Key changes in the industry this week (04180422): ① Wang Yiming of the central bank: we should take stronger macro policy measures and strive to return the economic growth rate to more than 5% in the second quarter. ② Data from the Bureau of Statistics: in March, the newly started area of houses was – 22.2%, the sales was – 17.7% and the completion was – 15.5% year-on-year; In March, the cement output in a single month was – 5.6% year-on-year, and the flat glass was + 2%. ③ The price of coatings has been raised again (Dulux, PPG, Kansai). ④ Real estate continues to relax due to urban policies: Suzhou will increase the loan amount of provident fund for the first time, Hangzhou Fuyang may relax purchase restrictions and implement differentiated house purchase policies. ⑤ Annual report & first quarterly report: Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , Shandong Linuo Technical Glass Co.Ltd(301188) issue 2021 annual report Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Shandong Linuo Technical Glass Co.Ltd(301188) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) ; Revised performance forecast: Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) up and D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) down.
Core view: capital construction chain and real estate chain are stable growth
(1) the goal of steady growth is firm. It is expected that after the completion of epidemic prevention, the infrastructure chain will work hard, and the correlation between cement, construction, waterproof and pipeline sectors is higher. The epidemic occupies the control energy of local governments. It is optimistic that the plan at the beginning of the year will be implemented and the scale will be restored after the epidemic. ① Cement is used at the starting end of the real estate chain / infrastructure chain. It is expected that there will be an inflection point in the fundamentals in May. In the short term, although the total demand is sluggish and disturbed by the epidemic, the inventory has decreased steadily this week, mainly due to the increase of peak staggering in many places. The cement storage capacity decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 66.4% month on month, and the peak shifting was implemented simultaneously. For example, the peak shifting of Shanxi Province was 15 days on April 16, the peak shifting of eastern and western Guangdong was 10 days and the production was reduced by 30%, the peak shifting inventory of Yunnan benefited was reduced to medium, the planned peak shifting of Q2 was increased by 10 days, the peak shifting of Guizhou was reduced by 50% in April, and the peak shifting of Guangxi and Hunan Changzhutan was implemented successively. The peak shifting of Henan Province was 5-10 days from April 16, and 80% of the production lines have been shut down. Key target recommendations [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ]. ② In the construction sector, it is suggested to pay attention to performance fulfillment, which can be cut in from the perspective of key regions. The key targets are [ Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) ] [ Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ] [ Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ] [ Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ]. ③ Waterproof belongs to the category of strong start-up end, and the accelerated improvement of the industry pattern is ignored, suggesting that the leading income is expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to focus on [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ].
(2) pay attention to the “dilemma reversal” of the real estate chain, more cities join the “city for city” relaxation, and the start-up end + growth target will take the lead in benefiting: ① the consumption of building materials and cement will focus on the marginal change of performance, the superposition and release of demand from March to April after the epidemic, and the improvement of fundamentals is expected to accelerate; ② Cost side pressure has been fully recognized, and price increases have been hedged in waterproof, coating, cement and other industries; ③ In 2021, the growth rate of real estate sales, commencement and construction is high before and low after, and the Q1 base is high. The dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest to pay attention to: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. Double tap combination is a key recommendation, with the core leading [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ].
(3) the poor expectation of glass fiber is accumulating strength, and attention is paid to the reshaping of the relationship between supply and demand. We focus on three aspects: first, the performance of glass fiber is leading the building materials sector, and the volume and price of glass fiber business of [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) ] [ Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ] have increased year-on-year, benefiting overseas; Second, the downstream boom is intertwined upward, and the fields of automobile lightweight and wind power continue to speed up; Third, rising costs restrain supply, including energy and material costs and dual carbon approval costs.
(4) the new price of photovoltaic glass in April is mainly driven by cost (natural gas + freight).
Risk warning: the risk of epidemic persistence; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
