Core view: the epidemic situation and cost are still disturbed, waiting for the bottom recovery of the industry. From April 18 to April 22, the food and beverage index fell by 1.8%, ranking fourth in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 2.4pct Among the sub industries, beer (0.3%), other food (0.0%) and meat products (- 0.3%) are relatively leading. The recent performance of the consumer sector is good, because under the background of the decline in the number of new cases of the daily epidemic, the consumption expectation recovers slowly after the epidemic is expected to appear an inflection point, resulting in relative gains for the consumer sector represented by food and beverage. From a fundamental point of view, we judge that the industry is in the process of bottoming. The biggest uncertainty in the industry lies in the duration of the impact of the epidemic on demand. The supply of food and beverage in East China is mainly affected by the epidemic situation in three to four months. March April is the off-season of consumption, and the overall impact on the whole year is controllable.
In the context of increasing the national attention to the epidemic, we are optimistic that the impact of the epidemic on consumption will be maximized in the second quarter, and the follow-up should converge upward with the rhythm of epidemic control.
During the year, the pressure on enterprises mainly came from the downward demand caused by the epidemic and the upward price of cost raw materials. The end of the first quarter may become the time node for the market to re-examine the annual profit forecast. We believe that when the industry recovers, the market probably favors the epidemic damaged stocks with undervalued value and high prosperity. The logic is that after the opening of the consumption scenario, some industries can have rapid consumption compensation or rebound, and companies with fast growth and good growth may become the target of the market. The annual dimension is the first to promote Baijiu, mainly to high-end and secondary high-end baijiu. Baijiu has the compensatory demand of business banquet, and is less affected by raw material price, and has stronger demand and profit toughness. In the off-season, the impact of Baijiu on liquor is limited. Some liquor companies are very slow in off-season control, while waist products are added as performance growth. The beer sector is optimistic about the enterprise profit elasticity brought by price increase and structural upgrading in the medium term. The short-term epidemic affects sales, but the logic of upgrading continues to be verified. Recovery after the epidemic should be a good choice. The demand for dairy products is stable, the competition has not intensified, and it has high allocation value. Two ideas for condiment: one is to allocate the leader at the end of the long cycle; Second, seize the opportunity of high growth in quarterly performance.
Recommended portfolio: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) forecast 2022Q1 revenue, profits respectively 18%, 19% growth, showing the Spring Festival high-end Baijiu sales trend, but also reflects the sales reform effect is obvious. The e-commerce platform was officially launched, and the channel reform went further.
The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) forecast 2021q4 to achieve revenue growth of 11% and net profit growth of about 11%. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of movable sales is good. After the management of the company is stable, it is expected to carry out the work of raising prices. It is estimated that the double-digit growth rate will be completed in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is estimated that the revenue and profit from January to February will increase by more than 35% and 50%, mainly due to the significant improvement of product structure, the growth momentum under the epidemic situation remains unchanged, and the annual performance is still possible to exceed expectations. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) released the annual report. In 2021q4, the revenue benefited from the price increase to achieve accelerated growth, but the increase of cost price put pressure on the profit. In 2022, the planned revenue and profit will increase by 12%, which will be realized by reducing cost and increasing efficiency, accelerating market transformation and product innovation. It is suggested to lay out the bottom and hold it for a long time. (5) Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) : the profit margin of the company will increase in 2022. The main sources are: first, the effect of price increase at the end of the year should appear throughout the year; Second, the cost reduction is relatively clear; Third, the cost rate shrank accordingly. The performance release has a band market, and it is expected that the profit of the statements in the second and third quarters may increase relatively.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
