Key investment points
The certainty of infrastructure investment in the “steady growth” of the economy in 2022 is increasing, and there is an expectation of further overweight in the policy. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022 will be flexible. This week, the people’s Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of transport successively issued documents to increase the financial support for key investment projects, cooperate with the issuance of special bonds of local governments and project supporting financing, support local governments to carry out infrastructure investment in an appropriate advance, and encourage venture capital to participate in the construction of major highway transportation infrastructure, new transportation infrastructure and other projects. By the end of March 2022, all provinces had issued about 1.25 trillion yuan of special bonds, accounting for 86% of the amount issued in advance, an increase of 1.23 trillion yuan over the same period last year, and the issuance progress was significantly ahead of schedule. From the perspective of specific capital investment, special bonds were mainly invested in infrastructure projects such as water conservancy projects and municipal construction. We believe that the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission further responded to the government’s policy requirements of “stable growth”, Increase financial support for infrastructure construction, and the role of infrastructure investment in underpinning “steady growth” has become increasingly prominent. From the policy guidance of the central bank, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the actual issuance of special bonds, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022 is expected to be flexible.
Compared with the infrastructure market in 2018, this round of infrastructure market is expected to show “the same steady growth, different market context”. The reason for the end of the market in 2018 is that the fundamentals have not been fulfilled. The orders and infrastructure investment of Listed Companies in the first quarter of 2019 are lower than expected, and the performance of market leader China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) q1 in 2019 is lower than expected. The context of this round of market is slightly different, and the policy of infrastructure support continues to increase; From the perspective of enterprise orders, Q1 orders of some construction enterprises increased explosively; The market leader China Railway Group Limited(601390) performance of this round is highly deterministic. We judge that this round of infrastructure market will last longer.
It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the capital construction market and the opportunities of “double carbon” main line. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of construction informatization and construction leasing market under the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry. 1) Pay attention to the capital construction market. In terms of traditional infrastructure targets, [ China Railway Group Limited(601390) ], [ China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) ], [ China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) ], [ China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) ], [ China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) ], are recommended along the direction of traditional infrastructure central enterprises with multi theme catalysis; Recommend [ Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ], [ Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) ], [ Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) ], along the direction of local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises with performance flexibility; Along the “new business” direction of green power operation asset revaluation, find the maximum common divisor of infrastructure underpinning + new energy, and recommend [ Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ], [ Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) ], [ China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) ]; 2) Pay attention to the opportunity of “double carbon” and recommend [ Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) ], [ Hongrun Construction Group Co.Ltd(002062) ], [ Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) ], [ Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) ]. 3) The development of domestic building BIM is accelerated. It is recommended that the BIM track has the first mover advantage [ Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) ]. 4) Pay attention to the construction rental market opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to the rental leader of aerial work vehicles [ Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) ] and aluminum formwork [ Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) ].
This week (from April 16 to April 22), 10.15 billion yuan of special bonds, 1.719 billion yuan of general bonds and 92.559 billion yuan of refinancing bonds were added.
Risk warning: default risk of local financing platform, unexpected new orders, further tightening of PPP normative policies, tightening of macro liquidity and further tightening of real estate regulation policies.
