capital market
I. macro data
matters: the GDP growth in the first quarter basically met the consensus expectations of the market, and the economic operation logic reflected by the data is also relatively clear: the epidemic is the core variable affecting the current economic recovery, and policies are made to hedge the economic downturn. In addition, the weakness of real estate has not changed significantly, and the manufacturing industry is still resilient due to weak external demand. However, it is necessary to observe the adverse impact of the continuous impact of the follow-up epidemic on China’s supply chain.
interpretation: in the short term, there are certain variables in geopolitics, the trend of China’s epidemic, the implementation of stable growth policy and the upward range of US debt. It is suggested to follow and wait and respond flexibly. The undervalued value is still relatively dominant, but the structural differentiation may enter the middle and late stage. The Treasury bond yield center may remain low in the current range, and it may take some time for the market to repair economic expectations. (Capital Securities)
II. Monetary policy
matters: April 20, 2022 LPR quotation: 3.70% for 1-year varieties and 4.60% for varieties over 5 years. The interest rates of 1-year varieties and 5-year varieties were the same as those in the previous period.
interpretation: recently, a number of loose monetary policies have been implemented, and the policy space for further easing has narrowed. However, under the background that the epidemic situation in some areas has dragged down the process of steady growth and wide credit, it is expected that the loose orientation of monetary policy will not be reversed, but the follow-up monetary policy may gradually shift to structural support. This RRR reduction is a combination of comprehensive RRR reduction and directional RRR reduction, which has increased support for small and micro enterprises and “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”. Recently, the central bank’s notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development mentioned 23 measures, including timely increasing the amount of refinancing for industries seriously affected by the epidemic, providing refinancing support for transportation and logistics, scientific and technological innovation, coal cleaning and other fields, and strengthening the inclusive small and micro loan support tools for small and micro enterprises and other troubled market entities. At the same time, the circular emphasizes the need to give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy, and increase financial support for industries, enterprises and people affected by the epidemic. It is expected that monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy will form a policy synergy in the future, which will offset the impact of the epidemic on the economy to a certain extent, and the structural monetary policy will also be strengthened. ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) )
III. real estate
matters: according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the monthly growth rate of sales amount and sales area in March was – 26.2%, – 17.7% respectively, and the decline rate expanded by 6.9pct and 8.1pct respectively. In contrast, the year-on-year growth rate of equity sales amount and sales area of top 100 real estate enterprises of Kerry Rui in March was – 52.6%, – 54.6% respectively. The sales data of the Bureau of statistics was still better than that of top 100 enterprises of Kerry Rui; The average sales price in March was 9252 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.3% and a month-on-month increase of – 6%. The growth rate of house prices in a single month turned negative again after returning to positive from January to February this year, and the overall sales market is still relatively depressed.
interpretation: since the beginning of the year, more than 60 cities have issued relaxation policies such as reducing the down payment ratio of house purchase, relaxing the purchase and sale restrictions and reducing the mortgage interest rate. The coverage has been extended to the key first and second tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, and the intensity of regulation has been continuously strengthened; In March, many departments jointly voiced their voices to resolve real estate risks, boost market confidence and improve the pessimism of the market related to real estate tax. At the same time, the current market wait-and-see mood is heavy, the epidemic situation in some regions is repeated, the policy relaxation is not transmitted to the ground, and the sales stabilization still needs to wait. It is expected that more high-level cities will relax the policies related to entering and leaving Taiwan. We believe that the relaxation of policies will increase as scheduled, the upward trend of the industry beta will remain unchanged, the steady concentration of Green Housing enterprises will accelerate, and the advantages of the leading green housing enterprises in investment and financing will appear. At the same time, with the strengthening of sales and purchase restrictions, pre-sale supervision and credit regulation at this stage, the opportunities for improving the liquidity of private housing enterprises will increase, the valuation cost performance is prominent, and the allocation can be moderately lowered to the elastic target of the waist. A shares are recommended China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) Gemdale Corporation(600383) Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ； H shares recommend Longhu group, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development and Xuhui holding group. ( Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) )
IV. exchange rate
matters: in the morning trading on April 20, the RMB against the US dollar once reached the level of 6.41, which is the first time this year that the onshore RMB exchange rate has stood at the level of 6.40, and the first time that the onshore US dollar against RMB exchange rate has touched the level of 6.41 since October 19, 2021.
