Recently, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar. According to the data, as of the closing on April 22, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.4875. It fell 1163 basis points in five trading days, with a cumulative depreciation rate of more than 1.8%, a new low since August last year.
With the depreciation of exchange rate, the profit of home appliance export business is expected to improve. (1) Income: the overseas income of most home appliance companies is settled in US dollars, and the depreciation of RMB will increase the income of the company’s statements; (2) Gross profit margin: raw material procurement, manufacturing and production of home appliance companies usually take place in China, so the cost remains unchanged while the income increases, driving the increase of gross profit margin. Typical beneficiary companies such as Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , Biyi shares, Fujia shares, etc; (3) Exchange gains and losses: if the RMB depreciates, the US dollar assets will generate exchange gains. However, some enterprises will carry out hedging, and the actual income will be offset.
The growth rate of domestic and foreign sales of air conditioners fell in March. According to the industry online data, the output of air conditioners in March 2022 was 16.21 million units, a year-on-year increase of – 3.7%; The sales volume was 16.67 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 4.9%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 8.29 million units, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.2%, and the growth rate was -0.9pct (the domestic sales volume in February was 3.84 million units, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.1%); The export sales volume was 8.38 million units, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%, and the growth rate was – 8.7 PCT (the export sales volume in February was 5.85 million units, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.3%).
In March, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment were – 4.3% year-on-year. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March 2022 were – 3.5% (- 10.2pct) year-on-year, and the total retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment above the quota were – 4.3% (- 17.0pct) year-on-year. (Note:
The figures in brackets are the month on month change of the growth rate of the current month compared with that of the previous month, the same below).
In March, the sales area of commercial housing was – 23.2% year-on-year, and the completed area was – 15.3% year-on-year. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, in March, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 23.2% (- 9.4pct), the newly started area of commercial housing decreased by 25.1% (- 10.2pct) and the completed area of commercial housing decreased by 15.3% (- 5.7pct) year-on-year.
Investment suggestions: recommend Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , steady growth of big power leaders; Steady growth of the real estate chain, it is suggested to pay attention to kitchen electric faucets Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) with improved bottom performance and Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , with sustained and good growth.
One week market review (2022.4.182022.4.22) the CSI 300 index fell 4.2% this week, the performance of the household appliance sector was at the upstream level of the whole industry, down 2.3%, the white electricity index (Shenwan) fell 1.9%, and the audio-visual equipment index (Shenwan) fell 2.5%.
Aowei 2022w16 (2022.4.112022.4.17) main category data: air conditioner: offline sales volume yoy-39.19% (mom + 95.7%), online sales volume yoy-30.74% (mom + 48.1%).
Refrigerator: offline sales yoy-34.90% (mom + 115.6%), online sales yoy + 8.94% (mom + 43.3%). Washing machines: offline sales yoy-50.92% (mom + 88.4%), online sales yoy-14.08% (mom + 20.5%). Range hood: offline sales yoy-48.35% (mom + 129.4%), online sales yoy-22.83% (mom + 12.4%).
Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises; Large fluctuations in exchange rates; Industry demand is weakening.
