This week’s special topic: 22q1 fund light industry allocation proportion increased, A-share textile and clothing allocation was basically flat, light industry sector fund position: fund light industry allocation proportion increased. By the end of 2022q1, the allocation ratio of the fund to the light industry sector was 1.05%, with a month on month increase of + 0.4pct, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25pct The proportion of fund positions in the light industry sector increased slightly, but the positions are still in the low allocation range. Position analysis of individual fund stocks: the concentration of leading shareholding was basically the same as that in the previous quarter, and the number of position funds in the home sector increased. Fund positions in the light industry are still concentrated in leading enterprises in the sector, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , and Chenguang shares rank among the top five. Among the top ten companies with positions, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) and Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) have the largest increase in the number of holding funds, 13 and 7 more than 21q4 respectively. Position analysis of land stock connect: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) and Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) account for a high proportion, and foreign positions change respectively.
Textile and clothing sector fund position: fund A-share textile and clothing configuration is basically flat. By the end of 22q1, the allocation proportion of the fund to the A-share textile and clothing sector was 0.31%, with a month on month decrease of 0.01pct and a year-on-year decrease of 0.02pct. The fund position of Q1 textile and clothing industry was in the low allocation range. The allocation ratio of textile manufacturing / clothing and home textile was 0.04% / 0.26% respectively. The position of textile manufacturing fund increased and the position of clothing and home textile decreased. Position analysis of individual fund stocks: positions are concentrated in leading enterprises, and the number of holding funds has declined. By the end of 22q1, Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) (the revenue of aquaculture accounts for 83%), Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , and Li Ning ranked among the top three in the number of holding funds. The number of holding funds led the textile and clothing industry with 55, 52, and 50 respectively, with the exception of Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) and Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) holding funds leading; Li Ning, Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Anta sports, Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ranked among the top five in the total market value of the fund’s heavy holdings. Position analysis of LST: LST’s allocation of individual stocks Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) , Dazzle Fashion Co.Ltd(603587) in the A-share textile and clothing sector declined slightly.
[papermaking sector]: it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of pulp and paper with pulp and paper integration and diversified business. Recently, due to the repeated epidemic situation in some areas and other factors, the domestic demand of pulp and paper is weak, the peak season is coming to an end, and the prices of some kinds of paper show signs of loosening and decline. At present, the cost of wood pulp is still at a high level, the low-cost wood pulp inventory of paper enterprises is reduced, and the cost pressure is rising significantly. It is suggested to select a pulp and paper leader with pulp and paper integration, multiple paper types and multiple businesses. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the low-level layout opportunity of special paper sector. The price of special paperboard has strong landing ability, the valuation of the sector is very cost-effective, and the demand side of some kinds of paper (such as food card) continues to be in a high boom. Compared with bulk paper, special paper has double barriers at the production and sales end, and the implementation of price increase is expected to be better under the direct selling mode.
[e-cigarette]: provinces have successively issued retail license plans, and the overall number is within a reasonable range. This week, the provinces successively released e-cigarette retail license plans. As of April 22, a total of 26900 e-cigarette retail license plans have been released in 18 provinces and cities across the country, and 15 provinces have not disclosed the specific number of licenses. According to the provincial announcement, the retail license will be refunded one by one (the total number of licenses will remain unchanged). In addition, Yueke, Magic Flute, yooz and other brands cancel the exclusivity of exclusive stores (Yueke has begun to return the deposit of exclusive stores one after another), and shopkeepers can purchase other brands. The number of provincial planning licenses is related to the economic level and population of each province, which is within a reasonable range.
[jewelry diamond]: the trend of cultivating diamond continues to be verified, and the demand for jewelry wedding is delayed due to the epidemic.
Cultivation drill: in March, India’s cultivation drill import reached a new level and continued to verify the industrial trend. In March, India’s imports of cultivated diamonds amounted to US $203 million, with a year-on-year / month on month increase of 157.0% / 31.0%. The import volume has exceeded US $200 million and reached a new level, and has been higher than the export volume since December 2021, expanding month on month. We continue to verify our previous judgment that the expansion of CVD production in India has not affected the supply of cultivated drilling. At present, the supply of the industry is insufficient, and the growth rate is still restricted by China’s capacity expansion. The uncertainty of the natural drilling market may prompt manufacturers to dabble in cultivated drilling. The short-term mismatch between supply and demand of natural drilling and the expectation of high inflation may increase the demand for alternative cultivated drilling.