interpretation: in the long run, China’s economic fundamentals support the valuation center of RMB exchange rate, which has remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level for a long time. This means that the RMB has neither a basis for long-term depreciation nor a basis for long-term appreciation. Under the background of the increase of short-term elasticity and the intensification of two-way fluctuations, there will still be the logic of mean regression in the medium and long term of RMB exchange rate. From the perspective of the bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB, the average price level since the 811 exchange rate reform in 2015 is before 6.65-6.70. At present, the RMB exchange rate is still on the stronger side, and there is a long-term possibility of returning to the center in the future. From the perspective of the real effective exchange rate, the RMB real effective exchange rate calculated by the bank for international settlements was at the historical highest level of 132.21 at the end of February, while the average level in the past five years was 124.06. Even considering that China’s inflation this year is lower than that of its trading partners (the inflation difference will correct part of the real effective exchange rate), the nominal exchange rate should also be corrected under the logic of mean reversion. To sum up, we believe that the RMB exchange rate will have some weakening pressure after breaking through important technical points in the short term, but the pressure is relatively controllable. In the medium and long term, we will continue to maintain the view that the RMB exchange rate will gradually return to the long-term equilibrium level. It is expected that the US dollar / RMB exchange rate at the end of the year will still be 6.65. ( China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) )
V: stock market
matters: in the past five trading days, important indexes have fallen to varying degrees.
In terms of industry, the decline of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile and clothing, food and beverage and automobile sectors was relatively small; Coal, non-ferrous metals, real estate and other sectors fell relatively large.
interpretation: our judgment on the medium and long-term market bottom of A-Shares remains unchanged. There are more factors to be observed in the short term. On the one hand, the performance release has entered the final stage, and the pressure on investors to prevent the performance of listed companies from falling short of expectations has increased. On the other hand, a heavy meeting will be held later in April. While analyzing the economic situation in the first quarter, it is necessary to make arrangements for the economic work in the next stage. The further clarification of the policy will constitute a reference for the development of the future market. Therefore, we should be patient in the allocation. The congestion of most of the short-term “stable growth” sectors has been at a high level in recent five years, and the risks are gradually accumulating, so we need to be cautious. Investors can tap opportunities for performance exceeding expectations around the first quarterly report. For the medium and long term, after the economy stabilizes, the growth sector is still expected to return to the main line, and the long-term allocation value will be more prominent. (Bohai Securities)
industry events
I. catering industry
. 1q22 the total amount of social zero was 108659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the catering income of social zero was 1065.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, of which the catering income of units above the quota was 240.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; In March 2022, the total amount of social zero was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, and the catering income of social zero was 293.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, of which the catering income of units above the quota was 72.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%.
interpretation: the social zero data of in March reflects that the catering industry is under obvious pressure under the aggravation of the epidemic, and the anti risk ability of Catering Enterprises above the quota is relatively better than the whole industry. In April, it is expected that the catering industry as a whole is still under pressure, but the supply chain recovery situation is good. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the demand for prefabricated vegetables and quick-frozen food in the home scene is increasing, and the relevant targets such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , etc; 2) Lock in the breakfast scene, launch the group meal business, and is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of Shanghai takeout Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) ; 3) Jiumaojiu with high efficiency and strong anti risk ability of single store model. ( Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) )
II. Nuclear power industry
matters: the executive meeting of the State Council was held on April 20 to determine measures to ensure and increase energy supply and improve the guarantee capacity of energy for economic and social development. The meeting pointed out that under the premise of strict supervision and ensuring absolute safety, nuclear power should be developed in an orderly manner. Three new nuclear power unit projects that have been included in the national plan after years of preparation and comprehensive evaluation and review shall be approved.
interpretation: China has a positive and clear attitude towards the development of nuclear power. The prosperity of nuclear power continues to improve. Batch construction + post-treatment of nuclear waste opens up the growth space of nuclear power. We are optimistic about companies with high market share and high proportion of nuclear power business in the subdivided field of nuclear power. We suggest paying attention to relevant companies in the nuclear power industry chain and focusing on equipment links: Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Sinoseal Holding Co.Ltd(300470) . Operators focus on: China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) (covered by the environmental protection group). ( Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) )
III. chemical fiber industry
matters: on April 21, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the guiding opinions on the high-quality development of chemical fiber industry (hereinafter referred to as the opinions). The guiding opinions on the high-quality development of chemical fiber industry was issued to accelerate the rapid development of chemical fiber industry: the opinions pointed out that by 2025, the industrial added value of China’s chemical fiber enterprises above Designated Size will increase by 5% annually, and the proportion of chemical fiber output in the world will be basically stable.
