Recent industry view: the meeting of the Finance Committee in March pointed out that we should keep the economy running within a reasonable range and keep the capital market running smoothly. In addition, the meeting studied relevant issues: with regard to macroeconomic operation, monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, and new loans should maintain a moderate growth; As for real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model. We believe that this is conducive to the stability of asset quality in the banking sector. In addition, we believe that the banking sector is still expected to show good performance this year, and we maintain the industry’s “better than the big market” rating. The company first promoted Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (asset quality improved, undervalued value high safety margin), Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) (asset quality improved, scale increased rapidly), Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (the company’s retail business promoted the gradual recovery of interest rate spread and the non-performing rate remained at a low level), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (wealth management, investment banking and green credit were driven in many aspects) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (risk control of retail business improved, and wealth management business grew rapidly).
LPR remained unchanged in April. In April, the LPR of one-year period was 3.7%, and the LPR of more than five-year period was 4.6%, which remained the same as that in March. We believe that considering the US interest rate hike in March and the MLF not adjusted in April, it is normal that the LPR has not changed this time. We believe that the subsequent decline of LPR still depends on whether the United States continues to raise interest rates and China’s economic recovery after the epidemic.
Q1 the proportion of banks with fund positions increased. The position data of Q1 fund in 2022 has been fully disclosed. According to our statistics, among the positions of all institutions, the market value of banks accounts for 4.03% of the market value of institutional positions, an increase of 1.09 percentage points compared with the end of 2021. The proportion of positions held by institutions of almost all banks has increased to a certain extent, and the market value of banks held by Q1 institutions in 2022 has accounted for 9.55% of the circulating market value of banks.
We believe that this fully proves that institutions recognize the logic of stable growth and are optimistic about the fundamentals of banks.
Recent performance review: from April 15 to April 22, the banking sector fell by 2.95%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by 1.24 percentage points. Among them, state-owned banks increased by 0.64%, joint-stock banks decreased by 5.21%, urban commercial banks decreased by 1.06%, and rural commercial banks decreased by 3.42%.
In terms of individual stocks, the highest gains and losses were: Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) up 2.52%, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) up 1.68%, and Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) up 0.65%. The rise and fall were listed as follows: Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) decreased by 5.21%, Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) decreased by 5.43%, and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) decreased by 9.25%.
Risk tip: the solvency of the enterprise has declined and the asset quality has deteriorated significantly; Major changes have taken place in financial regulatory policies.
