Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Caixin Securities: wind power, as a cheap new energy will usher in long-term growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period
In the context of double carbon, the wind power industry has ushered in long-term growth. With the deepening of the whole society’s understanding of clean energy, the policy problems, technical and other economic problems, land and other resource problems faced by the development of wind power in China will be gradually solved; Similar to the development of photovoltaic, under the constraints of power grid consumption and natural resources, wind power, as a new energy that has achieved parity, will usher in long-term growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period from the perspective of demand and economy.
In the context of parity, the competitiveness of the wind power industry has increased rapidly. Stimulated by policies and parity, on the one hand, the price of wind turbines has decreased significantly, on the other hand, new technologies such as large-scale wind turbines have been upgraded rapidly. In the short term, the profitability of China’s wind power projects has been guaranteed, and the industry demand has warmed up rapidly; In the long run, this will also improve the global competitiveness of the whole wind power industry chain. China’s wind turbine manufacturing industry will become the leading force in the global market like photovoltaic in the future.
In terms of investment suggestions, (1) pay attention to the import substitution, export and profit improvement of parts: Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (2) Pay attention to the pattern change of the whole machine link and the improvement of the industry boom: Sany Heavy energy (IPO), Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ; (3) Pay attention to the beneficiary objects related to offshore wind power: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Haili wind power, etc. []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the certainty of the installed scale of Fengguang new energy is high new energy assets are still the core of the plate layout
The dark hour of thermal power has passed, and the revaluation of new energy assets is in progress. The rise of coal price has greatly reduced the profit of thermal power sector. With the decline of coal price and the promotion of market-oriented reform of electricity price, thermal power is expected to usher in profit recovery. At the same time, thermal power enterprises have stepped up the transformation of clean energy, and the new energy assets of thermal power enterprises have been revalued. Although the revaluation of new energy assets of thermal power enterprises is already on the way, with the continuous growth of new energy power installed capacity of thermal power enterprises, there is still room for the revaluation of new energy assets of thermal power enterprises.
Scenery clean energy: deterministic growth and long-term prosperity. Policy support drives the development of Fengguang clean energy. In the future, clean energy will become an important source of energy supply in China, and the growth of the installed scale of Fengguang new energy is highly uncertain. In addition, the stricter dual control of energy consumption and the construction of energy storage system will help to improve the consumption level of scenery new energy and increase the income of green power enterprises.
Wind power operators: the price of wind turbine continues to decline, the cost of wind power operators decreases, and the yield of wind power projects is thickened. The trend of large-scale wind turbines and the transformation and upgrading of wind farms drive the revenue of wind power projects while reducing costs. In terms of offshore wind power, the construction cost is reduced, and the trend of large-scale superimposed wind turbine is promoted. In the future, the cost of offshore wind power is expected to be further reduced, and the power generation efficiency of offshore wind power is expected to be improved, promoting the growth of offshore installed capacity.
With the deepening of the new round of power system reform, the power market-oriented trading mechanism is gradually improved, and the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity continues to increase, which will gradually restore the commodity attribute of power, and realize the “rise and fall” of electricity price, which will help to promote the more stable benefits of power enterprises. As it is difficult to significantly reduce the fuel cost of coal power in the short term, it is expected that the market-oriented transaction price of some power consuming provinces in 2022 will still rise compared with the benchmark price, which will help to alleviate the pressure on coal power enterprises caused by the rise of fuel cost. In addition, the green power pilot transaction was launched. From the supply and demand of the green power market, the “environmental value” premium of green power may persist for a certain period of time, thickening the income of new energy operators.
In terms of investment suggestions, the installed scale of Fengguang new energy is highly deterministic, and new energy assets are still the core of the plate layout: 1) traditional power enterprises that actively transform new energy assets, and there is still much room for new energy asset revaluation [China Resources Power], [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] and [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]; 2) PV operators are optimistic about the market performance of PV operators in the past 22 years. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ], [ Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) ], [ Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) ] and [Ganghua gas]; 3) Cost reduction and efficiency increase is still the long-term trend of the wind power industry. Sea breeze is expected to break out during the 14th Five Year Plan period. From the perspective of growth rate, sea breeze elasticity is relatively better. It is recommended to pay attention to [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ], [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ], [ Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) ] and [ Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) ]. The growth of the installed capacity of Fengguang drives the increase of energy storage demand. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the construction of pumped storage is accelerated. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) ]. []
Guosheng Securities: steady growth and continuous warming! New power systems with high investment efficiency are expected to become an important direction
With the continuous promotion of double carbon goals and the accelerated transformation of energy structure, power investment with high investment efficiency may become one of the key support directions of subsequent steady growth policies, and its financing environment is also friendly (the central bank launched carbon emission reduction support tools), and the investment is expected to increase significantly (the investment target of China Southern Power Grid in the 14th five year plan is significantly higher than that in the 13th five year plan by 51%).