Gold jewelry: repeated epidemic or delayed release of wedding demand for gold jewelry. In March, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry fell significantly among optional consumer goods, mainly because jewelry is more dependent on the trial wearing of offline scenes. The epidemic has reduced the passenger flow of offline stores, and jewelry as optional consumer goods has been greatly impacted. We expect that brands with a large proportion of Direct stores in the first-line market will be greatly affected by the epidemic, while brands with a large proportion of dealers in the low-line market will have a relatively small impact. In addition, the Russian Ukrainian crisis promoted the periodic rise of gold price, and the upward fluctuation of long-term gold price is conducive to gold consumption.
[household sector]: the valuation has entered the safe range, and Baima has entered the value allocation range. The current overall sector valuation reflects the current situation and expectation of the completion of real estate and the decline in sales. However, in terms of the fundamentals of individual enterprises, the leading white horse has reflected the fundamental toughness in the past three years. In the near end, the growth rate of head customization and software home furnishing enterprises in the same period is generally higher than that of social zero furniture. In the medium and long term, software furniture has great room to improve its penetration, and the customization leader continues to expand the channels such as assembly. The government work report of the two sessions mentioned the pillar and supporting role of real estate, and the potential policy catalysis is expected to boost the industry expectation. We believe that the current leading household white horse has entered the long-term allocation value range.
[textile manufacturing]: the continuous spread of the epidemic in March had a negative impact on offline consumption, and the retail sales of clothing decreased by 15.1% year-on-year. We believe that the textile manufacturing sector dominated by export manufacturing may have structural opportunities, and its overall prosperity is better than that of brand clothing dominated by domestic demand. Under the influence of the global epidemic, China’s manufacturing risk control and supporting advantages of the industrial chain are prominent. The performance of OEM enterprises is stable and benefit from the transfer of orders under the foreign epidemic. Under the normalization of the epidemic, the release of production capacity is expected to accelerate.
[functional shoes and clothing]: sports shoes and clothing: from the performance of 22q1, the income and profit of sports clothing leaders have increased significantly, and there are opportunities for continuous improvement of concentration; Down jacket: the concentration of head brands has continued to improve, and the epidemic has had little impact on down jacket sales since March; Outdoor sports: steady overseas demand and broad growth space in China have driven the two-way improvement of export and domestic sales of corresponding products. The industrial and private brand business of China’s top professional outdoor sports suppliers grew rapidly in 2021; Casual children’s wear: under the trend of consumption upgrading, the concentration of children’s wear and adult casual wear has increased, and the sales volume and price of children’s wear have increased simultaneously.
Investment advice
The paper sector continues to be optimistic about [ Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) ], and the company has strong competitiveness α Property, the growth rate in the short and medium term is expected to significantly lead the industry, with the dual driving force of high profit growth and valuation repair.
It is suggested to pay attention to [ Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) ]: the company has the capacity of multi paper types and flexible production and delivery, quickly respond to downstream demand fluctuations, stabilize costs and maintain stable profits; [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ]: the company is a leader in China’s medium and high-end decorative base paper, and continues to improve its scale and market share under the trend of high-end and centralization of the industry.
Bulk paper is optimistic about [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], cultural paper price increase and landing + large capacity of Guangxi base will bring performance improvement; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], the white card business accounts for the highest proportion, and is expected to fully benefit from this round of market under the favorable industry pattern and high export boom.
In the home furnishing sector, it is suggested to pay attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] with the continuous high growth of decoration income; 22 [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] of deepening the reform of management system; [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] with initial multi-channel layout results; The channel reform will be gradually realized to the performance, and new categories will be developed based on the original strong sofa channel and gradually increased [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ]; [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] focusing on the main business, strong development of independent brands and accelerating channel expansion; Continue to make efforts to create the second growth curve of mattresses, and [Minhua holdings] is in a strong upward channel in market share and performance.
It is suggested to cultivate diamond manufacturers [ Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) ], [ Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) ], [ North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) ]. It is suggested to pay attention to the “Chow Tai Fook” which has brand and product advantages in the high-line market and accelerates the expansion of stores in the low-line market; And [ Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ] to accelerate the opening of stores after the provincial representative model was launched in 2021q3; Build the brand strength of Guochao fashion innovative design, and accelerate the development of [ Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) ] franchise stores at the channel end.
The e-cigarette sector suggests paying attention to the production leader less affected in the transition period [smore international].
Risk tips
The duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuated, and the growth of optional consumption was lower than expected