interpretation: the opinions clearly points out that China should vigorously develop traditional chemical fibers, high-performance fibers, bio based fibers and degradable fibers. We continue to be optimistic about the future development prospects of the industry. Suggestions for attention in the field of polyester filament: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ; Suggestions for attention in viscose staple fiber field: Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Nanjing Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(600889) ; Suggestions for attention in the field of spandex: Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , Xinxiang Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000949) , Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) ; Suggestions for attention in the field of carbon fiber: Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) (a + H), Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Jilin Carbon Valley, Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying; Suggestions for attention in the field of bio based materials: Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) , Ningxia Xinri Hengli Steel Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600165) ; Suggestions for attention in the field of Degradable Plastics: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) , Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) . ( Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) )
IV. insurance industry
matters: on April 20, the general office of the State Council issued opinions on promoting the development of individual pension, clearly requiring to promote the construction of individual pension system suitable for China’s national conditions, improve the multi-level and multi pillar pension insurance system, and further the construction of three pillars of pension.
interpretation: the construction of individual pension system further confirms the huge pension pressure currently faced by Chinese society. The flexibility of investment scope will further shape the asset management pattern. Health management and home-based pension may usher in a good opportunity for development. Listed insurance companies in the insurance industry will actively layout the field of health pension, which will help further strengthen their competitive advantage, It is suggested to focus on high-quality insurance enterprises that continue to layout in the insurance + pension sector. (Huachuang securities)
v. education industry
matters: new vocational education law was passed by vote and will come into force on May 1, 2022. On April 20, 2022, the 34th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress voted to adopt the newly revised Vocational Education Law of the people’s Republic of China. The new vocational education law has eight chapters and sixty-nine articles, which aims to “promote the high-quality development of vocational education, improve the quality and technical skills of workers, promote employment and entrepreneurship, build a powerful country in education, human resources and skilled society, and promote the construction of socialist modernization”. It will come into force on May 1, 2022.
interpretation: new vocational education law lays a solid legal foundation for building a modern vocational education system with Chinese characteristics, continues the state’s encouraging attitude towards vocational education since 2019, and further benefits the academic vocational education and vocational skill training sector. The core recommends the leading targets of private higher education and vocational education segments. The core recommends China Oriental Education, China Education holding, hope education, Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) , and pays attention to Yuhua education, Gaoxin education group, Neusoft education, China Science and technology training and Zhonghui group. (Guosheng securities)
VI. game industry
matters: on April 20, according to the report of PC game users in major markets released by the game Age Research Institute, the international version of steam became the largest market for steam, with an annual revenue of 1327.2 billion yen (about 65.996 billion yuan). According to the report of PC game users in major markets released by the Japanese Research Institute game Age Research Institute, steam international has become the largest market for steam.
interpretation: we are optimistic about the game industry for a long time, and the end game market may be underestimated. China’s end travel is in the stage of weak supply and strong demand. Companies with end travel R & D strength and launch high-quality end travel are expected to reap the greatest dividends. Focus on leading game companies with experience in end game research and development, strong research and operation strength and rich IP and product reserves, such as [Netease], [Tencent], [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ], [ Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) ], [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ], [ Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co.Ltd(603258) ], etc. At the same time, pay attention to [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ] with continuous transformation success and strong operation ability and high-quality game development ability. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the game industry. (Shanghai Securities)
VII. Computer industry
matters: on April 19, the Central Commission for comprehensively deepening reform held its 25th meeting and deliberated and adopted the guiding opinions on strengthening the construction of digital government. We believe that the meeting of the Shenzhen Reform Commission will focus on the construction of digital government. On the one hand, it will accelerate the construction of government informatization, bring considerable market increment, and the prosperity of subdivided fields is expected to improve. On the other hand, it will also inject a booster into the construction of digital economy, form synergy with various digital economy subjects, and accelerate the digital transformation of thousands of lines and industries.
interpretation: the Shenzhen Reform Commission puts forward the construction of digital government again, which reflects the government’s attitude of leading the development of digital economy. Digitization will accelerate the implementation of the government’s functions of economic regulation, market supervision, social management, public services and ecological environment protection. Specifically, we suggest to pay attention to: Government cloud solutions: Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Inesa Intelligent Tech Inc(600602) ; Smart transportation / City: Pci Technology Group Co.Ltd(600728) , China Transinfo Technology Co.Ltd(002373) , Beijing Egova Co.Ltd(300075) , Hengfeng Information Technology Co.Ltd(300605) , etc; Human resources and social security service platform: Neusoft Corporation(600718) , Insigma Technology Co.Ltd(600797) , Ylz Information Technology Co.Ltd(300096) , Hengfeng Information Technology Co.Ltd(300605) , etc; Tax system and software: Shuiyou software, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) , Aisino Corporation(600271) , etc; Judicial IT solutions: Beijing Thunisoft Co.Ltd(300271) , Shanghai Golden Bridge Infotech Co.Ltd(603918) , tongdahai, Beiming software, etc. ( Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) )