With the continuous improvement of the policy environment of the power engineering industry chain and the continuous accumulation of financial resources, the relevant leaders are expected to accelerate the growth. In addition to UHV construction, other suggestions focus on: 1) power side: the development of scenery and green power in the 14th five year plan is accelerated, the new energy engineering business is expected to meet the sustained high growth, and the large energy base will strengthen its leading position. 2) Distribution network side: with the increase of new energy consumption demand and the acceleration of distributed energy construction, distribution network is expected to become one of the key investment points of power grid in the future (distribution network accounts for about 50% in the “14th five year plan” investment plan of China Southern Power Grid). 3) Energy storage: according to the relevant planning of the 14th five year plan, compared with the 13th five year plan, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage is doubled, and the installed capacity of new energy storage is 10 times. The energy storage industry is expected to usher in rapid development in the 14th five year plan.
In terms of investment suggestions, continue to recommend the core targets of new energy power system construction, focus on and recommend the leaders Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) of UHV and green power construction and operation of central enterprises, continue to develop the growth leader Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) of distribution network EPCO for photovoltaic, energy storage and power intelligent operation and maintenance, and the leader of enterprise energy efficiency management system Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) . []
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : continue to be optimistic about the installation demand and development space of the wind power industry related investment opportunities exposure
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale landscape base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power landscape is expected to be improved.
In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”, and we continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern change, such as tower, main shaft, casting, blade and so on; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials; 3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Be optimistic about the opportunities under the change of whole machine link pattern and technology change; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
The beneficiary objects include: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc. []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : the demand for power equipment is expected to increase core suppliers are expected to benefit significantly
The wave of electrification continues, the global prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise, Chinese battery and material enterprises accelerate the introduction into the global supply chain, the supply and demand of some links are expected to improve, the competition pattern of cells, diaphragms and other links is better, and new technologies promote the upgrading of the industrial chain.
The photovoltaic industry chain has entered the price reduction channel, and the demand is expected to be fully released. The asset light subdivision direction is preferred to meet the challenge of capacity cycle, and the localization of hjt equipment and battery industrialization are promoted in an all-round way; The inflection point of wind power boom is advanced, the demand for offshore wind power may be accelerated, and the price of bulk raw materials is loose, which is expected to thicken the profits of the midstream manufacturing industry.
In terms of power equipment, the increase in the installed proportion of new energy requires accelerating the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body. The power grid investment structure in the 14th five year plan is expected to further tilt to the fields of UHV, intelligence and power distribution. The demand for relevant equipment is expected to increase, and the core supply enterprises are expected to benefit significantly. []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : power transaction or Chengxin incentive industrial chain is in progress in large quantities
Recently, various provinces have successively issued policies on power market transactions in 22 years and made certain plans for transaction scale and electricity price. Among them, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Hebei provinces have completed power market transactions in 22 years: the total transaction power of Jiangsu Province is 264.729 billion kwh, with an average price of 467.76 yuan / MWh, of which the transaction price of green power is 513.89 yuan / MWh; The total transaction power of Guangdong Province is 254.164 billion kwh, with an average price of 497.04 yuan / MWh, of which the average price of green power is 513.89 yuan / MWh, an increase of 18.38% and 13.44% over the benchmark price. The total trading volume of Hebei Province is 66.69 billion kw, with an average price of 437.25 yuan / MWh, an increase of 17.54% over the benchmark price. The power market transactions in other provinces are still in progress in 2022, and the green power transaction price is expected to exceed the benchmark coal price.
The rise of green power transaction price is conducive to the transformation of energy structure of the whole society, and stimulates industrial and commercial users to continue to develop distributed photovoltaic and carry out power transactions in the post subsidy era. We expect that in 2022, under the general trend of new energy parity and marketization, the demand for photovoltaic power stations will continue to rise steadily, stimulating the demand for modules and inverters.
