Report guide
In mid April, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports was - 5.2% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade throughput was - 4.9% year-on-year.
The container throughput of the eight hub ports was - 5.7% year-on-year, of which the throughput of foreign trade / domestic trade containers was - 4.1% and - 9.9% year-on-year. Throughput is still resilient under the impact of the epidemic, and it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the adjustment of port rates in the follow-up.
Key investment points
Port data in mid April
(1) overall: cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports: year-on-year - 5.2%, of which foreign trade throughput was - 4.9% year-on-year. In mid April, cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports was - 5.2% year-on-year; Among them, the foreign trade throughput was - 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.7 PCT compared with - 2.2% year-on-year in early April.
(2) container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports was - 5.7% year-on-year. In mid April, the container throughput of the eight hub ports was - 5.7% year-on-year (previous value + 0.7%). The year-on-year throughput of foreign trade containers was - 4.1% (previous value + 4.9%) and that of domestic trade containers was - 9.9% (previous value - 11.7%), mainly due to the impact of covid-19 pneumonia in the Yangtze River Delta.
(3) throughput of key goods and port inventory
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year - 0.4% (previous value - 13.3%); In terms of port deposit, year-on-year + 2.8% (previous value + 7.3%). Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year - 1.6% (previous value + 2.7%); In terms of port storage, from the perspective of 45 ports nationwide, the port storage of iron ore on April 22 was 147 million tons, an increase of 13.0% over the same period last year. Coal: in terms of throughput, Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port - 7.6% year-on-year (previous value + 7.4%); In terms of port deposit, according to the caliber of Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua, the year-on-year rate was - 5.2% (previous value + 7.8%).
The adjustment of charging policy is expected to have a neutral impact on the port, and continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container handling rate. The adjustment of charging policy is expected to have a neutral impact on the port: on March 2, the notice of the Ministry of transport and the national development and Reform Commission on reducing and merging port charges and other related matters adjusted the charging methods of two ports: 1) cancel the government pricing of port facility safety premium, change it to market adjusted price, and include the port operation lump sum fee as a sub item, And the charge shall not be higher than the original charge standard, which is not reduced or cancelled; 2) Adjust the charging structure of pilotage (shifting) fees by category and implement price adjustment in different proportions. The directional reduction of fees is not related to the port revenue.
Continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container handling rate: on December 1 last year, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) announced that the handling fee of 20 foot and 40 foot empty and heavy containers of shipping companies will be increased by about 10% from January 1, 2022; On December 3 last year, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) announced that the transfer fee of 20 foot heavy containers for domestic trade was increased by about 50%; On December 8 last year, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that from January 1, 2022, the lump sum fee for port operation of ordinary foreign trade heavy container barge gathering mode will be increased by about 8%, and the fee for ordinary foreign trade heavy container trailer gathering mode and empty container will be increased by about 19%; On February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling charges of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers in foreign trade were increased by about 14% and 12% respectively.
Sensitivity measurement: price adjustment is expected to bring revenue increment, but there is no marginal cost. We assume that the price of comprehensive container business in each port will increase by 10%. It is estimated that:
1) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : in 2021, the container revenue is 14.906 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company is 14.682 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increases by 10%, the static profit elasticity is about 8%.;
2) Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) 2021 container related revenue is 6.748 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.332 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increases by 10%, the static profit elasticity is about 12%;
3) in 2021, the revenue of qqct (51% equity participation) in charge of container business was 4.189 billion yuan, and the Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) total net profit attributable to parent company was 3.964 billion yuan. If the container price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 8%.
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) , Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) , Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct's price adjustment of handling charges is the adjustment of the published price, but it should be noted that the difference between the published rate and the actual agreed rate signed with the shipping company does not rule out adopting different price strategies for customers of different shipping companies.
Latest monthly port data
(1) in March, we mainly monitored the cargo throughput of coastal ports: year-on-year + 1.1% (previous value + 2.5%) (2) containers: in March, the container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 1.8% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade container throughput was + 3.9% (previous value + 2.7%), with an increase of 1.2pct.
(3) throughput of key goods
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, the year-on-year rate in March was - 1.8% (the previous value was - 14.9%); Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year in March was - 1.8% (previous value + 4.6%); Coal: in terms of throughput, the year-on-year rate in March was - 5.9% (the previous value was - 6.3%) (the Port Association focuses on monitoring the port caliber).
(4) key coastal ports
In March, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports in Shandong Province increased rapidly, and the Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) cargo throughput increased by + 9.6% year-on-year in the same month.
Tangshan Port Group Co.Ltd(601000) , Ningbo Zhoushan port increased by 7.5% and 4.6% respectively on a year-on-year basis.
In March, the throughput of foreign trade goods in Guangxi increased significantly year-on-year, Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.0% and Qinhuangdao port with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.8%.
Key ports: in March, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large city caliber) achieved a cargo throughput of 57 million tons Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) foreign trade cargo throughput and container throughput increased by + 3.1% and + 6.3% respectively year on year
Latest shipping rate index
Baltic dry bulk index (BDI): on April 22, the BDI index was 2307 points, an increase of 13.4% over April 12 and a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%.
Crude oil transportation index (BDTI): on April 22, the BDTI index was 1465 points, a decrease of 16.0% compared with April 12 and a year-on-year increase of 143.0%.
Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI): on April 22, the SCFI index was 4196 points, a decrease of 0.77% compared with April 15 and a significant year-on-year increase of 48.1%.
China's export container freight index (CCFI): on April 22, the CCFI index was 3110 points, a decrease of 0.60% compared with April 15 and a significant year-on-year increase of 67.8%.
Investment advice
Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) : the logic of quantity and price is gradually verified.
Benefiting from the growth of container business driven by the expansion of routes and the release of new liquid bulk cargo capacity in Dongjiakou port area, the liquid bulk cargo throughput increased. Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large market caliber) completed 630 million tons of cargo throughput in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%, and 23.71 million TEU of container throughput, a year-on-year increase of - 5.2%; In terms of rates, on January 28, 51% of the equity of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) group was transferred to Shandong Port Group free of charge to complete the industrial and commercial change registration, and the actual controller of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) shares was changed to Shandong SASAC, further promoting the improvement of regional port pattern in Shandong Province. It is expected that the rate side will continue to improve. In addition, on February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling charges of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers for foreign trade will be increased by about 14% and 12% respectively. The logic of volume and price is gradually verified. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be 1.170 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : the leader of underestimated value, benefiting from the location advantages, continues to be optimistic about the growth of the company's main port industry. Benefiting from the steady promotion of multi business lines, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be 5.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.6%. In addition, with accelerated capital operation and multi-party collaborative empowerment, the company plans to spin off and list its holding subsidiary Jinjiang shipping, and plans to strategically invest Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) 372 million shares. After this issuance, the company is expected to hold 23.08% of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) shares. Under the recent epidemic prevention and control, Shanghai Port still maintained operational resilience. From April 1 to April 21, the average daily container throughput of Shanghai Port still exceeded 100000 TEUs, including 1670 TEUs per day of sea rail intermodal transport, an average increase of 25.8% over the first quarter.
Risk warning: deterioration of Global trade; The duration of the global epidemic exceeded expectations; The port policy was less than expected.
