Market review: the performance of major indexes fell this week, with the CSI 300 down 4.19%, the Shanghai composite index down 3.87% and the gem index down 6.66%. The average daily turnover of A-Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 797746 billion yuan, down 12.06% month on month, and the balance of two financial institutions was 1613943 billion yuan, down 1.01% month on month.
Securities: the brokerage index fell 5.21% this week, underperforming the market by 1.02pct Performance of key targets: Guojun – 3.79%, Huatai – 4.43%, CITIC – 4.79%, Dongcai – 6.70%, GF – 7.55%, CICC – 7.81%, Guolian – 11.81% and Dongzheng – 15.26%. (1) Since the beginning of the year, the market scene has declined and the IPO has broken. In the short term, the net fee income of investment banking business of securities companies is not affected, but the heavy capital business is obviously affected. 1. In terms of follow-up investment of science and Innovation Board:
Assuming that the securities companies sell after the two-year ban lifting period, we calculate that by the end of the first quarter, the total floating profit of listed securities companies with investment has narrowed from 21.5 billion yuan to 14.8 billion yuan, corresponding to a loss of 6.7 billion yuan from changes in fair value (the loss scale is 16.8% of the net profit of 21q1 listed securities companies). In addition, since the beginning of the year, the fair value loss brought by the follow-up investment of listed securities firm Kechuang board has reached 8.3 billion yuan. The top ten securities companies in net profit were relatively less affected, and the profit shrinkage caused by the narrowing of total floating profit was 3.99 billion yuan (accounting for 13.5% of the net profit of 21q1 on average). 2. At present, the IPO break has little impact on the balance underwriting of the securities industry. Assuming that the balance of underwriting projects of securities companies this year has been held so far, the floating loss of shares held by the securities industry due to the breaking of IPO and the abandonment of new shares was 170 million yuan, while the floating profit of 13 million yuan was generated as of the first quarter. Although the abandonment of new shares has a certain pressure on the capital utilization of securities companies, it has little impact on the industry as a whole. Although the follow-up investment business of Kechuang board had a significant impact on the performance of securities business in the first quarter, most follow-up investment projects are still dominated by floating profits. The obvious impact of proprietary losses is mainly due to the small net profit base in a single quarter and the sharp decline in the market. The fair value loss caused by the fluctuation of market prosperity may become the future performance increment when the market rebounds. We expect that the impact of this round of IPO on the business of securities companies may prompt securities companies to accelerate the pace of improving their pricing ability, which will have a positive impact on the industry ecology in the long run. (2) This week, the law on futures and derivatives was passed, mainly including “termination of net settlement”, central counterparty, etc. From the perspective of investment, we estimate that at the end of 2021, the scale of neutral proprietary trading dominated by derivatives in the securities industry exceeded 36%. The prospect of financial derivatives market has become the key to the further development of head securities companies. At present, due to the imperfect legal framework, imperfect financial basic market and insufficient ability of market participants, the financial derivatives business is subject to regulatory restrictions. The introduction of futures and derivatives legislation has a weak impact on the business of securities companies in the short term, but it is the key to the long-term business development. (3) This week, the general office of the State Council issued opinions on promoting the development of individual pensions. The impact on the business of securities companies may be mainly in the sales channel. It is clear that the third pillar consignment institutions include institutions with financial product sales qualifications. Referring to the United States, the wealth management business with the second and third pillars as the core has become the main source of income for most independent consignment institutions. In addition, independent sales agencies play an important role in promoting the participation of American residents in the third pillar.
We expect that in the short term, the third pillar entrusted sales institutions may still be dominated by banks, but in the long run, the independent consignment institutions represented by securities companies and Tiantian fund may gradually obtain business increment. In terms of investment, we recommend China stock market news, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , focusing on China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
Insurance: this week, the insurance index was -3.44%, outperforming the market by 0.75pt, and individual stocks fell generally, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) -3.81%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 3.05%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 1.60%, The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) 1.53%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) -1.00%; Hong Kong stocks China Taiping -1.35%, China Property Insurance -2.16%, AIA -2.37%. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds remains at about 2.8, with little overall fluctuation. (1) This week, Sunshine Insurance Group Co., Ltd. submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong stock exchange. The co sponsors are Huatai international, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , UBS group and CCB international.
According to the disclosure in the prospectus, the original insurance premium income of sunshine insurance increased from 4.153 billion yuan to 101371 billion yuan from 2007 to 2021, with an average annual compound growth rate of 26%; The asset scale increased from 11.146 billion yuan to 441623 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30%. By the end of 2021, the embedded value was 93.776 billion yuan, an increase of 15.5% over the end of 2020. From the perspective of business, in 2021, the personal insurance business premium of sunshine insurance accounted for 59.8% of the total premium, and the property insurance business accounted for 40.2%, which was relatively balanced. However, the proportion of life insurance business has continued to increase in recent three years, while the proportion of property insurance has continued to decline. It is noteworthy that from 2019 to 2021, the proportion of the total insured amount of agent channels in the total premium income of life insurance business continued to decline, accounting for 31.1%, 28.7% and 24.8% respectively; Among them, the total insurance income of the new policy also continued to decline, accounting for 31.1%, 26.5% and 22.1% respectively. The development of life insurance business is also affected by the pain of industry transformation and the superimposed epidemic situation. From the perspective of investment, the total return on investment of sunshine insurance from 2019 to 2021 was 5.8%, 6.5% and 5.4% respectively, and the net return on investment was 5.8%, 5.2% and 4.6% respectively, all declining; Among them, the net return on investment fell for three consecutive years, hitting a new low in the past three years. In the past five years, Chinese insurance companies have not added new listed entities. If nothing happens, sunshine insurance will become the 10th listed insurance company in China. However, at this stage, the investor sentiment and the valuation of the insurance sector in the Hong Kong market are at a low ebb. China’s insurance companies listed in Hong Kong are generally in a state of breaking the net value, and the performance of insurance companies in the capital market is generally poor. The fund-raising and valuation of sunshine insurance will finally refer to the market environment at that time. (2) The general office of the State Council issued opinions on promoting the development of individual pension, required to promote the construction of individual pension system suitable for China’s national conditions, and defined the key elements such as individual pension account system, competent unit, coverage and investment scope. According to the speech made by Liang Tao, vice chairman of the CBRC, at the 2022 annual meeting of Boao Forum for Asia on April 21, since May 2018, the CBRC has piloted the pilot of individual tax deferred commercial endowment insurance in Shanghai, Fujian and Suzhou, and achieved a premium income of 630 million yuan by the end of 2021; The pilot of exclusive commercial endowment insurance products promoted in 2021 mainly serves new citizens and new employment groups. By the end of 21, the premium scale had reached 630 million yuan; The pilot work of pension financial products launched in 2021 has been expanded to “ten places and ten institutions”. By the end of March 22, about 42 billion yuan had been raised, of which about 800 million yuan had been invested in the capital market, and the volume is still relatively small. This opinion fully integrates professional financial institutions such as banks, insurance, securities and public funds into the construction of personal pension system. Facing the competition of various financial formats, banks have natural advantages in opening accounts and rich network resources and customer reserves. The competitive advantage of public funds lies in their strong ability of active asset management and investment research, but the long-term asset management advantages accumulated in the insurance industry The comprehensive pension service ability and the risk prevention function of insurance products will be an important advantage different from other financial formats.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation and duration of covid-19 pneumonia exceeded expectations, the downward pressure on the economy increased, the pace of innovation and reform was lower than expected, and the interest rate fluctuated greatly.