In terms of investment suggestions, the electricity market transactions stimulate the demand for installed capacity. It is suggested to pay attention to the inverter segments Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , etc; It is expected that the follow-up whole industry chain will continue to reduce prices, which is conducive to the outbreak of downstream demand. The demand in the first quarter is expected to be not weak in the off-season, and the profitability of component links will pick up. It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , etc. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: electrochemical energy storage increased by 12.5 times in five years, with a space of trillion blue ocean
In recent years, with a large number of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic replacing conventional units, interactive energy consumption equipment such as electric vehicles, distributed energy and energy storage are widely used. The new energy structure challenges the stability of power grid. In order to adapt to the grid connection and consumption of new energy under the situation of “double high” and “double peak”, it is urgent to promote the transformation and upgrading of power system.
UHV solves the problems of power supply and demand mismatch and new energy consumption. UHV can transmit electric energy such as southwest hydropower, northwest coal power and scenery to the eastern load center. During the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan, China will continue to strengthen the construction of UHV DC backbone channels and UHV AC synchronous power grids, and promote the interconnection of transnational power grids. It is estimated that the total investment of UHV during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach 300 billion yuan.
Energy storage is a high-quality flexible resource, which can cut peak and fill valley within the capacity range and maintain the instantaneous balance of power system. Electrochemical energy storage will occupy the absolute main force in the new energy storage. Energy storage: the power generation side depends on the ratio of new energy; The grid side is closely related to the peak load; The user side is greatly affected by the peak valley price difference. We predict that by the end of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China will reach 44.2gw, with a CAGR of about 68.4% during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Electrochemical energy storage has increased by 12.5 times in five years, and trillion blue oceans can be expected.
The change of energy structure brings about the change of distribution network structure. A large number of new energy and flexible loads will be connected to the power grid to meet the customized power supply demand. The boundary of source network load storage tends to be blurred and the level is richer. The demand for data collection, transmission, processing and application of source network load storage has increased significantly. The digital transformation of power grid is the general trend, and digitization depends on information construction.
Power grid informatization covers a wide range of contents. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the investment in power grid informatization accelerated. We predict that the power grid informatization investment will exceed 74 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of more than 120% over 2020, and the five-year CAGR will be about 17.5%, accounting for 12.8% of the total power grid investment from 6%. The market share of centralized procurement of information equipment by the State Grid headquarters is relatively concentrated, and the participation of private enterprises in information service is high.
In addition, the application of acquisition, terminal and non electric sensing equipment is the premise of power grid digitization. The customization of the new generation of smart meters has improved, the replacement demand has spawned an incremental market, and the value of a single meter has increased significantly. In addition, the smart IOT watt hour meter is expected to maintain a high growth rate. []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : it is expected that nuclear power construction will usher in a new round of rapid development of investment equipment manufacturers and operators will welcome long-term benefits
In the national energy work conference in 2022, it was mentioned that “under the premise of ensuring safety, orderly promote the approval and construction of nuclear power projects with reliable conditions”. Since 2021, five new units have been approved nationwide; The growth rate of fixed asset investment in nuclear power in the first nine months of this year was 51.5%, reaching a new high in recent ten years.
We expect that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China will approve 6-8 new nuclear power units every year, with a total start-up of about 40gw. With the increase of the number of newly started units, the cost of a single nuclear power unit is about 20 billion yuan according to the investment cost of 16000 yuan / kW of the third generation unit. We expect that the nuclear power construction will usher in a new round of high-speed development period of investment, and the annual investment in nuclear power will exceed 100 billion yuan in the middle and late period of the 14th five year plan. The acceleration of nuclear power construction is beneficial to the whole industrial chain, and equipment manufacturers and operators welcome long-term benefits.
At present, the localization rate of the third generation units has reached 85%. We are optimistic about nuclear power equipment suppliers with high gross profit and good competition pattern; It is optimistic that with the increase of units in operation, the commercial performance of equipment with strong consumable properties will continue to grow. Due to high technical and qualification barriers, operators will fully benefit from the continuous expansion of market space. Recommended target: equipment manufacturer – Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) ; Operators – China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) .
