According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on January 12, in 2021, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.9% over the previous year, lower than the annual expected target of about 3%.
Industry insiders said that prices are expected to remain moderate in 2022. From the perspective of subdivided areas, the prices of some products will form a price difference from 2021 due to the impact of periodicity and industry attributes. Institutions suggest that investors can invest in A-Shares around these "price differences".
the year-on-year increase of CPI in December last year fell
Statistics show that in December 2021, CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, the year-on-year increase of food prices from 1.6% last month to 1.2%, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.22 percentage points. Non food prices rose by 2.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise by about 1.69 percentage points.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
On a month on month basis, in December 2021, CPI increased by 0.4% from the previous month to decreased by 0.3%. Among them, food prices increased by 2.4% month on month to a decrease of 0.6%, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.10 percentage points. Non food prices fell by 0.2% from flat last month, affecting the decline of CPI by about 0.17 percentage points.
It is noteworthy that pork prices are not booming in the peak season. The data show that in December 2021, the pork price decreased by 36.7% year-on-year, 4.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The month on month increase fell sharply by 11.8 percentage points over the previous month.
Industry insiders said that the current is the peak of annual purchase and the peak season of meat consumption. However, due to the end of winter curing and the acceleration of pig marketing, meat prices lack the power to rebound.
investment layout around "price difference"
Prices are expected to remain moderate in 2022. From the perspective of subdivided fields, the prices of some products will form a price difference from last year due to the impact of periodicity and industry attributes. Institutions suggest that investors can invest in A-Shares around these "price differences".
Specifically, one is the pig cycle. The rise in feed prices and the reduction in production efficiency led to the rise of the breeding cost line in this cycle, and the listed companies of pig breeding suffered more losses in 2021. According to the data released in October 2021, the pace of industry capacity clearing is accelerating, and the average weight loss. According to the historical leadership of breeding sows against pig prices, the agency expects that pig prices will turn up year-on-year around July 2022.
Second, snack food. In 2022, the scissors difference between CPI and PPI will narrow, and the gross sales difference of leisure food is expected to rise. Recently, some brand enterprises have issued price increase letters, which reflects that the pressure on the demand side has been significantly relieved. The recovery of industry demand is a trend, and the impact of price increase on sales is limited. With the narrowing of the scissors difference between CPI and PPI, the gross sales difference of leisure food is expected to rise.
Third, condiments. The pressure of condiment channel inventory is relieved, the prices of several leading brands are raised in peak seasons, and the inflection point of industry operation can be expected. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the channel inventory has been basically benign. With the marginal recovery of catering revenue, the performance of major condiment enterprises has shown a marginal improvement trend in the fourth quarter. Although the short-term operation is under pressure, in the long run, the upward pressure on costs will accelerate the differentiation and evolution of the industry pattern, superimpose the improvement of the industry access threshold, and it is expected that the market share will further concentrate on the leaders with obvious competitive advantages, and the long-term excess return of the head enterprises can be expected.
Fourth, auto parts. Car purchase demand is expected to be released in 2022. Considering that the current passenger car inventory is at a very low level at both the factory end and the channel end, and the purchase enthusiasm of downstream consumers is high, the passenger car market is expected to usher in a large-scale rebound at the sales end, and the auto parts enterprises are expected to benefit.
Fifth, express. The improvement of short-term profits is expected, and the long-term competition is expected to return to benign. The improvement of short-term fundamentals is determined, and the revenue center of Express single ticket is expected to continue to rise. The improvement of fundamentals in the next half year is expected to exceed expectations, which will catalyze the optimistic expectations of the market.
Six is lithium carbonate. The agency predicts that the global lithium carbonate gap will exceed 160000 tons in 2025, accounting for 13%. In other words, the global lithium carbonate supply and demand will remain in a tight balance in the next few years. Even if the recently rising prices will eventually fall, the lithium carbonate industry that has stood at the outlet will perform reasonably in 2022.
