The proportion of 2022q1 fund’s heavy positions in food and beverage continued to decline, and the rise of the sector in the first quarter was lower than the market. The proportion of 2022q1 food and beverage fund’s heavy positions was 7.0%, down 0.5pct month on month, and the position was at a new low in recent two years. In the molecular industry, Baijiu allocation ratio dropped from 6.5% of 2021Q4 to 6% of 2022Q1. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu, the number of liquor holdings in the first quarter is decreasing, but the number of shares of some liquor holdings is increasing, indicating that most of the funds are in the liquors, but the remaining fund holds relatively concentrated liquor stocks, and the overall market share of Baijiu heavy duty still has a drop. The proportion of dairy products and meat products in the non Baijiu food beverage increased slightly.
2022Q1 the proportion of non heavy Baijiu food fund has dropped from 0.02pct to 1.02%. We predict that some areas will be affected by the epidemic, and the consumption may still be weak in the second quarter, but the industry is in the bottom stage. The inflection point of the epidemic should be seen in the second quarter, and it is expected that the position of food and beverage may rise slightly at the end of the second quarter.
Top ten analysis: the number of funds held has generally decreased, and the proportion of market value of most Holdings has dropped. (1) from the number of funds held by food and beverage companies, the number of funds held by other companies has decreased except Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . The change in ranking is that Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298)
Among the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund, food occupies 4 seats, while consumer companies still occupy the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund as a whole in 2022q1 market, and food and beverage occupy 4 seats: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . Among the top ten heavyweight stocks, consumer companies occupy six seats (in addition to food and beverage companies, there are Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ) in the pharmaceutical industry), which is still the mainstream of configuration.
Investment suggestion: the industry is bottoming out and pay attention to the recovery of consumption
We judge that the industry is in the process of bottoming. Industry uncertainty lies in the duration of the impact of the epidemic on demand.
We are optimistic that the impact of the epidemic on consumption will be maximized in the second quarter, and the follow-up should converge upward with the rhythm of epidemic control. We believe that when the industry recovers, the market probably favors the epidemic damaged stocks with undervalued value and high prosperity. The logic is that after the opening of the consumption scenario, some industries can have rapid consumption compensation or rebound, and companies with fast growth and good growth may become the target of the market. The annual dimension is the first to promote Baijiu, mainly to high-end and secondary high-end baijiu. Baijiu has the compensatory demand of business banquet, and is less affected by raw material price, and has stronger demand and profit toughness. In the off-season, the impact of Baijiu on liquor is limited. Some liquor companies are very slow in the off-season, while the waist products are added to the growth of performance. The trend of follow-up is upward. The beer sector is optimistic about the enterprise profit elasticity brought by price increase and structural upgrading in the medium term. The short-term epidemic affects sales, but the logic of upgrading continues to be verified. Recovery after the epidemic should be a good choice. The demand for dairy products is stable, the competition has not intensified, and it has high allocation value. Two ideas for condiment: one is to allocate the leader at the end of the long cycle; Second, seize the opportunity of high growth in quarterly performance.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, slowing consumer demand, rising raw material prices and food safety risks.
