Q1 land market cooling continues
In 2022, Q1 real estate development enterprises purchased 13.39 million square meters of land, a year-on-year increase of – 41.8%; The transaction price was 67.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 16.9%. Sluggish sales combined with the impact of tightening capital, the year-on-year decline in land acquisition area of real estate enterprises has continued to expand since September 21; After the opening of multi City centralized land supply in March, the decline of trading volume and price narrowed for the first time. In terms of energy levels, in the first quarter, the cumulative transaction area of land in 300 cities was 284 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 29%, a new low in recent two years; Among them, the first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier cities were – 55%, – 34% and – 23% year-on-year respectively. Since March, the amount of land investment in the first and second tier has recovered slightly, and the downward pressure on the third and fourth tier is still increasing. The monthly premium rate of Q1 in 22 years is significantly higher than Q4 in 21 years, but the land auction rate is still high under the disturbance of market uncertainty.
The first batch of soil rackets showed cold and hot differentiation
According to our statistics, as of April 22, the first batch of land auction has been completed in 14 cities, with a total of 253 land lots, 20.22 million square meters of construction area, a total transaction price of 230.5 billion yuan and an average premium rate of 4.8% in 14 cities. The overall heat of the first batch of soil auction in 22 years is slightly higher than that of the third batch in 21 years, and the premium rate and flow auction rate are improved to varying degrees. In terms of subregions, the heat differentiation among the first batch of local shooting cities is obvious; In terms of structure, the internal sector differentiation of some cities is more significant. The current round of land transfer policy relaxation around the reduction of the threshold and the increase of supply has driven the transaction recovery of the first tier and core second tier cities. However, due to the differences in local policy environment and property market performance, the differentiation of transaction heat is also obvious. We look forward to the second deregulation of follow-up regulation policies and the release of more high-quality core plots, so as to promote the restoration of land acquisition enthusiasm and market confidence of enterprises.
State owned and central enterprises actively seize opportunities to cover positions
In terms of enterprises, as of the statistical date, China Construction Development Corporation, China shipping and poly took the lead in the amount of full caliber land acquisition during the year, and the premium rate was significantly lower than that in the 21st year. In the first quarter, the participation of private enterprises in local auction continued to decline. Among the top 30 real estate enterprises, only four private enterprises such as Longhu and Yuanda accounted for 7.2% of the top 30 (17.4% in 2021), and the rest were state-owned enterprises and local deep cultivation platforms. Under the low expectation of the sales end and high debt repayment pressure, private enterprises still invested cautiously. We believe that the recovery of private enterprises’ enthusiasm depends on 1) the fulfillment of positive policy expectations on the supply side; 2) Continuous supply of high profit space and high-quality land; 3) The phased stabilization and recovery of the sales market are jointly promoted by other factors. At present, the state-owned central enterprises seize the opportunity to actively cover their positions, improve the profit margin, stabilize the medium and long-term sales expectations of enterprises, and provide power for the mild recovery of the market in the next stage.
Affected by the epidemic, the turnover of new houses, second-hand houses and land markets continued to expand this week. The turnover of new houses market this week was 3.11 million square meters, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 55.11%, a decrease of 12.25 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 162.65 million square meters, and the de industrialization of the first, second, third and lower lines slowed down. The second-hand housing market traded 1.21 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 44.18%, down 8.30 PCT compared with the previous month The land market traded 13.91 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 36.57%; The total turnover was 17.9 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 54.62%; The national average premium rate was + 1.79%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -15.26pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was – 9.20%, down 6.30pct from last week, ranking 31 / 31 higher, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.02pct In terms of H shares, the wind Hong Kong real estate index this week was -5.93%, down 4.92pct compared with last week, ranking 7/11 higher, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.84pct; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was – 9.43%, down 7.62pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and alpha investment suggestions of M & A: the future beta of the industry depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the rhythm of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service. It is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Yuexiu real estate, China Construction Development International and other local state-owned enterprises.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The decline of industry sales exceeded expectations; Because the implementation of urban policies is less than expected
