From April 18 to 22, the “8th China commodity online forum week” hosted by Xinhu Futures Co., Ltd. was held. At the energy and chemical industry sub Forum on the afternoon of April 22, a number of front-line industry experts attended and delivered speeches, discussing the operation status and future development trend of energy and chemical industry under the background of “double carbon”.
Relevant persons of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange shared the idea of “giving full play to the function of futures and serving the real economy”. He mentioned that in 2021, in the face of the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market, Zheng Shangsuo maintained strategic concentration, the market scale reached a new level, the carrying capacity of the spot industry was further enhanced, the participation of industrial customers was significantly improved, the proportion of legal person positions reached a new high, and the futures function was effectively brought into play. Zhengshang Institute insists on putting risk prevention, strong supervision and stability promotion in a more prominent position; Full service, obey the national strategy, ensure supply and stable price.
Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and Li Haiyang, deputy director of the information and marketing department of the Chemical Industry Federation, introduced the “current situation and future development trend of the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industry”. He believes that the economic operation of the petrochemical industry mainly includes the following points: first, the growth rate of added value of the industry rebounded; Second, the benefits hit a record high; Third, the output of main products increased steadily; Fourth, the price has increased significantly; Fifth, foreign trade import and export maintained strong growth throughout the year; The sixth is to restore the overall growth trend of investment; Seventh, there are a large number of petrochemical futures, and the growth rate of trading volume and turnover is higher than the market average.
Li Haiyang said that under the background of “double carbon”, the petrochemical industry is facing opportunities and challenges. Challenges include: the growing demand for petrochemical products in the economy and society, maintaining and improving the competitiveness of petrochemical enterprises, and dealing with the relationship between industrial stock and increment. Opportunities include: boosting Petrochina Company Limited(601857) chemical industry to build a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand, promoting technological innovation and industrial upgrading of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) chemical industry, and promoting the coupling development of petrochemical industry and various industries.
Qi Mingzhi, general manager of Hongze research Hangzhou branch and chief analyst of energy and chemical, shared the “trading strategy of polyester Market in 2022”. He introduced the current situation of polyester industry chain. In terms of PX, the theoretical capacity growth rate will reach 43% in 2022, but the balance sheet is still healthy in the first half of the year. In the short term, although the stock removal continued from May to June, the range of stock removal decreased significantly; PTA is still in a large production cycle. More than 10 million tons of new units are planned to be put into operation this year. If they can be put into operation as scheduled, the capacity growth in 2022 will be higher than that in 2021. Considering the low level of px-4 plus the total profit table, PTA can continue to support the low level of px-4. Considering the superposition of PTA + 5, PTA can continue to support the inventory in the downstream stage. He also elaborated on the current problems faced by China’s energy and chemical products and the deduction for the future. He said that due to the strong impact of energy prices, the absolute price of energy products is more disturbed by costs than the traditional relationship between supply and demand in the past.
Lu Ming, an analyst in the home appliance sector of Kaiyuan securities, conducted a “white appliance market analysis”. He shared that in 2021, the overall sales growth rate of refrigeration and air conditioning reached 16% higher than expected. Strong industrial foundation, effective epidemic prevention and control and global manufacturing return jointly promoted the high growth of export scale; The investment and construction of infrastructure drives the application demand in the field of industry and commerce; The rising cost of raw materials has led to an increase in product prices. The price rise of bulk raw materials has a negative impact on the gross profit margin of household appliance enterprises. The elasticity of raw material price change to each category from large to small is refrigerator, air conditioner and washing machine. Since March, home appliance brands have intensively raised prices, which is expected to hedge the pressure of rising prices of raw materials. Considering that if the raw materials stabilize and fall in the future, it is expected to bring greater elastic repair.
Shi Xiaohan, R & D director of Xinhu futures energy sector, shared the “energy sector strategy of Xinhu Futures Research Institute”. She believes that there are two main characteristics of chemicals this year. One is that the price of chemicals is greatly affected by crude oil, and the other is that the price elasticity of chemicals is poor due to sluggish demand. Looking forward to the future, the price of crude oil will still be an important factor affecting the price fluctuation of chemicals in 2022. She said that in the long run, the focus of crude oil prices will move down as a whole, but the process is more tortuous.
For the future market trend of chemicals, Shi Xiaohan believes that the price focus of chemicals will move down with crude oil. Among chemicals, asphalt and PVC are suitable for multi matching, while others are recommended for air matching. Specifically, the demand for asphalt and PVC is more biased towards infrastructure and real estate, and there is a great possibility of development in the future. The demand for other chemicals is more inclined to the consumer end. Among them, methanol, polyolefin, Ta, eg and styrene are the pattern of high capacity pressure but poor downstream demand. A large number of new production capacity of urea are concentrated in the first half of the year, while the export demand is limited by the legal inspection policy, so it is difficult to transmit the overseas gap to China. Although the absolute price of rubber is low, it is still not recommended to be used as multi matching due to poor demand, futures premium and seasonal problems.
