This week’s view:
The pharmaceutical sector has a high cost performance ratio. It is suggested to grasp the expectation of oversold rebound and epidemic repair. This week, the CSI 300 fell by 4.19%, the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 7.34%, ranking 28th among 31 primary sub industries, and all sub sectors fell. Affected by factors such as the overall market and the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, the pharmaceutical sector continued to fluctuate and adjust, and the industry valuation has entered the historical bottom range. We believe that the long-term logic is clear, the performance of the high degree of fulfillment of the segment track and blue chip stocks will be a safe haven in the current market environment. At the current time point, it is suggested to actively grasp the sub industries and companies whose fundamentals are still strong in the adjustment, such as cro/cdmo, vaccines, characteristic APIs, etc., and gradually pay attention to the sectors where Q2 may meet the expectation of epidemic repair and the fundamentals will be gradually improved, such as medical services, life sciences upstream, etc.
The list of thousand County projects is released. It is suggested to pay attention to the new round of investment opportunities in medical equipment procurement brought by the sinking of medical resources. On April 20, the national medical insurance bureau released the list of county hospitals for the comprehensive capacity improvement of county hospitals in the “thousand county project”, which included 1233 county hospitals, covering about 43% of the county-level administrative regions in China. Based on 2020, it is expected that the number of new tertiary hospitals will account for 41%. The current round of construction plan will focus on the construction of service centers for cancer prevention and treatment, chronic disease management, minimally invasive intervention, anesthesia and pain diagnosis and treatment, intensive care and so on, and clearly put forward the need to improve the conditions of hardware facilities and equipment and improve the allocation and use efficiency of medical resources in the county; Previously, the national development and Reform Commission allocated about 68.6 billion yuan for 1597 county-level hospital upgrading projects. This round of thousand county project construction is expected to bring a large number of engineering infrastructure and equipment purchase needs. Many departments such as anesthesia, infection, critical illness, tumor and pathology may benefit particularly. Domestic head brands are expected to take the lead in seizing business opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading targets, such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Lianying medical, etc.
Covid-19 epidemic situation has repeatedly strengthened needle vaccination, and is optimistic about the restorative volume of conventional varieties in 22 years. 1) Covid-19 vaccine:
The challenge of covid-19 mutant strain and the length of vaccine protection still exists. Since March, repeated outbreaks have occurred in many regions of China. In early April, there has been a lot of clinical progress in covid-19 mRNA vaccine and second-generation recombinant protein vaccine. The focus of covid-19 vaccine has gradually shifted from production capacity to effectiveness. It is suggested to focus on enterprises with sufficient covid-19 vaccine production capacity, reserve a variety of technical routes and leading R & D progress, Such as Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , etc. 2) Conventional varieties: the impact of covid-19 vaccination disturbance will weaken in 2022, and large varieties such as diploid crazy vaccine and influenza vaccine are expected to recover in 22 years. We are optimistic about the sustained and rapid release of HPV vaccine. In the next two years, domestic innovative vaccines will enter the centralized approval and large-scale period. Many heavy varieties such as tetravalent influenza, diploid crazy vaccine, 2-valent HPV and 13 valent pneumonia will usher in new domestic players, and the industry will enter the fast lane of development. .
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One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 22.4%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 18.8%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is 3.7% lower than that of CSI 300. This week, the CSI 300 fell by 4.19%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 7.34%, ranking 28th among the 31 primary sub industries. All sub sectors fell, including biological products, with the largest decline of – 8.83%, and medical services, with the smallest decline of – 5.59%. Based on the 2022 profit forecast valuation, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 24.61 times PE, the P / E ratio of all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is about 22.92 times PE, and the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 7.35%. Calculated by TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 25.5 times PE, which is lower than the historical average (37 times PE), and the premium rate relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 38%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
