The first “great benefit” of the new energy track in 2022 came from the passenger Federation.
The new energy track, which had a bad start, suddenly ushered in good expectations. After hours on January 11, the China Federation of passenger cars issued a report saying that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a great positive. According to the newly released policy, the subsidy scale in 2022 is not locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will be realized throughout the whole year of 2022.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, said that the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space, and the amount of subsidy has increased by at least more than 10 billion. At the same time, the passenger Federation is expected to increase the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach about 25% in 2022.
Since the beginning of 2022, the new energy track of A-Shares has been continuously sold off by market funds. In the first six trading days, the accumulated evaporation market value of the new energy vehicle track of A-Shares exceeded 500 billion yuan. Some analysts believe that the latest report of the passenger Federation may alleviate the concerns of the market to a certain extent. On the 11th, the new forces of car making listed in U.S. stocks rose sharply, with ideal cars up more than 8%, Xiaopeng cars up 7.3% and Weilai closing up 3.8%.
great benefits of new energy track
After hours on January 11, the passenger car market information Joint Committee (hereinafter referred to as the “passenger car joint committee”) released the national passenger car market analysis report in December 2021, which clearly stated that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a great positive.
The Council pointed out that according to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical index system will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale is not locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, which will realize the subsidy throughout the whole year of 2022. With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of cost reduction ability, it is expected that the increment of new energy vehicles will be strong by the end of 2022.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of passengers, further said that the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space. The subsidy amount has increased by at least more than 10 billion, which should have an extremely obvious pulling effect on the car market.
The passenger Federation is expected to increase the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach about 25% in 2022; New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
The Federation said that the stability of policy subsidies will inevitably promote the sharp increase in the total sales of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2022 and continue to maintain a super leading position with a share of more than 50% in the world.
In addition, the ride Federation believes that with the implementation of the new energy subsidy, the price of some models will be fine tuned, and the consumption mentality will also change, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected. However, new energy vehicles continue to be popular, and there is a large backlog of pre delivery orders, so the sales volume of most new energy models will not be significantly affected by the decline.
This statement alleviated the market’s concern about the decline of the new energy subsidy policy to a certain extent. On the 11th, the new forces of car making listed in U.S. stocks rose sharply, with ideal cars up more than 8%, Xiaopeng cars up 7.3% and Weilai closing up 3.8%.
At the same time, the passenger Federation disclosed the sales data in December 2021. In December 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475000, a year-on-year increase of 128.8% and a month on month increase of 25.4%. From January to December, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%, far exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year.
This is in sharp contrast to the performance of fuel vehicles. In 2021, the retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 17.16 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. Throughout the year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles from January to December reached 14.8%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
The trend of new energy vehicles is strongly different from that of traditional fuel vehicles, realizing the partial substitution effect of new energy vehicles on the fuel vehicle market, proving the change of consumer demand through the market-oriented choice of users, and driving the vehicle market to accelerate the transformation to new energy.
new energy 2022 has a bad start
Since the beginning of 2022, the new energy track of A-Shares has been continuously sold off by market funds, becoming the plate with the largest adjustment range.
Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the leader of new energy track, rarely staged seven consecutive declines, with a decline of more than 8.7% in 2022 and a total market value evaporation of more than 119.6 billion yuan; In addition, Byd Company Limited(002594) also suffered six consecutive declines, with a decline of 10.8% during the year. According to statistics, in the first six trading days of 2022, the accumulated evaporation market value of A-share new energy vehicle track exceeded 500 billion yuan.
In fact, according to the news of the resumption market, there are not many substantive bad news about the new energy track. The main concern may be the decline of the new energy subsidy policy in 2022.
On January 1, 2022, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice of the development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and Application of new energy vehicles in 2022. The notice specifies that, in principle, the subsidy standard for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2020-2022 will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
It means that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. Compared with 2021, there is no subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles with a range of less than 300km in 2022; The subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a range of 300 km to 400 km will be reduced by 3900 yuan; The subsidy amount for pure electric vehicles with a range of more than 400 km will be reduced by 5400 yuan; The subsidy amount for plug-in hybrid models (including added program models) was reduced by 2100 yuan.
