Focus this week: Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Jilin Carbon Valley, Warom Technology Incorporated Company(603855) ? Core view of this week: recent macro environment fluctuations have a great impact on the stock price of the equipment industry. We believe that the short-term impact has not been eliminated, and the overall judgment continues to fluctuate. At present, the price rise of upstream resource products and the steady growth of the government are still two relatively determined main lines, and the relevant equipment sectors such as coal machinery, oil service, nuclear power and hydrogen energy are expected to benefit.
This week's theme: analysis of factors affecting the short-term substitution degree of laser doping equipment? Laser doping technology can realize local heavy doping through the laser and improve the conversion efficiency. The introduction of laser doping technology into TOPCON battery technology has become a hot spot in the recent market. The introduction of laser doping technology is first applied in the field of perc battery: laser doping equipment forms high concentration doping in the contact part between metal grid line and p-type silicon wafer, and forms low doping in the area outside the electrode, so as to reduce the contact resistance between silicon wafer and electrode, reduce surface recombination, improve minority carrier life, and finally improve the conversion efficiency of 0.3% - 0.5%. The technical principle of introducing laser doping into TOPCON is basically similar. The difference only lies in that the doping source is phosphorus source, and the implementation is relatively more difficult. It is expected that the conversion efficiency will be improved by 0.2% - 0.3%.
In the long run: TOPCON laser doping technology is optimistic. It is expected to dilute the battery cost by 0.0099 yuan / W, which may become the standard configuration of new capacity in the future. For the economic analysis of laser doping equipment, it is usually necessary to comprehensively consider the increase of cost and value. 1) Cost: the core factor is mainly the increase of investment in laser doping equipment, and the potential factors include the change of processing yield, equipment operation cost, etc; 2) Value improvement: the core factors are mainly the improvement of conversion efficiency, and the potential factors include the energy saving of precision processing such as laser.
As there is no sufficient data to verify the potential factors, we mainly focus on the quantitative analysis of the core contradictions. Under the pessimistic assumption, the gain is 0.15%, the equipment investment increases by 40 million / GW, and the single w cost may increase, which is almost uneconomical; Under the optimistic assumption, the gain is 0.4%, the equipment investment is increased by 20 million / GW, and the cost of single w battery is reduced by about 0.1 yuan / W, which has significant economic benefits. Therefore, we believe that in the long run, it is expected to become the standard configuration of new capacity of TOPCON in the industry.
In the short term, the acceptance and popularization of TOPCON laser doping technology is gradual, and the potential factors limiting the improvement of permeability are as follows: 1) verification of mass production data: if the new technology is more widely used, it needs to be verified by more sufficient mass production data, including battery conversion efficiency, battery yield and component stability; 2) Coordination between equipment moving in and site: according to our calculation, about 4.5 or more laser doping equipment are expected to be configured for a single GW, and some site space needs to be reserved in advance for the introduction of new equipment; Therefore, even if the mass production proves that the technology has significant economy, the limited site space still brings certain restrictions on the introduction of new technologies with original / under construction capacity; 3) After sales service experience: to form a good closed loop in equipment sales, a strong after-sales service capability is needed to ensure that customers' needs can be solved professionally and timely, and convey market reputation; In the early stage of new technology introduction, the contradiction of insufficient operation experience of mass production line may last for a period of time.
The future market space of TOPCON laser doping equipment is about 600-2 billion yuan. Based on the above analysis, we believe that TOPCON laser doping technology will become the development trend in the future, but there is still some uncertainty about its rapid popularization in the short term. As for market space, due to the slight difference in cost reduction, the market penetration of technology may also have different performance. In an optimistic situation, the gain is 0.40%, and the equipment value is 20 million / GW, corresponding to the equipment market space of about 2 billion in 2025. On the premise of ensuring the profitability of the technology, under the pessimistic situation, the technology gain is 0.2%, and the equipment value is 40 million, corresponding to the equipment market space of 600 million yuan in 2025.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the application of laser doping technology in TOPCON battery field. It is suggested to focus on the core equipment enterprises of laser doping technology in advance: Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) etc.
Risk tip: there is error between the cost reduction calculation assumption and the actual situation, the production expansion of TOPCON battery is less than expected, and the downstream demand of photovoltaic is less than expected.
