Introduction to this report:
The market fell continuously for five trading days this week. The main indexes showed a general decline pattern, and the small and medium-sized indexes fell relatively greatly.
After this round of adjustment, the Shanghai composite index is close to the early low point and challenges the lower edge of the shock range again. Considering that the current round of adjustment has been large, the current valuation level of major indexes is relatively low, and the possibility of further sharp decline is expected to be low. The market is expected to enter the shock bottom stage next week.
Summary:
Market overview of this week (202204-18 to 202204-22): (1) main indexes: the market generally fell, and the small and medium-sized index fell relatively greatly. Among them, the decline of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 is relatively small; The growth enterprise market index, China Securities 1000, China Securities 500 and Shenzhen composite index fell relatively greatly. (2) Plate observation: this week, the industry sector generally fell, and the cyclical industry fell significantly. Among them, building materials, coal, non-ferrous metals, steel, real estate and other sectors fell by more than 7%; Medicine, power equipment and new energy fell by more than 6%; Digital currency, vaccines, chemical raw materials, iron ore and other sectors fell by more than 10%. (3) Market sentiment: market sentiment is low, and IC contracts are heavily discounted. The market fell sharply this week, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell to 800 billion. As of Friday, the premiums of if, IH and IC main contracts were – 0.04%, 0.04% and – 0.95% respectively. (4) Capital flow: the balance of the two financial institutions decreased slightly. The latest balance data (Thursday, April 22) was 1.61 trillion yuan, and the proportion of financing purchase was 5.69%. The net inflow of funds from the north this week was 400 million yuan; The inflow of power equipment and new energy, basic chemical industry, electric power and public utilities ranks first; Banks, automobiles, computers and other sectors led the outflow. (5) Quantitative “black technology”: the dynamic valuation brin belt model shows that the valuations of major market indexes fall to the bottom area, and the valuations of CSI 1000 and CSI 500 trigger extreme bottom signals.
The reasons for this week’s market: (1) the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused continuous concerns, and the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for this year and next. (2) The situation of epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai is grim, and enterprises are promoted to resume work and production in batches. (3) The interest rate cut is expected to be flat in April. (4) The RMB exchange rate fell continuously in the short term.
Market outlook for next week: the market fell continuously in five trading days this week, the main indexes showed a general decline pattern, and the small and medium-sized indexes fell relatively greatly. After this round of adjustment, the Shanghai composite index is close to the early low point and challenges the lower edge of the shock range again. Considering that the current round of adjustment has been large, the current valuation level of major indexes is relatively low, and the possibility of further sharp decline is expected to be low. The market is expected to enter the shock bottom stage next week.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations; Macro policies tend to be loose and less than expected; Increased volatility in overseas markets; The quantitative model is constructed based on historical data, and the historical law has the risk of failure.
