The financial characteristics of the food industry: Baijiu in the food industry accounted for nearly 70% of the market value, Baijiu liquor can be a certain degree of characteristics of the food industry: 1) the proportion of debt payable in advance is higher, and the upstream and downstream bargaining power is strong, ROE is higher, which is the long track of A shares. 2) The fluctuation level of revenue growth is low, which is suitable for allocation in the economic downturn environment and has defensive characteristics; 3) The cash flow is healthy and has comparative advantages in the environment of deteriorating credit; 4) before 2017, the growth rate of revenue was positively related to Baijiu relative to the 800 excess return of CSI, and the performance led the excess. However, after 2017, the correlation weakened, and the driving logic changed to valuations and preferences. 5) The growth rate of advance receipts and operating cash flow / operating income are the leading indicators of revenue growth.
Industrial chain comparison: Baijiu, dairy products, condiments, beer, there are subtle differences in logic: 1) customer stickiness. The higher the viscosity, the greater the space for commodity price increase and the higher the potential net interest rate. Among them, the Baijiu with social attributes is the most viscous. 2) Sales radius. The smaller the sales radius, the easier the regionalization of goods and the difficulty in forming concentration. Among them, beer and low-temperature milk need to consider freshness and cold chain technology. The concentration is low, and there are no oligarchs at the track; 3) Growth. The logic of the rise in food price volume has reversed, and beer sales and Baijiu sales have reached the top. Some industrial chains have entered the stock environment. Logically, the scale of growth track is expanded and the concentration is low, and the market pays more attention to channel expansion (volume). Mature track, increased mergers and acquisitions, and the speculation logic pays more attention to consumption upgrading (price); 4) ROE is ranked from high to low, Baijiu condiments dairy products beer. Baijiu wins higher net interest rate in selling. Whether continuous price increase is the key is that dairy products and condiments are relatively high turnover, and channels and sales volume are the core.
Changes in valuation system: 1) combined with the characteristics of steady cash flow and high growth, food is suitable for DCF and PEG valuation models; 2) After the launch of land stock connect, the pricing power of foreign capital increased. Especially in the downward environment of US bond interest rate, the negative correlation between US bond and food excess return increases; 3) In the upward environment of US bond interest rate, the pricing power of foreign capital is weakened. At this time, domestic capital needs to give consideration to growth and cost performance, and the valuation system turns to peg Data show that Baijiu PEG in 2020 is negatively related to the annual decline in 2021.
Industry drivers: 1) 10-year US debt, negatively correlated with food excess: 2) CPI, food has anti inflation attribute; 3) Before 2015, the food has defensive characteristics, and the CSI 800 has negative excess under the rapid rise environment; 4) Consumption environment, consumer confidence index and rolling December residents’ short-term financing have a good degree of food over matching; 5) Price increase is a major game point of food. Historically, price increase has been concentrated in the period of high PPI.
Timing of food industry: due to the lack of channel data, this paper selects the timing of capital signals. Historically, the rise of US bond interest rate superimposed the net outflow stage of land stock connect, and CSI food is often weak and downward. If you avoid this stage, you can get a good excess.
