Since this year, under the complex internal and external environment, the A-share market has continued to be under pressure. Stock private placement is common, and 10 billion star private placement is also walking on thin ice.
Recently, the well-known private equity Panjing investment held an online roadshow. Chen Qin, the company's managing partner, investment research director and fund manager, attended the meeting and shared his latest views on the market. Chen Qin said that he has felt great pressure this year, and various emergencies have caused great disturbance to the market.
in his opinion, at present, the market has found the bottom of the policy and is in the state of grinding the bottom at this stage. It will take some time for the bottom of the market and economy. We are more concerned about whether China's epidemic situation and control measures will have a broader impact on the economy. The overall situation in the second half of this year will be better than that in the first half of this year, and the market opportunity may be biased towards the style of growth stocks
emergencies have caused great disturbance to the economy and market
"From the beginning of the year to now, we do feel great pressure and a certain headwind. There are many reasons. Since this year, various emergencies have caused great disturbance and impact on the whole investment environment and economic environment." Chen Qin said at the beginning of his speech.
Panjing investment is a private placement of China's first tier stocks. It was established in 2016 and implemented platform operation internally. Representatives Zhuang Tao and Chen Qin are all star investment managers. Chen Qin joined Panjing investment in february2018 and worked as a managing partner, investment research director and fund manager. He has more than 20 years of investment research experience at home and abroad. He was the chief investment officer of Singapore Bisheng (APS) asset management company (QFII) in China; Assistant to the general manager of Tianhong Fund Management Co., Ltd., chairman of the joint investment committee and director of equity investment; Managing director (MD) of Harvest Fund, senior fund manager and research director, member of Investment Committee and head of new third board business. In addition, he also worked in many well-known securities and fund companies at home and abroad.
Chen Qin said that some factors encountered this year are indeed unprecedented. For example, the Russian Ukrainian war in geopolitics has caused great disturbance to some important global commodities, supply chain and logistics. The prices of some related commodities have increased extremely due to supply concerns, which has brought rising cost pressure to the manufacturing industry and even people's livelihood. This deviates from the judgment of PPI at the beginning of the year, causing changes in inflation expectations of global investors. At the same time, this has also led to a sharp decline in global preference for risky assets.
In addition, repeated measures to control and stabilize the supply chain in some regions of China have had a great impact, especially in some regions. Since late March, it has caused troubles to the production of many enterprises. It also has a great impact on the consumer industry where people gather. Although the economic data in the first quarter is similar to market expectations, the downward pressure on the economy has not been alleviated recently under the superposition of factors such as the epidemic.
Chen Qin also pointed out that the Fed's interest rate hike has enabled investors at home and abroad to take certain risk aversion measures for long-term assets. In March, the outflow scale of funds going north was large, not only in a shares. Due to the increase of risk aversion, the Hong Kong stock market also experienced epic fluctuations in the first quarter, especially in some sectors with large capital inflow and high valuation in the early stage.
"these are some of the major concerns in the current capital market. Since this year, the issuance of public and private funds has been weak. At the same time, the wealth effect has not been obvious since last year, and even many investors have actually lost money, which has also led to the shortage of incremental funds in the market. What we see more is the game of stock funds. The hot spots in the market are relatively scattered and the duration is very short." Chen Qin said
maintain medium and high positions and carry out certain hedging protection
Facing the market environment exceeding expectations, Chen Qin still maintains medium and high positions and has done some hedging protection.
\u3000\u3000 "For the funds under my own management, at the beginning of the year, we still adhered to some investment themes that were relatively optimistic in the past few years, did not make more style changes, and basically focused on the layout of high-end manufacturing, high-end consumption, new energy, military medicine, etc. these sectors have been under great pressure for some time in the past. When the market risk preference is relatively low, it is difficult to achieve significant excess returns by relying on alpha of individual stocks alone Or absolute return. Our entire investment research team, including myself, still selects investment targets based on the medium and long-term fundamentals of the industry and the company. Large style rotation is not what we are good at. " Chen Qin said.
he stressed that as long as the fundamentals of the selected target are solid, even if the style is absent for a while and the phased performance is poor, a good company will reflect its own value in the medium and long term. In this process, Chen Qin and Panjing team also made judgments on macro and market risks, and finally maintained a medium to high position selection
However, Chen Qin also used some stock index futures as hedging protection. At the same time, he also made some hedging protection for some stocks whose fundamentals are not solid enough, future profit prospects are not clear enough, or may be affected in the short term. Overall, Chen Qin's position in the first quarter was still dominated by a shares, and the allocation proportion of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks was relatively low.