The market may be worried that after the decline of subsidies, new energy vehicle enterprises may pass on the reduced subsidies to consumers through price increases, or will hit consumers’ purchase enthusiasm, so as to slow down the growth of new energy vehicle sales in 2022.
In fact, under the influence of the declining subsidy policy, some new energy vehicle enterprises have opened the price increase mode. On December 31, 2021, Tesla raised the prices of rear wheel drive versions of domestic models model 3 and model y by 10000 yuan and 21000 yuan respectively, and Tesla China has confirmed that the price increase is related to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles.
On January 11, Xiaopeng automobile announced the price of all models after the latest subsidy. The price of Xiaopeng flagship car P7 increased by 4300-5900 yuan, and the price after the latest subsidy was 224200-409900 yuan; All the new P5 series increased by 4800-5400 yuan, and the price after the latest subsidy was 162700-229300 yuan.
In addition, the overall price of FAW Volkswagen id.4 crozz and id.6 crozz pure electric vehicles increased by 5400 yuan; Part u models of Nezha automobile will be increased by 3000-5000 yuan, and Part V models of Nezha automobile will be increased by 2000 yuan; The price of GAC AIAN LX increased by 4000 yuan, and the new aion s plus increased by more than 7000 yuan compared with 2021.
On January 11, the interpretation of the new energy subsidy policy by the passenger Federation responded to the concerns of the market to a certain extent. At the same time, the passenger Federation raised the sales forecast of new energy vehicles in 2022, which released a positive signal to the market.
Since the beginning of the year, another reason for the decline of the new energy track may be institutional position adjustment, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) chief market analyst Zhao Wei said that as soon as the ranking war of institutions ended in 2021, some institutions took profits from some positions in new energy and semiconductors to explore the main line of new investment for the ranking of the new year.
2021 public offering Champion: confidence in the general trend of new energy
Since 2022, the continuous decline of the new energy track has caused some public funds with heavy positions betting on the track to encounter “open door blackouts”.
Among them, the biggest difference is Cui Chenlong, the “champion” of public funds in 2021. The withdrawal range of Qianhai open source utility (005669) managed by him has reached 12.31% in the year, ranking the “bottom” of similar funds in the year.
By the end of the third quarter of last year, the top ten heavyweight stocks of Qianhai Kaiyuan utilities were mainly new energy, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and CGN new energy were the second, third, seventh and eighth heavyweight stocks respectively, all of which suffered a round of decline. In addition, its largest heavyweight stock, China Resources Power (0836. HK), fell nearly 20% during the year.
For the withdrawal of the net value of the fund and the adjustment of the new energy sector, Cui Chenlong said that he would try his best to calm the impact of such short-term fluctuations and would try to look at short-term fluctuations objectively and rationally. Have confidence in the new energy industry or the general trend, the fundamentals of the industry and the company are very healthy, and the future space is huge.
Cui Chenlong believes that new energy is a strategic investment opportunity, not a tactical investment opportunity. Looking at the penetration rate of electric vehicles from the perspective of the world, it is still at the single digit level, and the space for the future is very large. The acceleration, intellectualization and upgrading iteration speed of electric vehicles is much faster than that of fuel vehicles. Once the product power begins to gradually surpass fuel vehicles, more and more consumers will make more rational choices.
Zhao Yi, the “champion” of public funds in 2020, believes that 2020 is the leading year of new energy, and all “new energy +” companies will perform well in 2021, but this situation will be difficult to reappear this year. With the continuous improvement of the valuation of Companies in the new energy industry chain, there will be a “ceiling” in the rise of stock prices, Finally, it depends on the growth of the company’s performance.
future analysis
The passenger Federation raised its forecast: 6 million new energy vehicles and 5.5 million new energy passenger vehicles will be sold this year
Sure enough, the price went up! Experts on price increase of several new energy models: the decline of subsidies will not have a great impact
Cui Chenlong: the correction of the new energy track is normal
continued high boom! Hong Kong auto stocks rose sharply! Brokerage: 2022 traditional vehicles and new energy vehicles comprehensively recommend three main lines (with shares)
