Key investment points
Thermal coal: China’s pit mouth price continued to decline, and the international coal price rose rapidly month on month. The comprehensive index of thermal coal: on April 22, the comprehensive index of thermal coal cci5500 was 792 yuan / ton, unchanged on the week; In April 2022, the long-term cooperative price of thermal coal (q5500) was 720 yuan / ton, unchanged from March.
Origin: on April 22, the tax inclusive price of q5500 pit mouth in Datong, Shanxi was 920 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton in the week Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) q5500 pithead price including tax is 787 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 24 yuan / ton; The price of q5800 thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi Province was 935 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton this week.
Import: in terms of international thermal coal, on April 15, the CIF price of Ara port in Europe was 311.3 US dollars / ton, up 38.8 US dollars / ton this week; The FOB price of Rb port in South Africa was US $313.1/t, up US $48.1/t this week; The FOB price of NEWC port in Australia was US $336.6/t, up US $39.2/t this week.
Inventory: Port inventory: on April 22, the coal inventory of northern port was 17.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.23 million tons compared with the same period last week. Terminal inventory: on April 21, the inventory of end users in eight coastal provinces was 29.321 million tons, an increase of 566000 tons over the same period last week; The available days are 18.6 days, an increase of 1.2 days over the same period last week; The coal supply was 1.734 million tons, an increase of 3000 tons over the same period last week.
Demand: on April 21, the daily consumption of end users in eight coastal provinces was 1.574 million tons, a decrease of 79000 tons compared with the same period last week.
China’s output: on April 17, the total weekly coal output of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia was 27.77 million tons, an increase of 20000 tons on a weekly basis; Among them, the weekly output of coal in Shanxi Province was 9.182 million tons, with a weekly ring ratio increase of 2000 tons; The weekly output of coal in Shaanxi Province was 6.794 million tons, with a decrease of 56000 tons on a weekly basis; The weekly output of coal in Inner Mongolia is 11.79 million tons, with a decrease of 70000 tons.
On April 21, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) city produced 2.6896 million tons per day, an increase of 33000 tons over the same period last week.
Coking coal: prices continue to rise. Average price of coking coal: on April 18, the comprehensive average price of main coking coal was 3161.3 yuan / ton, up 76.5 yuan / ton this week. Among them, the average price of production place was 2988.8 yuan / ton, up 118.1 yuan / ton in the week; The average price of transit land is 3280.0 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 50.0 yuan / ton; The average price of consumer land was 3369.8 yuan / ton, up 25.0 yuan / ton this week.
Imported Coking Coal: in terms of China’s imported coking coal, Fengjing hard coking coal closed at US $522 / ton on April 22, up US $12 / ton this week. Coke: on April 21, the coke price index was 3737 yuan / ton, up 168 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week; Coke cost index was 3656 yuan / ton, up 36 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week; Coke price and cost index are upside down by 81 yuan / ton, a decrease of 129 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week.
Downstream changes: the inventory of coking coal in the steel plant decreased rapidly, and the inventory of rebar was basically flat. Coking coal: on April 22, the coking coal warehouse of China’s sample steel plant stored 8.21 million tons, a decrease of 348000 tons compared with the same period last week; The coking coal warehouse of China’s independent coking plant stored 10.68 million tons, an increase of 187000 tons over the same period last week. Downstream steel mills: on April 22, the inventory of rebar in major cities in China was 9.25 million tons, a decrease of 171000 tons compared with the same period last week; The tax inclusive price of 20mm rebar in Shanghai was 5090 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week.
Futures: thermal coal futures fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of double coke futures narrowed. Thermal coal futures: on April 22, the closing price of thermal coal futures (active contract) was 822 yuan / ton, down 7.0 yuan / ton this week. Coking coal and coke futures: on April 22, the closing price of coke futures (active contract) was 3830 yuan / ton, down 68.5 yuan / ton this week; Coking coal futures (active contract) closed at 3000.5 yuan / ton, down 14.5 yuan / ton this week. The price difference of coke and coking coal futures was 829.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 148 yuan / ton.
Transportation: the freight rate index of coastal coal rebounded slightly. Coastal coal freight rate: on April 22, China’s coastal coal freight rate composite index was 738 points, an increase of 53.6 points over the same period last week; Maritime coal price index 780 points, an increase of 59.7 points over the same period last week. Transportation volume of Datong Qinhuangdao railway: in March 2022, the coal transportation volume of Datong Qinhuangdao railway was 38.87 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.00%.
This week’s view: this week, the price of power coal pit mouth fell, and the price of coking coal continued to rise. In terms of thermal coal: the weekly output of the main producing areas was basically flat month on month, the port inventory was transferred to the downstream, and the inventory of the whole society remained at a normal level. The international coal price is rising at a high level, and the import supplement effect is still limited. The current coal price basically digests the expectation of weak demand, and it is expected that the short-term coal price will remain volatile. Coking coal: under the background of steady growth, the overall inventory decreased slightly month on month. It is expected that coking coal will maintain prosperity, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Recommended combination: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Yankuang energy, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) .
Risk tips: economic growth stalls, coal mines under construction are put into operation beyond expectations, policy regulation risks, upgrading of safety supervision, etc.
