Breeding: on April 23, the average selling price of lean pigs nationwide was 13.92 yuan / kg, up 11.45% month on week and down 42.95% year on year; The average loss of self breeding and self raising head is 377 yuan / head, and the profit of outsourcing fattening is about 158 yuan / head. Recently, affected by the recovery of demand, the hoarding of slaughtering enterprises and other factors, the national pig price has risen rapidly, the price of piglets and breeding pigs has rebounded significantly, and the sentiment of industry column filling has increased significantly. The short-term pig price rises too fast and faces certain adjustment pressure. The subsequent pig price may fluctuate upward gradually. As of March, the Bureau of Statistics announced that the number of fertile sows in stock was about 41.85 million, down about 3.3% month on month compared with 21q4. The excess capacity has been significantly removed since the second half of last year. The current level of sows in stock will make the supply and demand of the industry enter a relatively balanced state. It is expected that the pig price will remain at a reasonable level in the later period. In the absence of new external shocks, the later pig price has the kinetic energy of mean return, but the conditions for sustained high boom reversal are not yet available. The pig breeding sector took the lead in completing the valuation and repair of fundamentals, and paid attention to the catalytic effect of higher than expected factors such as capacity removal and pig price in the later stage. At the current stage, it is suggested to screen targets from multidimensional aspects such as operation and management level, capital chain security, listing growth elasticity and valuation matching, and focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and so on. The reversal of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) dilemma is still improving. Among small and medium-sized pig enterprises, it is suggested to pay attention to companies with relatively loose capital chain, and pay attention to Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , etc. After 20 / 21 years of industrial losses, the production capacity of Huangyu broiler has been cleared, ushering in the economic recovery, and Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) have benefited. For the white feather broiler business, the industry is facing the pressure of rising production capacity, downward pig price and upward raw material cost. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of bottom recovery of the industry and Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) transformation attempt.
Feed and animal protection: according to the data of sample enterprises of feed industry association, in the first quarter of 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China was 67.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, including 31.37 million tons of pig feed, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; 3.52 million tons of aquatic products, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%; 3.76 million tons of ruminants, 7.88 million tons of egg birds and 1995 million tons of meat birds. Continue to focus on recommending the leaders in the feed industry. Recently, the price of raw materials in the upstream has risen rapidly. On the one hand, the cost pressure is transmitted to the downstream through rapid price increase. The average price increase of feed is 400600 yuan / ton, of which the price of aquatic materials has fully covered the rise of raw material cost; On the other hand, under the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices, the advantages of leading enterprises in procurement, formula research and development and operation management will be fully reflected. It is expected that the profitability of a single ton of feed will be less affected. It is expected that the industry sales will still be subject to the downturn of the downstream boom, focusing on the research and development progress of African classical swine fever vaccine and Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) and other companies.
Planting industry: GM related policies are basically ready and pay attention to the actual rhythm of commercialization. Focus on Syngenta, Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc.
Risk warning: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, epidemic risk and policy risk.
