The Shenwan trade index fell 3.31% during the period (4.18-4.22), outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.56 percentage points, ranking 11th in the performance of each sector. During the period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.87% and the sectors were mixed, with textile and garment (+ 4.09%) leading the rise, real estate (- 9.20%), steel (- 9.05%) and non-ferrous metals (- 8.08%) leading the decline.
Haitong wholesale and retail index fell 1.34%, supermarkets in sub sectors fell 1.15%, department stores fell 0.48%, professional markets fell 8.58% and professional monopoly fell 0.28%. Excluding the professional department stores in Shanghai and Shenzhen, it was 13.52 times higher than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen, which was 16.50 times higher than that in the same period, excluding the professional department stores and wholesale markets.
[core view]
\u3000\u30001. Under the current valuation level, some retail companies have highlighted the better safety margin and steady dividend. We select the core indicators from the dimensions of valuation level, revaluation value, cash flow, dividend rate and dividend rate for analysis: some retail companies have shown the characteristics of high dividend return, high asset value, healthy statement and steady profit, and have a better valuation safety margin. Those with good comprehensive performance include: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) , etc.
(1) relative valuation: ① P / E ratio: lower PE includes Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.Ltd(002818) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , etc; ② Price to book ratio: lower Pb includes Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.Ltd(002818) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) , etc; ③ Market sales rate: those with lower PS include Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , etc; ④ Multiple of enterprise value: those with low valuation include Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , etc.
(2) safety margin: ① cash content of net profit: those with good cash flow include Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , etc; ② Net operating cash inflow / income: the top ones are Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) , Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , etc; ③ Cash / market value: the top ones are Dashang Co.Ltd(600694) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , etc.
④ market value / self owned property: from the market value / self owned property of major department stores (Table 1), those less than 5000 yuan / m2 include Dashang Co.Ltd(600694) , Inzone Group Co.Ltd(600858) , Chang Chun Eurasia Group Co.Ltd(600697) ; Those less than 10000 yuan / m2 include Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Hefei Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000417) , ewushang, Maoye Commercial Co.Ltd(600828) , Hunan Friendship&Apollo Commercial Co.Ltd(002277) , Xinjiang Youhao(Group)Co.Ltd(600778) ; Those less than 20000 yuan / m2 include Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.Ltd(000715) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) Co.Ltd(600785) , Nanning Department Store Co.Ltd(600712) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Wenfeng Great World Chain Development Corporation(601010) . Most of the above companies have high-quality self owned properties in the core business district, which we believe has high revaluation value.
(3) profit Conservatism: ① dividend rate: those with good dividends include Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.Ltd(002818) , etc; ② Dividend yield: those with good dividends include Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.Ltd(002818) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , etc. ③ EBITDA margin: stocks with strong profitability include Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.Ltd(002818) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , etc.
\u3000\u30002. Policies to promote consumption and stabilize growth have been introduced one after another. We look forward to the continuous increase of follow-up policies to help release consumption potential.
Based on the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, the central and local governments have recently issued various policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize growth (Table 2), focusing on tapping the consumption potential of residents, promoting the expansion of total consumption and the improvement of quality, and constantly consolidating the basic role of consumption in economic development. Especially in the context of the recent sporadic and frequent outbreaks of the epidemic, local governments have also introduced various specific measures, including issuing consumption vouchers, increasing tax cuts and fees, and providing epidemic prevention subsidies, for the catering industry, wholesale and retail industry, sports and tourism and other industries greatly affected by the epidemic, so as to stabilize people’s consumption and ensure the healthy and orderly development of retail service enterprises.
We believe that the implementation of the above policies will not only promote the release of consumption potential and boost residents’ consumption confidence, but also bring positive performance contributions to relevant consumer enterprises.
\u3000\u30003. Investment suggestion: in the second quarter, the cosmetics and life service leaders with high recovery elasticity are preferred, and the supermarket still has defensive configuration value
Looking forward to the second quarter, we believe that some enterprises will promote the resumption of work and production in an orderly manner. In the second quarter, it is preferred to benefit from the recovery of high elasticity cosmetics and life service leaders, and supermarkets still have defensive configuration value.
(1) cosmetic medical beauty: it is expected that 618 will promote the compensatory effect after the epidemic. In the second half of 2020, as the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, the growth rate of cosmetics rebounded significantly, with a monthly growth rate of 9% – 32% above the quota from July to December. Recently, affected by the epidemic, offline consumption in some regions has stagnated and online express delivery has been blocked. We expect that the cosmetics medical and beauty industry may borrow 618 in the second quarter to promote demand replenishment and hoarding effect, driving high performance growth.
(2) supermarket: it has annual defensive configuration value. At present, the epidemic prevention and control department is in a critical period. As a key guarantee and supply enterprise, supermarkets are expected to have strong support on their short-term income side, benefit from competition, improve the consumption environment and optimize their operation in the medium term; Considering that the market has fluctuated greatly since the beginning of the year and the consumption environment is weak, the defense value of the supermarket is strong throughout the year, and the performance is expected to remain stable on a low base in the second half of the year.
Core recommendation: A-share: A-share: A-share, with the ‘ Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) , DEA shares; H shares, recommend meituan, Jingdong group and hailun company, and pay attention to the tea of Alibaba and Naixue.
Industry risk tips: consumption continues to be weak; Diversion of new business forms; Industry competition intensifies; Regulatory policy is uncertain.
