Introduction to this report:
This week, the equity market fell significantly, and only gold in the major categories of assets performed more soundly. In the equity sector, except textile and clothing, utilities and beauty care, other sectors fell sharply. From the perspective of relative attractiveness, the future of the equity market can be expected: in specific sectors, we are optimistic about real estate, construction materials, power equipment and coal, while textile and clothing should pay attention to the callback risk.
Summary:
This week (from April 18, 2022-0 to April 22, 2022), the equity market fell significantly, and only gold among the major categories of assets performed more soundly. Major indexes in the equity market showed a sharp decline; Among non equity assets, gold performed relatively steadily, but the commodity index suffered a large decline, the national debt fell sharply, and the overall market risk appetite showed a downward trend. From the quantile level of the current rate of return, all stock indexes are significantly lower than the third quartile and are located in the neighborhood of the 95% quantile: Shanghai stock index and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 are slightly higher than the 95% quantile; The Shenzhen Composite Index and CSI 300 are near the 95% quantile; The venture edition index, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell below the 95% quantile, and the market interpretation is more extreme; Gold performed steadily, slightly higher than the historical average; The decline of commodities is deep, and it goes down through the third quartile level; China national debt is in the third quartile level, while China national debt credit debt is slightly lower than the historical average level.
From this week’s equity market shenwanyi industry sector, except textile and clothing, public utilities and beauty care, other sectors showed a sharp decline. From the current quantile of return, thanks to the concept of low exchange rate and favorable export, the textile and garment industry rose against the market, with an increase of more than 5% quantile; The ten industries represented by real estate, steel and nonferrous metals wear the 95% quantile, and the market shows extreme differentiation.
Judging from the relative attractiveness index of two assets designed in this series of weekly reports: in the equity index, the Shanghai stock index is significantly stronger than each growth sector; The Z-value index between non equity assets is relatively normal and the difference is small. As the market is in the differentiation state of “equity non equity”, the equity market is obviously weak compared with other assets, and the future market is expected to turn around. From the industry sector, the current real estate, building materials, power equipment and coal are relatively attractive, and textile and clothing should pay attention to the callback risk.
Risk tip: the quantitative model is constructed based on historical data, and the historical law has the risk of failure.
