A week’s market review: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, transportation outperformed the market, down 2.6%, and the public transportation and railway transportation in the sub sectors rose 0.1% and fell 0.1% respectively. From April 18, 2022 to April 22, 2022, the transportation index (- 2.6%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (- 3.9%) in the same period. Among the absolute weekly increases and decreases of sub sectors, public transportation (+ 0.1%), railway transportation (- 0.1%), shipping (- 1.1%), expressway (- 2.8%), air transportation (- 2.8%), express (- 2.9%), port (- 3.8%), warehousing logistics (- 5.8%), road freight (- 6.4%) and cross-border logistics (- 7.4%).
Special topic of highway transportation in major provinces and cities affected by the epidemic: one week.
Shipping data observation: crude oil prices fell 4.5% month on month. On Friday (2022.4.22), the SCFI index closed at 4196 points, down – 0.8% month on month; BDI closed at 2307, up + 8.0% month on month; BDTI closed at 1465 points, with – 14.5% mom, while bcti closed at 1076 points, with 0.0% mom.
Recent hot spots: ports: in mid April, the container throughput of the eight hub ports decreased by 5.7% year-on-year. On April 22, the national cargo transportation was generally orderly and the freight logistics recovered smoothly.
Investment strategy:
Aviation: we are still optimistic about the optimistic prospect of the industry after the epidemic. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Northeast China and other places, the recovery of China’s passenger transport market demand will be suppressed in the short term; Superimposed on the rise in oil prices, we believe that the industry still faces certain operating pressure in the short term. In the medium term, we expect that China’s travel consumption demand is expected to increase in late Q2, the industry demand will improve quarter by quarter, and the seating rate and price are expected to continue to repair. In the long run, the demand after the epidemic is expected to continue to grow, and the cumulative benefits of tightening industry supply and liberalizing ticket prices are expected to be released, which will promote the continuous improvement of the performance of airlines. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the aviation sector.
Airport: wait for the recovery of the international line and be optimistic about the long-term traffic commercial value of the hub airport.
Express delivery: Recently, there have been frequent outbreaks in many places across the country, and the growth rate of industry business volume fell in March. It is expected that most of the express delivery demand may be delayed; We believe that after the epidemic, Tongda express, mainly e-commerce parts, will benefit from the slowdown of the industry price war in the medium and short term, and the stable unit price level is expected to continue to Q2. It is expected to achieve better profit performance in the whole year of 22 years, but it will still take a long time to clear in the long term. In the long term, we judge that the scale effect and the investment in automation equipment will promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of express companies, and the industry will gradually shift from price driven to value driven. The express sector as a whole still has room for growth. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of e-commerce and business parts.
Shipping: the quotation of container freight forwarders has remained stable or rebounded slightly, and the quotation of shipping companies is stable. We believe that in 2022, the relationship between supply and demand is still tense, the cost side transmission is relatively smooth, and the freight rate is still expected to rise throughout the year; The freight rate in the peak season of oil transportation may be expected, and the inflection point of the large cycle still needs to be waited. We believe that the supply and demand pattern will improve in 2022, and there is a great certainty that the freight rate will rise; Dry bulk is optimistic about the medium-term upward cycle; Pay attention to the shipbuilding industry chain.
Investment suggestion: recommend Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Air China Limited(601111) , and pay attention to S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk tip: fluctuations in exchange rate and oil price, loss of key customers, contract signing and demand growth did not meet expectations, and the economy fell sharply
