One week market review: 1) GDP in the first quarter of this year was 270178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; 2) At its meeting on April 22, the people’s Bank of China proposed to implement a sound monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity; 3) The CBRC and the Ministry of transport jointly issued opinions to encourage insurance institutions to participate in the construction of major highway transportation infrastructure, new transportation infrastructure and other projects through creditor’s rights, equity and other forms; 4) Guangdong Provincial Department of housing and urban rural development proposed that Guangdong should complete the energy-saving and green transformation of existing buildings by 2025, covering an area of more than 30 million square meters.
This week’s view: Q1 infrastructure has achieved double-digit growth and continues to be optimistic about the steady growth of infrastructure. This week, the Bureau of statistics released the economic data of the first quarter. The growth rate of fixed investment fell slightly compared with that from January to February, but remained high. Investment continues to play an important role in stabilizing growth. From January to March, the completed amount of national fixed asset investment reached 10.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.3%, and the growth rate decreased by 2.9pct compared with the previous month, including manufacturing investment + 15.6%, the growth rate decreased by 5.3pct compared with the previous month, real estate investment + 0.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.0pct compared with the previous month. The broad infrastructure investment accelerated against the trend, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 10.5%, and the growth rate increased by 1.9pct compared with the previous month, of which the growth rate in March alone reached 11.8%.
Further split the infrastructure investment, in which the cumulative completed investment in transportation, warehousing and postal services was + 9.6%, the cumulative investment in water conservancy and environmental public services was + 8.0%, and the cumulative investment in electric gas and water was + 19.3% year-on-year. The growth rate was significantly higher than -0.9pct, + 2.0pct, + 7.6pct from January to February respectively. In terms of real estate, the sales data and commencement and completion data continued to be sluggish. From January to March, the cumulative growth rates of real estate sales amount and sales area were – 22.7% and – 13.8% respectively, and the cumulative growth rates of new construction area and completed area were – 17.5% and – 11.5% respectively year-on-year, and the decline was larger than that of the previous month. We believe that the infrastructure data in the first quarter performed well, which is consistent with our previous grass-roots research and macro and micro data tracking performance, that is, under economic pressure, the infrastructure force is obviously ahead, so as to play an important stabilizing role. There has been a certain callback in the infrastructure sector in the near term. We think it may be the impact of the macro environment. From the published Q1 orders, we think it may be the impact of the macro environment. From the published Q1 orders ( China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Railway Group Limited(601390) \ \theacceleration of infrastructure construction may play a greater role, Continue to be optimistic about the steady growth of infrastructure.
Infrastructure data tracking: 1) special bonds: the issuance of special bonds this week was 10.150 billion yuan. As of April 23, 2022, the cumulative issuance was 1327468 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 136834%. 2) Urban investment bonds: this week, the issuance of urban investment bonds was 156549 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 59.838 billion yuan. So far, the cumulative net financing amount is 702968 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 0.17%. 3) There was no major reply from the national development and Reform Commission this week. As of April 16, 2022, the total investment of approved projects in 2022 was 362676 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 61.60%, including 238262 billion yuan for railways, 87.650 billion yuan for subways, 100 million yuan for airports, 100 million yuan for oceans and ports and 36.764 billion yuan for others.
Investment recommendations: a key recommendation for the investment recommendations: a key recommendation for the most of the most of the most of the ‘60039 , it is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) , Anhui Fuhuang Steel Structure Co.Ltd(002743) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) .
Market review:
1) industry: this week, the market fell by 3.87%, the gem fell by 6.38%, and the construction industry fell by 6.36%, which showed poor performance in the whole market.
2) individual stocks: Six stocks rose this week. The top five companies were Beijing Qianjing Landscape Co.Ltd(603778) (16.19%), Misho Ecology & Landscape Co.Ltd(300495) (7.59%), China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Corporation Limited(601611) (4.32%), Hongrun Construction Group Co.Ltd(002062) (3.21%), Jsti Group(300284) (1.87%); The companies with the top five declines were Shenzhen Strongteam Decoration Engineering Co.Ltd(002989) ST roton (- 22.66%), Ningbo Construction Co.Ltd(601789) (- 18.51%), Hangzhou Landscape Architecture Design Institute Co.Ltd(300649) (- 17.21%), Haibo Heavy Engineering Science And Technology Co.Ltd(300517) (- 17.14%), Daqian Ecology & Environment Group Co.Ltd(603955) (- 16.6%). From a monthly Perspective (20220401 to 20220423), a total of 15 stocks rose, and a total of 30 stocks have risen since the beginning of the year.
3) capital tracking: from the macro situation, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB this week was 6.4875 and the closing price last week was 6.3712 The yield to maturity of the 10-year Treasury note was 2.8409%, up 8.31bp from last week One month Shibor was 2.2130%, down 4.00bp from last week.
4) others: a total of 6 companies had block transactions this week, and 4 shareholders reduced their holdings.
Risk tip: the growth rate of infrastructure investment does not meet expectations, and the degree of policy promotion is lower than expected.
