This week’s view
Steel industry: the epidemic affects the rhythm, and the total amount is still predictable
Steel prices fluctuated. As of April 22, thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod reported 5150 yuan / ton, 5199 yuan / ton, 5265 yuan / ton, 5656 yuan / ton and 5500 yuan / ton respectively this week, with a slight increase of 0.36%, – 0.81%, – 0.19%, 0.09%, 1.04% and 0.50% respectively on a weekly basis.
This week, social inventory fell to 161853 million tons, down 308000 tons. The inventory of major steel mills increased to 6.844 million tons, with a decrease of 8000 tons on a weekly basis.
The gross profit per ton of steel has narrowed. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod was 151 yuan, 121 yuan, – 56 yuan, 32 yuan and 375 yuan respectively, down 43 yuan, 93 yuan, 63 yuan, 68 yuan and 37 yuan compared with last week.
In the short term, the release of downstream demand is still the main factor affecting the profitability of the industry. In the medium and long term, the crude steel output continues to decrease year-on-year, and the rigidity of the supply side is obvious. Once the marginal of the demand side is improved, the supply-demand relationship will be significantly improved.
As the main focus of stabilizing the economy, in the field of infrastructure construction, water conservancy and municipal pipe network have been clearly reflected at the policy level. It is expected that with the end of the two sessions and the centralized bid opening and construction in various places, the pipeline demand is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
For high-grade non oriented silicon steel, the government work report said that it would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the demand for non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The supply side release is limited, and the profit of high-end silicon steel is expected to continue to break out this year. Attach importance to enterprises with high grade non oriented silicon steel production capacity. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
Focus on the subject
Industrial sector companies: Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) 9 , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) .
Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) .
Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Nonferrous Metals Industry: superimposed on the repeated covid-19 epidemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the market is pessimistic about the downstream demand, the short-term spot price surged and fell, the supply release is limited in the medium and long term, the price is expected to remain stable at a high level, and it is optimistic about the recovery of marginal demand brought by the resumption of production and work. The valuation of the sector is to repair the lithium sector. The quotation of spodumene this week is US $3340 / ton, up 13.61% from last week; Lithium hydroxide quoted 471500 yuan / ton, down 3.97% from last week; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 467000 yuan / ton, down 5.47%. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 840000 yuan / ton, 2.59 million yuan / ton and 14.1 million yuan / ton this week, up 6.29%, 5.71% and 10.42% respectively.
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future, we are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency, energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era.
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices rose 0.05% this week to close at 75010 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price fell 0.32% to close at 21920 yuan / ton. This week, the yield of 10-year US bonds broke through 2.9%, the market interest rate hike is expected to continue to heat up, and the yield of short-term US bonds also rose significantly. Although the Fed is in the interest rate hike cycle, it has little impact on the real economy in the early stage of interest rate hike. We believe that the medium-term copper price still has action power.
In terms of copper, the output of many copper mine producers fell in the first quarter, and the Las bambas copper mine of Minmetals resources was again protested by the community this week. The reduction of ore grade and the strike in Peru continued to affect the supply of copper mine; According to Mysteel research, smelting enterprises extended the maintenance time due to the impact of the epidemic, and the output of refined copper further contracted slightly. This week, the copper inventory in the previous period decreased by 18800 tons, and the inventory was greatly reduced. At present, the global inventory is still at a historically low position, and the Chinese epidemic will eventually pass, and some of the missing demand will be transferred to the future. Therefore, we believe that the demand will improve significantly after the end of the epidemic in the second quarter. Although the Fed is in the interest rate hike cycle, it has little impact on the real economy in the early stage of interest rate hike. We believe that the medium-term copper price still has action power.
In terms of aluminum, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, at present, China’s operating capacity is 40.66 million tons, with an operating rate of 87.72%, an increase of 170000 tons over last week, an increase of 0.42% month on month; 3.19 million tons have been put into production since the beginning of the year, with a production capacity of 2.89 million tons to be resumed. The spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 1021000 tons, a decrease of 42000 tons compared with last week. Logistics in the Yangtze River Delta is gradually recovering this week. The shortage of raw materials and transportation constraints may be alleviated. The recovery of downstream consumption is just around the corner, and the worst time point of annual supply and demand is about to pass. With the steady growth policy and the lifting of relevant restrictions, the recovery of downstream consumption is expected to be clear, and the second quarter may usher in an inflection point.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 92 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) 6 Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) 01 Founder Technology Group Co.Ltd(600601) 899 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
