According to the estimation of market researchers, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 16.4 million by 2025. At that time, the global demand for power lithium-ion batteries will reach 1160gwh (109wh), officially entering the TWH (1012wh) era. In 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output accumulated 219.7gwh, which means that the power battery will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years.
However, the current price of battery grade lithium carbonate is still higher than 400000 yuan per ton, far higher than that in previous years. The rise of raw materials has deeply disturbed many links of the industrial chain.
On the one hand is the rising demand for new energy vehicles, on the other hand is the high price of lithium materials. How should the industrial chain meet the TWH era?
cell equipment profit compression, calling for industrial standardization
The price of raw materials rises, and the life of the midstream link of power battery is not easy.
The price of raw materials increased, and the upstream lithium material enterprises realized substantial profits; Downstream auto manufacturers raise car prices and transfer costs. A large number of midstream manufacturers have become the ultimate bearers of the increase in raw material costs because of their poor bargaining powerP align = "center" power battery industry chain
Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) is an equipment supplier providing automatic integrated system for cell production Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) laser Sales Director Wei Ning said that as the price of upstream raw materials rises, the price of electric cells exported by electric cell manufacturers to vehicle manufacturers either does not change or fluctuates little, and the cost compression largely comes from electric cell equipment manufacturers.
Wei Ning said that before the price rise of raw materials, the company's gross profit margin can reach 40% to 50%, while the current gross profit margin has been compressed to 10% ~ 15%, and may even be compressed to less than 10%. Wei Ning said that large-scale enterprises such as Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) can continue to operate under the condition of profit compression, and many small equipment factories may withdraw from the market due to the impact of reduced profits. If the market situation cannot improve in time, the profit of equipment manufacturers may fall below 0.
This situation is largely due to the high degree of customization of equipment. Wei Ning said that the product types of cell factories and module factories have changed greatly, and the degree of customization of equipment manufacturers is very high. The iteration speed of cell products is fast. At the same time, it will also require cell equipment to accelerate the speed of R & D. The fast iteration speed requires equipment manufacturers to increase R & D investment, which affects the profits of equipment manufacturers to a certain extent.
In order to cope with the rising price of raw materials, reduce enterprise costs and improve profit space, Wei Ning put forward the optimization scheme of standardized manufacturing.
"Standardization, refinement and unitization are our development goals in the next stage." Wei Ning said, "we hope to design the equipment into a standardized product, let the cell manufacturers choose, and the manufacturers choose standardized equipment, which is not only convenient for talents to follow up production, but also convenient for after-sales service."
Wei Ning said that he hoped to strengthen joint research and development with cell factories in the future. "If we can develop jointly with the cell factory, we will not make the equipment manufacturers fall into a passive position," he said
In addition to cell equipment manufacturers, other midstream manufacturers also have profit space compressed. Based on this, Xiao Taiming, deputy general manager of Yiqi Lihe, gives several suggestions: first, suppliers should increase production capacity as much as possible and improve the voice of price negotiation. Second, manufacturers try to sign long-term supply agreements with upstream manufacturers to ensure supply, and sign agreements with downstream manufacturers to allow price fluctuations to deal with the possible uncertainties caused by market price fluctuations. In this way, midstream battery manufacturers can transmit the pressure of price changes of some raw materials to the outside and reduce risks.
two legged supply chain
"It will take 15 to 24 months to expand the production of lithium ore, and it will take two or three years to expand the production of new lithium ore. however, the expansion of the battery core factory can be completed in only 9 months to about 1 year." Xiao Taiming said that it is difficult to achieve a balance between supply and demand of lithium raw materials in the short term because the production expansion speed of the cell factory is faster than that of lithium ore.
In order to cope with the price fluctuation of lithium materials, all links of the industrial chain are actively taking measures to ensure the safety of their own supply chain. Leading automobile enterprises and battery enterprises are investing in upstream lithium mines.
Merco, chief analyst of the real lithium Research Institute, said that in the current situation of unstable lithium prices, midstream enterprises with weak anti risk ability should also strengthen cooperation with upstream raw material resources or downstream vehicle enterprises. "At least one of the two ends needs to be used, so as to ensure its own safety to the greatest extent." That's what Mercer said.
