Energy storage:
1. Companies in the energy storage industry such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and others released the annual report of 2021:
(1) in terms of revenue, it increased significantly in 2021: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021, the revenue of energy storage business was 13.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 601% 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 021: the energy storage business achieved a revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 168%.
(2) from the perspective of profitability, the overall decline in 2021h2: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 gross profit margin of energy storage business was 28.5%, year-on-year -7.5pct, compared with 2021h1 gross profit margin of -8.1pct. The main reason for the decline was the sharp rise in raw material prices 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 021 gross profit margin of energy storage business was 14.1%, with a year-on-year rate of -7.85pct, which was -7.1pct higher than that in 2021h1. The main reasons for the decline were the shortage of IGBT supply and the sharp rise of cell price.
(3) from the perspective of future development, it is expected that the revenue will still maintain a rapid growth momentum in 22 years, but the profitability will still be under pressure: according to the Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) performance press conference, the company’s revenue target of energy storage business in 2022 is 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200%. It is expected that companies in the energy storage industry will still maintain a rapid revenue growth in 2022. However, in terms of profitability, on the one hand, the price of raw materials remains high and the shortage of IGBT is expected to run through the whole year of 2022. On the other hand, the energy storage market is still in its infancy. Considering maintaining customer relations and strengthening brand construction, the company will accept some projects with average current profitability, which is expected to remain under pressure in 2022. After the shortage of IGBT is alleviated and the price of raw materials is reduced, the profitability of the industry is expected to be repaired.
2. Valuation: under the high growth rate of the industry, the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range. With the high cost of raw materials, we expect the global energy storage industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022. Starting from the phased high at the end of November 2021, as of April 22, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 45%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on April 22, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 / 2023 PE is 36 / 24 times 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 022 / 2023 PE is 34 / 24 times.
3. Investment: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market’s expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China’s steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on April 22, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 21 times.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
