The recent executive meeting of the State Council set the tone for the centralized purchase in 2022. It is necessary to focus on chronic diseases and common diseases, continue to promote the centralized purchase of drugs at the national level, and all localities carry out provincial or inter provincial alliance procurement of drugs outside the national centralized purchase. By the end of this year, the national and provincial centralized procurement of drugs will reach more than 350 in each province.
the investment logic of pharmaceutical sector has changed
Compared with the launch of the first centralized purchase in 2018, the tongdaxin pharmaceutical index decreased by more than 30%. After the launch of the sixth centralized purchase, not only the impact of the index was not obvious, but some listed companies participating in the centralized purchase were sought after by the market because of the “barefoot varieties”, and the stock price rose one after another.
“Barefoot varieties” means that the relevant varieties of pharmaceutical enterprises have no sales volume in the market, or the sales volume is very small. Once these varieties win the bid for centralized purchase, they will be able to obtain a significant increase in sales volume. Tian Xinjie, a researcher of Senrui investment medicine, told the Securities Daily that at the beginning of centralized procurement, the market saw a large price reduction of many drugs, which may affect the profits of pharmaceutical enterprises and have a large emotional reaction. In 2021, under the background of the normalization of centralized procurement, the market has become more familiar with centralized procurement. Most generic pharmaceutical enterprises are expected to fully release the market, and many pharmaceutical enterprises are out of bad luck.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) senior researcher Zhang Lichao told the Securities Daily that after the normalization of volume procurement, the investment logic of the pharmaceutical sector is changing significantly compared with the past, which is reflected in the re adjustment and re understanding of the valuation of the sector. The core competitive advantage of pharmaceutical enterprises in the future will come from the thickness of R & D pipelines and the ability to control costs, Sales capacity will be further weakened. On this basis, policy optimization, product innovation, transformation and upgrading will be the main investment logic of the pharmaceutical sector. In the medium and long term, high-quality pharmaceutical enterprises with scale advantages, strong independent innovation ability, diversified business layout and rich product pipelines will stand out. Through the survival of the fittest mechanism, the pharmaceutical sector as a whole will develop in an intensive, standardized and healthy direction.
It can also be seen from the current valuation changes of the pharmaceutical sector that a group of pharmaceutical enterprises that were regarded as “white horse stocks” in the past have lost the performance of stable growth in the past under the pressure of centralized procurement, and the valuation is gradually declining, while the market valuation of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises represented by Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) and Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) is about 100 times.
Zhang Lichao said: “The era of supporting medicine with drugs and driving sales has passed, and the ability of technological innovation and technological progress will become an important standard to measure the value and growth of pharmaceutical enterprises. Among them, innovative drugs and preparations, biological drugs and Chinese patent medicines are particularly concerned by the market, while generic drugs, expired patents, original research drugs and other sectors are gradually going to the sunset, and the effect of pharmaceutical companies\’ transformation under the pressure of centralized procurement is very obvious 。”
valuation of medical device stocks
Unlike the pharmaceutical industry, which has experienced the baptism of six national centralized procurement, the medical device industry only started the centralized procurement of cardiac stents in 2020, and the second round of centralized procurement of medical devices. Although the industry is expected to focus on orthopedic consumables, it has not been implemented. Tian Xinjie told reporters that compared with the centralized purchase of generic drugs, the centralized purchase of medical devices is more complex. It is necessary to consider the use and supply capacity of different regions, and the process is relatively slow.
The executive meeting of the State Council further pointed out that it is necessary to gradually expand the coverage of centralized collection of high-value medical consumables, and carry out centralized collection of orthopaedic consumables, drug balloons and dental implants concerned by the masses at the national and provincial levels respectively. Among them, the centralized collection of dental implants also responded to the voice of the masses, which was rarely mentioned in previous policies.
Chen Qiaoshan, a medical researcher who understands the Institute, told the Securities Daily that at present, there are three clear investment lines in the medical industry, namely innovative drugs, CXO (pharmaceutical R & D outsourcing) and high-end medical devices. From the IPO of medical companies in recent years, the number and scale of these three types of companies are the highest. Among them, the market attention of the medical device sector has been very high. Although it has experienced a round of national centralized purchase, from the perspective of valuation level, the valuation of the medical device sector is high, and is not limited to high-end medical device companies.
Chen Qiaoshan said, “On the one hand, the overestimation of the medical device sector is optimistic about the market and driven by policies; on the other hand, it is because the products of some medium and low-end medical device companies have not been clearly included in the centralized purchase, and they have the concept support of great health, which can even become the focus of market speculation. This situation will change significantly with the centralized purchase of medical devices, and many medical devices will be sold Listed companies will be squeezed out of the valuation water like listed companies of pharmaceutical enterprises. ”
Understand the picture: key points of “speed-up and surface expansion” for centralized purchase of drugs and high-value medical consumables
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