Core conclusion
Driven by high-quality content, many sub industries have ushered in inflection points: 1) driven by high-quality dramas, variety shows and other contents, the number of members of long video platform has increased steadily, entering the space cycle of price increase, and ARPU value will continue to grow. The cost of the series has been effectively controlled and the ROI has been continuously improved. In addition to mango TV, which has always been profitable, other long video platforms are also expected to usher in a breakeven turning point in the second half of 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) ( Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) . SZ). The performance of the series is excellent, and the variety scheduling has been significantly improved since 2q22. 2) The total use time of short video users is expected to continue to maintain double-digit growth, the commercialization of the platform is strengthened, and the growth rate of advertising and e-commerce revenue is far higher than the average of the Internet industry. It is recommended that China pay attention to Kwai -W (1024.HK) and continue to reduce the marketing cost rate, and expect its Chinese business to usher in a profit turning point in 4Q. 3) The trend of high-quality games remains the same. The version number was restarted in April, bringing increment to the second half of the year. Summer Games are expected to be intensively released. It is expected that the market scale of mobile games will continue to grow throughout the year, and the growth rate in the second half of the year is higher than that of the whole year. It is suggested to pay attention to netease-s (9999. HK), Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ( Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) . SZ), G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ( G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) . SH) and Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ( Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) . SZ) with strong R & D strength and rich version number reserves.
Driven by the epidemic repair, the film industry is expected to usher in high growth in the second half of the year. According to cat's eye film, the box office of the industry in the second half of 2021 was 19.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 40% compared with the same period in 19 years, which was mainly affected by imported films. The box office of imported films in 2021 decreased by 60% compared with 19 years. Affected by the repeated epidemic, the cumulative box office in 2022q1 fell by 22.7% year-on-year. Referring to the recovery of cinemas after the previous epidemic, under the condition of sufficient film supply, the viewing demand is very strong, and the box office of several popular seasons in 2021 is at an all-time high.
Since June, many Hollywood blockbusters have been set overseas and are expected to be introduced into China. We expect the performance of imported films to rebound significantly in the second half of the year. At the same time, with the national epidemic effectively controlled, domestic films will resume release one after another. We expect that under the low box office base of 21h2, the film industry is expected to usher in high growth in the second half of this year. It is suggested to pay attention to Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) ( Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) . SZ) and Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) ( Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) . SZ) with increasing market share.
Driven by technological innovation, we are optimistic about the Internet platform embracing the digital economy for a long time. The mobile Internet industry has shifted from traffic driven to technology driven. During the transition period, the performance of leading Internet companies is generally under pressure, and the growth rate slows down. 4q21 Tencent / Baidu / meituan non GAAP net profit attributable to parent increased by - 25% / - 41% / - 174% respectively. It is expected that in the second half of 2022, Chinese Internet companies will continue to promote the standardized operation of platform economy, increase the scale of high-tech fields such as automatic driving and SaaS, embrace the digital economy, enable the real economy and pay attention to long-term sustainable development. On the other hand, we believe that yuanuniverse still has catalysis in the second half of the year, such as the large volume of equipment shipments in the domestic XR industry and the launch of new generation products such as oculus and apple, which is expected to greatly drive the popularity of the consumer end. It is suggested to pay attention to Baidu group SW (9888. HK), meituan-w (3690. HK) and Tencent Holdings (0700. HK).
Risk warning: policy supervision risk; Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Member / advertising revenue is less than expected; The game flow is not as expected; Technological development is less than expected; Risk of decline in user size or user stickiness; Cost control is less than expected.
