Recommended combinations: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) .
Focus this week: 1. Express sector: express industry and company operation data in March 2022; The State Post Office held a teleconference on ensuring the smooth operation of the postal express industry and promoting the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain; 2. Aviation sector: demand bottomed, expenditure continued, and supply pressure prolonged.
Views of this week: (1) express sector: policy orientation, changes in e-commerce business flow and the evolution of enterprises’ own competition are forming a joint force to promote the operation of the top three e-commerce express enterprises to improve substantially. Unlike the market’s differences on demand, cost and price, especially the competition pattern, we believe that Yunda and Yuantong, the leaders of e-commerce express, have poor multiple expectations including volume, price, cost, profit and valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the high configuration cost performance of Zhongtong, Yunda and Yuantong; SF has a clear attitude towards cost reduction and efficiency increase, guaranteed performance improvement, and optimized product structure, cost structure, pricing structure and other three dimensions. It is expected that this year, the company will be in the intertwined stage of gradual recovery of performance and steady growth of parts volume. The bottom of medium and long-term value is proved and squatting is for better take-off. Looking forward to 20232025, the company’s time effective logistics, economic e-commerce logistics and international business are expected to usher in new driving forces, The first growth curve is not finished, and the second and third growth curves are also gradually opening. It is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term allocation value of the company and maintain the bottom layout patiently. (2) Airport sector: under the suppression of the epidemic, the industry suffered losses or exceeded expectations in the first quarter, the supply tightening is still continuing, and the height and duration of the future boom will exceed expectations. The bottom of sentiment and fundamentals is about to pass. At present, it is still a good opportunity to build positions. (3) Shipping sector: in the short term, the demand for centralized transportation is still strong, and the freight rate is under phased pressure under the background of China’s epidemic. After the overseas epidemic was effectively controlled in the later stage, the supply chain gradually returned to normal, and the current extremely high freight rate level may be difficult to maintain. With the gradual relief of the epidemic in China, there is room for repair and replenishment of freight rates in the centralized transportation market. It is suggested to pay attention to foreign trade centralized transportation Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Asian regional centralized transportation Haifeng International. The oil transportation sector is affected by the sharp reduction of production in major oil producing countries and the epidemic situation. At present, the oil transportation market is in a downturn. However, the supply side of the oil transportation industry has large room for optimization, new ship orders are at a historical low, and there are many old ships that can be disassembled. It is expected that the supply growth rate will slow down significantly in the next few years. With the continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global crude oil export pattern is expected to change, lengthen the industry transportation distance, and the tanker market is expected to improve the company’s performance again. It is suggested to pay attention to the oil transportation company Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) . (4) Highway and railway sector: the debt like assets have opened the upward channel, the robustness of highways is prominent, and it is recommended to pay attention to China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Guangdong Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) .
(5) supply chain sector: pay attention to cross-border e-commerce, logistics and other relevant supply chain leaders, and pay attention to Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) , Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) .
Express data tracking. 1) Data of express industry in March: the business volume of express industry in March was 8.54 billion pieces, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% (year-on-year + 10.5% from January to March 2022); In March, the average price of a single ticket was 9.58 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% and a month on month increase of 0.8%; The revenue in March was 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. 2) Data of express companies in March: SF: 803 million pieces (year-on-year – 7.91%), 2.430 billion pieces (year-on-year – 1.5%) from January to March, with a unit price of 15.52 yuan (year-on-year + 2.24%, an increase of 0.08 yuan month on month). The business volume of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in March was 1.582 billion, 1.417 billion and 987 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.4%, + 5.1% and + 8.8% respectively, and their shares were 18.5%, 16.6% and 11.6% respectively. The single ticket income was 2.59, 2.48 and 2.56 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.3%, + 10.1% and + 13.8% respectively, and a month on month increase of + 0.25, – 0.18 and – 0.03 yuan respectively.
Shipping high frequency data tracking. This week, the BDI index was 2239 points, up 4.8% month on month; This week, the CCFI index fell 0.6% month on month, and the SCFI index fell 0.8% month on month; The freight rate is USD 798779cc / day this week.
Aviation data tracking. With the improvement of epidemic prevention in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the aviation data picked up slightly this week. 1) Last week (202204.15202204.21), the number of flights was 19419, 11.67% higher than last week and 79% lower than the same period in 19 years. 2) This week, the idle rate of transport capacity of major listed companies (excluding HNA and Max models) was 36.5%, down 8.81% from last week.
Recent key reports. Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) : two wheel drive, steady and far-reaching travel, Haifeng International: integrated shipping and logistics service provider focusing on the Asian region, the waterway transportation leader of dangerous chemicals opens the road of expansion, and the e-commerce express leader contains multiple expected differences – the quantity of pieces has multiple supports, the price is promising, the off-season is not light, and the overall cost has room for improvement Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : the operating data from January to February exceeded expectations, the single ticket was supported and the price was resilient, and the profit forecast continued to be raised, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the single volume growth was supported, the terminal price was resilient, and the profit forecast for 20222023 was raised, comments on civil aviation data in January: the traffic volume increased rapidly, and the demand is expected to recover rapidly, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) : the operating performance was gradually repaired, and the elasticity of price increase gradually appeared
Risk tip: the exchange rate and oil price fluctuate sharply, the demand recovery after an impact is lower than expected, the uncertain impact of the epidemic on volume, price and cost, and the deterioration of the global economic and trade situation.