According to market estimates, by 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 16.4 million. At that time, the global demand for lithium-ion batteries will officially enter the TWH era, of which the demand for automotive power batteries will reach 919.4gwh In the context of the huge growth in the demand for lithium-ion batteries, materials, including lithium battery anode and cathode materials, will become more and more large-scale and standardized.
The bulk of battery materials will be good news for manufacturers with large supply capacity. However, for those suppliers whose market share is not too high, looking for differentiated competition strategy and providing differentiated products will be the way to break the situation. Xiao Taiming believes that for non head suppliers, in order to improve their competitiveness, they must find a more subdivided market, develop in the direction of personalization and specialization, and find market opportunities in more marginal fields.
cobalt less, cobalt free, new materials
"Material determines battery performance". Huang Xuejie said that power battery materials are bound to change.
In view of the possible technological changes brought about by the rise in the price of raw materials, Huang Xuejie put forward several major technological development directions: first, use less cobalt or even no cobalt. Second, use less lithium to supply more energy. Third, look for cathode materials with lower energy consumption.
Ternary lithium battery is the battery type with the largest energy density and the strongest endurance on the market, and cobalt is an important raw material of ternary lithium battery. In recent years, the cobalt content in ternary lithium batteries has shown a gradual downward trend. From ncm333 (the content ratio of nickel, cobalt and manganese is 3:3:3) to ncm523, ncm622 and ncm811, the cobalt content required in ternary lithium battery gradually decreases. Among the cathode materials of ternary lithium batteries, cobalt is the most expensive metal. Since this year, the price of cobalt has risen from less than 500000 yuan per ton to about 550000 yuan per ton.
Huang Xuejie said that at present, there are two routes for technological development. One route is to reduce cobalt content from 10% to 5%, and it is possible to reduce cobalt content to 2% ~ 3% in the future. The other route is completely cobalt free.
With regard to the next generation of battery materials, Huang Xuejie said that many schools and research institutions are studying new material systems, including solid-state batteries, new lithium salts, silicon carbon cathode materials, etc. there are many opportunities for such materials, which are also the focus of the Research Institute.
who can replace lithium battery
The endurance and charging and discharging speed of electric vehicles are the most concerned indicators of consumers.
These two indicators are directly determined by the positive and negative electrode materials and electrolyte materials constituting the cell.
Due to the high energy density of lithium-ion batteries using lithium cobalt oxide, lithium iron phosphate and other materials as cathode materials, lithium-containing materials have become the most common choice of cathode materials for new energy vehicle power batteries. For example, Byd Company Limited(002594) blade battery's cathode material is lithium iron phosphate, and Tesla automobile battery uses ternary lithiumP align = "center" energy density of different types of new energy power batteries
According to the calculation, each GWH lithium iron phosphate battery needs about 520 tons of lithium carbonate. At present, the mainstream ternary lithium battery ncm811 needs 620 tons of lithium carbonate, 750 tons of nickel and 100 tons of cobalt. The price rise of these three categories of metals will bring fluctuations in the power battery industry chain to a great extent.
In this case, will hydrogen fuel cells with less demand for metals become an alternative to new energy cells?
Different from the dry cell battery as an energy storage device, hydrogen fuel cell is more similar to a power generation device, which can directly convert chemical energy into electrical energy. At present, the energy supply of urban ground transportation is mainly battery, and hydrogen fuel mainly solves the problem of energy supply of long-distance transportation. Hydrogen fuel cells have been widely used in aircraft, ocean going ships, long-distance heavy trucks and other vehicles.
"The development of hydrogen fuel cells and lithium batteries are not substitutes. They promote each other." "Hydrogen fuel cell is a power generation device and lithium battery is an energy storage device. Energy storage devices are also needed in many practical vehicles driven by hydrogen fuel cells," Merco said
Huang Xuejie also believes that if the market demand for hydrogen fuel cells expands, it will not replace lithium batteries, but also promote the expansion of lithium battery market.
