On January 11, nwiko was listed on the gem and broke at the opening. As of the close, n Weike fell 6.07% to 60.19 yuan, below the issue price of 64.08 yuan.
At the beginning of 2022, Da Xin encountered "Waterloo" one after another: except for n Weike, Yahong medicine broke on the first day of listing, and Guoxin technology broke on the first day of listing. Institutional innovation has also encountered embarrassment, and the yield has plummeted from more than 10% in previous years to today's single digits. Is playing new really not "fragrant"?
new changes under the network
After the implementation of the "new rules for inquiry" of a shares, the IPO pricing has been deeply changed to the market direction, and the innovation is no longer "lying and winning".
The "new regulations on inquiry" is a new measure introduced to address new situations and problems such as "group quotation" of some institutions and interference with the issuance order. On September 18, 2021, the CSRC said that while strengthening the supervision of issuance and underwriting, it appropriately optimized the special provisions on the issuance and underwriting of initial public offerings on the gem, and Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange and China Securities Association simultaneously improved the business rules related to the pricing of new shares on the science and innovation board and the gem. Since the implementation of the "new rules for inquiry" for more than three months, offline innovation has also undergone new changes.
First, the model of "holding together to fight new" has gradually disintegrated. According to the data of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , the overall offline quotation concentration was significantly alleviated in 2021, and the number of effective prices increased significantly from single digits to more than 100, close to 200 in December 2021.
The second is the decline of new revenue offline. According to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) statistics, the new yield of class a accounts of RMB 200 million to RMB 500 million in 2021 is 6.2% to 12.3%. From the perspective of structure, the contribution of science and technology innovation board and gem to new development exceeds 80%; In terms of time series, the new revenue of each month shows a trend of first rising and then falling. In 2020, the new yield of class a accounts of RMB 200 million to RMB 500 million will be 10.5% to 17.4%. Compared with 2020, the revenue from new accounts in 2021 showed a downward trend, among which the revenue from class C accounts and large-scale accounts decreased significantly.
Third, the phenomenon of breaking new shares has gradually normalized.
breaking of new shares since 2021
is there any new bonus offline?
Most institutions believe that there are still dividends, but earnings expectations must be reduced. Some institutions said that considering the long-term impact of the "new inquiry regulations", although the reform of the main board registration system is expected to become a new growth point of new revenue, on the whole, it is expected that the new revenue will decline further in 2022.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) according to the research report, referring to the change trend of IPO issuance rhythm, fund-raising scale, winning rate, shortlist rate, listing opening premium rate, average price increase on the first day and other factors of various sectors since 2021, especially the changes of science and innovation board and gem after the new registration IPO regulations, it is expected that under the neutral holiday: for the class A / B / C 500 million yuan account, the annual new income may reach 3.24% in 2022 2.67% and 1.88%. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that under the neutral assumption, the annual new income of 200 million to 500 million class a accounts will be 2.5% to 5.3%.
In addition, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) according to the research report, when it is conservatively estimated that the total scale of IPO in 2022 is 500 billion yuan, assuming that the shortlisted rate of institutions participating in the inquiry is 70%, the class a of 200 million scale accounts can realize the new return rate of about 5.3%, the class C new return rate of about 2.4%, the class a of 500 million scale accounts can realize the new return rate of about 3.2% and the class C new return rate of about 1.7%.
are retail investors still "fragrant" after playing new?
Although the number of breaks is increasing, the new scale of online play, which is more related to individual investors, has not changed significantly.
According to the data, from September 19, 2021 to January 11, 2022, the average number of effective subscription households of 38 sci-tech innovation boards issued through inquiry was 5.55 million; From the beginning of 2021 to September 18, 2021, the average number of online issuance and effective subscription of 126 new shares on the science and Innovation Board was 5.51 million, and the scale was basically the same. Over the same period, the average number of effective subscription households of new shares on the gem was 14.12 million and 14 million respectively, and the scale was basically the same.
"From the current situation, there is no sign of continuous decline in the number of new players after the implementation of the new inquiry regulations." Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, said that on the one hand, the current pricing of new shares is relatively reasonable and not too high, and investors are willing to participate in subscription; On the other hand, the high premium rate of new shares over the past two decades has made most investors used to study carefully after winning the lottery. Therefore, the number of new shares has not decreased significantly.
In addition, the data show that the return on online subscription (winning rate X the rise and fall of the average price on the first day) basically shows an upward trend year by year.
Experts generally believe that the current online innovation is still worth participating in. "However, there are risks in the primary market, which is no longer an era of making money with your eyes closed. In 2022, you should \'open your eyes\' to make a new start, select blue chip stocks, and consider and analyze the rationality of pricing." Tian Lihui, Dean of the Institute of financial development of Nankai University, believes that.
At the same time, the new inquiry rules make the pricing of new shares more reasonable, and most new shares still have high investment value. "In 2022, there are higher requirements for investors\' investment and research ability, and it is necessary to do a good job in the research of new shares." Chen Li predicts that investors\' enthusiasm for participating in the subscription of new shares will remain high in 2022, and the number of people participating in new shares will not decline significantly. However, with the in-depth research of some investors, the abandonment rate may increase. In terms of new revenue, it is expected to fall compared with previous years.
In addition, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) research report said that if the proportion of break ups in the future is still high, resulting in a significant decline in online subscription enthusiasm, there may be two situations and possible evolution mechanisms: the proportion of abandonment of purchase further increases, and the underwriting pressure of investment banks increases significantly, so as to guide investment banks to make rational pricing; Online to offline call back, the offline winning rate is relatively improved, but this also means that the strength of offline losses is improved, so as to further restrict the high quotation behavior of offline investors and improve the rationality of initial pricing. Theoretically, the two mechanisms will jointly guide the market pricing to a reasonable balance, forcing online investors to pay more attention to the comprehensive quality and short and medium-term investment value of new shares. The agency believes that abandonment of purchase is the embodiment of online investors' rational participation in subscription. The income from online subscription will also continue to differentiate. For investors with stronger research ability, it is expected to continue to obtain new income through the value research of enterprises.
