed companies is in the range of 5% ~ 10%. However, the performance in the first half and the second half of the year will be different, and the profit distribution among industries will be different. Last year's profit distribution is more conducive to the upstream industry, and this year is more conducive to the performance of midstream and downstream listed companies.
Secondly, we need to understand the rebalancing after the extreme differentiation of A-share style. In the past few years, the market has very obvious differentiation characteristics. The first is the relative performance between cyclical stocks and defensive stocks. Cyclical stocks are highly related to the economic boom and have great elasticity, such as iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, chemical industry, etc; Defensive stocks have little to do with the economic boom and are relatively stable, such as mandatory consumption, medicine, etc. When the economy is prosperous, it is conducive to cyclical stocks, and when the economy is relatively depressed, it is conducive to defensive stocks.
The second is the differentiation between value stocks and growth stocks. When the capital environment is relatively loose, it is conducive to growth stocks, on the contrary, it is conducive to value stocks.
Therefore, on the whole, there are two most important cycles affecting the stock market: economic cycle and liquidity cycle. At present, the market liquidity is still tight and the boom is shrinking, which is not conducive to the performance of high boom and high valuation track, and is conducive to "value + defense" stocks, that is, undervalued "old blue chip" stocks, such as banks, real estate, energy, etc.
In the next three months, the liquidity may be improved, which will be conducive to the performance of "Defense + growth" stocks, that is, the so-called "new blue chip". After the economic transformation, the main lines of the new economy, such as consumption, medicine, science and technology and the Internet, are related to the economic boom, but not so obvious. They also have growth, but the growth will not be particularly high.
prefer two types of investment opportunities
Securities Times: specifically, what kind of investment opportunities do you prefer in 2022?
Wang Qing: for some time last year, the market was very popular with high boom tracks, and the valuation tolerance was very high. We believe that even a good industry and a good company should be treated rationally. A good industry with too high valuation is only a risk rather than an opportunity. The high boom of high boom tracks usually does not last, so don't be too radical.
2022 has more opportunities than 2021, but it is still a structural market. We prefer two types of investment opportunities: one is the leading company with sufficient adjustment. Affected by the expectation of economic downturn and industrial regulatory policies, Baima shares generally fell sharply in 2021, and the valuations of many companies are at recent or even historical lows. Under the background of macro policy shift to steady growth, profit expectation, regulatory environment and liquidity conditions are favorable for Baima shares. These stocks are mainly concentrated in finance, cycle manufacturing, consumption, medicine, Internet and other fields. As most of these companies are index heavyweights, their rise may bring exponential opportunities to the market.
The other is growth stocks that have not been fully exploited by the market. Growth is the eternal theme of the stock market. In the context of economic downturn, growth is more scarce. Many growth stocks in line with the characteristics of "specialization and innovation" performed strongly in 2021. In our view, the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry and import substitution are a long-term process, and there are still a large number of potential growth companies that have not been tapped. In addition to manufacturing, growth companies in other fields such as consumption and services also deserve attention, because the downward market environment can often better test the company's texture and growth potential.
Focus on four types of stocks: first, high-quality white horse stocks with valuations back to a reasonable range; Second, high-quality Internet leading companies that have been suppressed by events in the short term and are scarce in the A-share market; Third, the valuation has reached a historical low and the high-quality companies in the sustainable industry, such as finance and cycle manufacturing; Fourth, it is a leading company in advanced manufacturing industry segments with import substitution ability.
Securities Times reporter: will overseas markets, such as the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates, affect us?
Wang Qing: first of all, we judge that the United States will not start a long-term interest rate increase cycle. It is expected that U.S. inflation will ease significantly in the second half of 2022, limiting the tightening range and duration of monetary policy. Secondly, we can't use inertial thinking to look at the impact of overseas markets. In the past, China US economic cycles and monetary policy cycles were easy to resonate with the same frequency, but now they are not very synchronous, and even typical asynchrony appears, which may be a normal state. Therefore, the impact of the US interest rate hike on A-Shares is relatively limited and will be alleviated through the fluctuation of the exchange rate market. However, it will be more prominent for the Hong Kong stock market, because the Hong Kong dollar is linked to the US dollar. If you invest in Hong Kong stocks, you need to pay attention to avoiding the targets that are overvalued and supported by loose liquidity.
Securities Times reporter: who has more opportunities in the three markets of US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A-Shares as a whole this year?
Wang Qing: we believe that there are more opportunities for A-Shares and Hong Kong shares. Both are structural opportunities. Relatively speaking, there are more structural opportunities for a shares.
