Today (January 12), the three major A-share indexes opened higher, and then maintained a high shock. There was occasional decline in intraday performance, which did not hinder the overall strong shock pattern. From the disk point of view, power, UHV and other sectors led the rise, prefabricated dishes, cobalt lithium, tourism hotels, digital currency and other targets also performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) previously pointed out that the market structure has improved. However, it is still difficult to determine the beginning of the rebound, and the shock may stabilize or remain the main tone. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious in operation, control positions, less impulsive trading and wait patiently. In terms of industry, the middle line can continue to focus on national defense and military industry, electronics and non bank financial (Securities) industries, and it is recommended to wait and see for the short term.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] power
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that under the goals of “carbon peak” in 2030 and “carbon neutralization” in 2060, the energy field is the main battlefield of China’s carbon emission reduction, and the power grid is the hub to promote energy transformation and realize the national “double carbon” strategy. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the total investment in the power grid is expected to reach 3 trillion yuan, of which the State Grid plans to invest 350 billion US dollars (about 2.23 trillion yuan) to promote the transformation of the power grid; China Southern Power Grid will invest about 670 billion yuan to speed up the construction of digital power grid and modern power grid. At the same time, the proportion of intelligence in power grid investment has gradually increased. According to the general report of the intelligent planning of the State Grid, in the third stage, the State Grid continued to increase the scale of intelligent investment in transmission, transformation and distribution.
Guosheng Securities believes that with the continuous improvement of the policy environment of the power engineering industry chain and the continuous accumulation of financial resources, the relevant leaders are expected to accelerate the growth. In addition to UHV construction, other suggestions focus on: 1) power supply side: the development of scenery and green power in the 14th five year plan is accelerated, the new energy engineering business is expected to usher in sustained high growth, and the large energy base is expected to strengthen the leading position. 2) Distribution network side: with the increase of new energy consumption demand and the acceleration of distributed energy construction, distribution network is expected to become one of the key investment points of power grid in the future (distribution network accounts for about 50% in the “14th five year plan” investment plan of China Southern Power Grid). 3) Energy storage: according to the relevant planning of the 14th five year plan, compared with the 13th five year plan, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage is doubled, and the installed capacity of new energy storage is 10 times. The energy storage industry is expected to usher in rapid development in the 14th five year plan.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed and continued to recommend the core targets for the construction of new energy power system, focused on and recommended the leaders Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) of UHV and green power construction and operation of central enterprises, continued to develop the growth leader Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) of distribution network EPCO for photovoltaic, energy storage and power intelligent operation and maintenance, and the leader of enterprise energy efficiency management system Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) .
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that with the in-depth promotion of the new round of power system reform, the power market trading mechanism has been gradually improved, and the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity has continued to increase, which will gradually restore the commodity attribute of power, and realize the “rise and fall” of electricity price, which will help to promote the more stable benefits of power enterprises. As it is difficult to significantly reduce the fuel cost of coal power in the short term, it is expected that the market-oriented transaction price of some power consuming provinces in 2022 will still rise compared with the benchmark price, which will help to alleviate the pressure on coal power enterprises caused by the rise of fuel cost. In addition, the green power pilot transaction was launched. From the supply and demand of the green power market, the “environmental value” premium of green power may persist for a certain period of time, thickening the income of new energy operators. []
[Topic 2] cobalt lithium
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that as the demand of new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in the whole year of 22 years. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium plate is “volume” rather than “price”. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium plate in the whole year of 22, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that at the end of the year, the gap between supply and demand was enlarged again, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. In November, the retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains a bullish view on lithium prices; (2) Nickel: the purchasing demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchasing enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise. []
[Theme 3] prefabricated dishes
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that the lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of the prefabricated vegetable industry. Chinese households are increasingly dependent on industrialized food production and socialized food supply. Prefabricated dishes simplify the tedious steps of buying, washing, cutting and cooking, integrate quality, nutrition and taste, and cater to the lifestyle of young consumer groups under the fast-paced life. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China’s Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market.
The agency further pointed out that the explosive growth of takeout not only introduced a steady stream of passenger flow and orders into the catering industry, but also improved the convenience requirements. The decline of young people’s enthusiasm for studying cooking and the rise of women’s enrollment rate and employment rate have greatly reduced the time spent by households in the kitchen compared with the previous decade. Prefabricated dishes that can ensure the taste of dishes have become the first choice for family cooking. Suggestions: 1) specialized manufacturer of prefabricated vegetables: Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ; 2) Involved in semi-finished food and beverage enterprises: Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ; 3) Enterprises with food manufacturing business: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Longda food.
Open source Securities said that the prefabricated vegetable industry is in the stage of accelerated development and has broad development space. (1) B end: Prefabricated dishes can effectively reduce the cost of rent, raw materials and labor of catering enterprises, ensure the consistency of chain catering products, and have high operation efficiency; (2) C-end: Prefabricated dishes have high cost performance and good taste, which can effectively reduce the cooking burden of consumers and improve the quality of life. At present, the industry has obvious regional characteristics, the competition pattern is scattered, and it is still in the stage of horse racing and enclosure. In the future, with the gradual release of b-end and C-end demand, the industry has broad development space and a trillion market can be expected. []
[theme 4] tourist hotel
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that the digital transformation of the cultural tourism industry has accelerated and iterative innovation has been reborn.
The baptism of the epidemic forced the text travel industry to accelerate the digital transformation, generate new formats in combination with the new online economy, and develop immersive, one-stop and personalized tourism products. Rural tourism and ice and snow tourism are different from traditional tourism forms. They have a broad market and great development potential, and may become a new increment of the tourism industry in the future. In order to cope with the consumption change after the epidemic, cultural and tourism products need to carry out effective iterative innovation, improve service quality, accumulate and wait for the complete recovery of the cultural and tourism industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that for the hotel industry, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth. Since this year, although several rounds of epidemics have led to a lower than expected pace of industrial recovery, the leading enterprises have continued to open stores rapidly, single hotels have continued to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization has been continuously verified. Looking forward to 2022, there is still much room for improvement in China’s hotel chain rate and industry concentration compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading stores against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end. The improvement of the epidemic in Europe is also expected to reduce the drag of overseas business on performance.
In addition, for tourism and scenic spots, the recovery trend remains unchanged or there are opportunities for reversal. With several rounds of epidemic disturbance since June, the progress of China’s tourism recovery has shown a trend of high before and low after. Inter provincial travel and long-distance travel are still limited by epidemic prevention policies, and the performance of sector companies is generally under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, even if the demand side fluctuation is still inevitable, we still maintain confidence in the recovery trend. At the same time, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to ferment, which is also expected to give birth to the reversal opportunity of the plate market ahead of the fundamentals.
Dongguan Securities said that the industry will still be disturbed by the scattered epidemic in the short term, but China’s strict prevention attitude towards covid-19 virus can effectively control the spread of the virus. There is no need to be too pessimistic about covid-19 virus and its variants. With the improvement of covid-19 vaccination and the promotion of therapeutic drug research and development, the influenza trend of covid-19 remains unchanged, The leisure service industry is expected to recover slowly in 2022. In the long run, the epidemic forced the industry to reshuffle and reduce supply. After the epidemic was basically controlled, the prosperity of the industry is expected to accelerate under the action of demand recovery. []
