Market review: affected by the epidemic in China, the auto sector continued to adjust this week. This week (4.18-4.22), the overall SW automobile sector was – 2.87%, ranking 9 / 31 SW passenger cars – 1.55%, SW commercial vehicles – 6.08%, SW auto parts – 3.59%, SW Auto Services – 3.53%, SW motorcycles and others + 2.62%. From the perspective of valuation level, the overall PE of Shenwan automobile sector was adjusted back to 33.12 times, 54.3% of the nearly five-year history, and the PE of auto parts sub sector was adjusted back to 32.40 times, 35.7% of the nearly five-year history.
Recent situation of the industry: from April 11 to 17, 158000 passenger cars were wholesale, a year-on-year decrease of 51%, a month on week decrease of 7% and a month on month decrease of 51%; The retail sales of passenger cars was 187000, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, an increase of 8% over last week and a decrease of 33% over the same period last month. Steel, aluminum, copper and other raw materials and freight prices are still high.
Actively promote the resumption of work and production, and gradually improve the logistics efficiency. Many auto enterprises and parts suppliers shut down or reduced production. Since Shanghai issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation, by April 22, 70% of the 666 key enterprises on the first white list have returned to work and production, and the capacity utilization rate is also improving. SAIC, Tesla and others have realized the offline of the whole vehicle, and actively promoted the resumption of relevant supporting enterprises. In terms of freight logistics, through the construction of a series of important material transfer stations in the Yangtze River Delta, combined with non-contact transportation such as changing drivers and hanging, the logistics efficiency has also been improved in the past week. With the implementation of more guarantee measures, the progress of resumption of work and production is expected to continue to improve.
Investment suggestion: Although the market is affected by short-term factors, automobile electrification and intellectualization are still the general trend of the industry. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to three main lines: electrification & lightweight: the boom of new energy demand is determined, and the penetration rate continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , etc; Intellectualization: intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are accelerated, and the intelligent configuration of new cars is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Improvement of core shortage: traditional automobile enterprises are greatly impacted by core shortage. With the improvement of supply, enterprise operation is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely motor. At the current time point, the market sentiment is at the bottom, waiting for the orderly resumption of work. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) .
Risk tip: the industry’s terminal sales are less than expected, the manufacturer’s R & D or new car release progress is less than expected, the upstream raw material supply is insufficient or the price rise leads to the decline of industry profits, etc.