He also mentioned Hong Kong stocks in particular. This year, Hong Kong stocks fluctuated very much, and many sectors and individual stocks fluctuated greatly, while Chen Qin's exposure to Hong Kong stock positions was very low.
According to the data of Chinese tripartite institutions, as of the end of the first quarter, the number of 10 billion private institutions was 115, with an average revenue of - 9.14% in the first quarter. In the first quarter, more than 10 billion private placements suffered losses, and only 10 10 10 billion private placements achieved positive returns. As a first-line star private placement with outstanding performance in the past few years, the performance of Panjing investment has been under pressure this year, and the products managed by Chen Qin have also suffered a large withdrawal. However, from the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the long-term performance is still good.
It is worth mentioning that Zhuang Tao, chairman of Panjing investment, recently explained the trend of employment performance wave in a letter to fund investors. Zhuang Tao said that the fundamental reason for the pullback lies in the extreme style change of the market. In addition, the trend of junk stocks is far beyond imagination. All kinds of hot money crazy hype themes and concepts, resulting in the decline of hedging effect. In addition, there are "several stocks that are not selected well". He sincerely hoped that investors would be more patient, and said he would do his duty as a fund manager, be diligent and responsible, and strive to recover losses for everyone in the second half of this year.
the environment in the second half of the year may be more favorable for growth stock investment
At the end of the roadshow, Chen Qin shared his views on the future market. He judged that at the present stage, the market is at the bottom, and the market bottom and economic bottom still need time. The internal and external environment in the second half of this year will be better than that in the first half of this year, and the market style may be more inclined to growth.
"I agree with what many external analysts have said. Now the end of the policy must have come. For some time in the future, even this year, China's policy level should be loose, and stable growth is very important.
The Russian Ukrainian war has entered another stage. In the early stage, the panic and risk avoidance of global investors will be passivated to a certain extent, and the impact of the war on bulk commodities will gradually come to an end. What we call the bottom of the market, now we may pay more attention to whether China's epidemic and its control measures will have a wider impact on economic activities. Now we have seen some positive phenomena. Various ministries and commissions have strengthened coordination, and some enterprises have resumed work and production. " Chen Qin pointed out.
The Yangtze River Delta is a gathering place of Chinese industry. According to Chen Qin, in the recent intensive interviews with different industries and enterprises, we can more or less feel that micro enterprises have been affected. This aspect can be said to be the most concerned issue of current investors.
\u3000\u3000 "I think the market has entered the bottom grinding stage, and the policy bottom may have been reached, but the bottom of the fundamentals will take some time. With the introduction of economic policies and the emergence of the effect of epidemic control, when everyone expects that economic activities will recover effectively, investors' risk preference will be improved, and then the market bottom may be reached. If there is no risk, the situation should be improved to a certain extent in the second half of the second quarter The real operation of the enterprise will gradually recover in the third quarter, and the situation in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year. " Chen Qin predicted.
he believes that in the second half of the year, with the digestion and mitigation of adverse factors, the market style may be more inclined to growth. In the medium term, the market also has several positive aspects: first, after this round of adjustment at the beginning of the year, the valuation of many growth stocks and sectors has become attractive from a medium - and long-term perspective; Second, the country's recent intensive steady growth policy will gradually show results in the second half of this year; Third, in the first and second quarters, the manufacturing and consumption lagged behind the progress. In the second half of the year, enterprises may work overtime to catch up with the work, and the profit growth may be greatly improved compared with the first half of the year
When it comes to future investment operations, Chen Qin finally said that he will not switch styles at will. At the same time, he will closely track the fundamental changes of holding companies and maintain an alert attitude at all times
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