The demand for thermal coal is in the "darkest hour" and is expected to rebound in the future. According to wind data, the price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao this week rose first and then declined. As of April 22, it closed at 1173 yuan / ton, up 38 yuan / ton on a weekly basis.
At present, the consumption of power coal has entered the off-season. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, the downstream power load is not high, and some generator units are overhauled, so the short-term demand is weak. At present, the demand side is the most off-season of the year. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the demand has faced a "dark moment". After increasing production and ensuring supply in the fourth quarter of 2021, the output basically reached the limit in the fourth quarter of 2021. Due to the limited new capacity, there is little potential to continue to increase production. At the same time, the import volume continues to decline, and the total supply is expected to decline month on month. In the later stage, with the effective control of the epidemic, the demand suppressed by the epidemic is expected to be released, and the subsequent price is expected to rise.
Coking coal prices are expected to run strongly. According to the data of coal resources network, as of April 22, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, the cross provincial transportation of coking coal in Shanxi, the main producing area, is still hindered, and the fire transportation and shipment are tight, resulting in the accumulation of coking coal storage in some coal mines. However, the Shanxi provincial emergency management department decided to carry out a two-month safety production inspection from April to the end of May. The local coal mine output may be expected to decline, and the coal mine in Xiangning area may be shut down due to an accident, so the coking coal supply is expected to be tightened. In the downstream, affected by the epidemic, the road transportation is not smooth, and the arrival of some coke steel enterprises is less than expected. After the recovery of transportation in the later stage, the demand of coke steel enterprises for raw coal may be further increased. On the whole, the coking coal price is expected to be stable and strong in the short term.
Coke price is expected to be strong. According to the coal resources network, the epidemic situation in Shanxi has been controlled in a certain way this week, the transportation in the province has been restored, and the operating rate of coking enterprises in the province has rebounded. In terms of inter provincial transportation, although the issuance of passes has improved, the impact of the epidemic has not been eliminated, and some line transportation is still limited. Limited transportation leads to poor arrival of steel mills, slow increase of storage and strong procurement enthusiasm. Overall, the coke price is expected to be strong.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to face value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by real estate and infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Risk of policy change.
