Recently, the retail sector has been active, and individual stocks have set off a wave of limit trading for many times. As of the closing on April 22, Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.Ltd(000715) has achieved five boards, Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade Group Limited By Share Ltd(601086) 3 boards, Rumere Co.Ltd(301088) , Shanghai Dragon Corporation(600630) , New Hua Du Supercenter Co.Ltd(002264) 2 boards. Other stocks also strengthened on a large scale. According to the statistics in the past five trading days, Kuaijishan Shaoxing Rice Wine Co.Ltd(601579) rose nearly 37%, and more than 10 stocks such as Jiangsu Hongdou Industrial Co.Ltd(600400) , Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) , Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container Co.Ltd(301004) , etc. rose more than 10%P align = “center” note: retail stocks have strengthened recently (closing on April 22)
several institutions predict that the bottom has reached, and consumer stocks are expected to usher in the market
Compared with the retail sector that has been active for many days, the market has performed poorly recently. In the five trading days this week (April 18 to April 22), the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes have fallen by nearly 3.9% and 5.1%, while the gem index has fallen by more than 6%. In terms of sectors, real estate and covid-19 treatment sectors led the decline in the two cities, with a decline of more than 10% on the 5th. The performance of chemical, cement, steel, non-ferrous metals and other sectors was poor. A shares have fallen for days, and the market is also hotly debating when the market bottom search will end. At present, many institutions said that the market bottom grinding process may continue and repeat, but investors need not be too pessimistic.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that at present, A-Shares have shown some bottom characteristics in terms of policy, valuation, capital and behavior signals. Combined with the current growth environment, it may take time to wait for a clearer turning point, and still maintain the judgment that the current market is in the “bottom grinding” period. Although the short-term market may still be repeated, the opportunities gradually outweigh the risks in the medium and long term, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future performance. Structurally, undervalued “steady growth” still has a certain allocation value. Pay attention to the bottom-up stock selection opportunities in the consumption field, and it may still need to wait for the opportunity to create growth style .
3 month social zero data under pressure, mandatory, consumption toughness
Recently, the National Bureau of statistics released the social zero data in the first quarter, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 108659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Among them, in March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. By category, the growth of mandatory consumer goods is steady, which is better than optional consumer goods Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the social zero data in March was greatly affected by the epidemic, while the impact of the epidemic on consumption has continued since April. During the epidemic period, mandatory consumer goods such as grain, oil, food and beverage showed strong resilience, and residents around the country stepped up their hoarding behavior, which also increased the sales of these categories.
At present, the impact of the epidemic still exists, the situation is gradually getting better, and the market is waiting for the repair after the epidemic. According to the statistics of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Research Report, from the perspective of market performance, the previous epidemic repair transactions also showed a rotation law from mandatory to optional, but the expectation is often faster than reality: mandatory consumption ( Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing, food processing, etc.) the period with the highest excess return was around the peak of the epidemic ; With the number of confirmed cases falling down significantly and the impact of the epidemic receding ( usually half a month after the inflection point), logistics, catering chain and travel chain show stronger stock price performance and flexibility . In the previous market of epidemic repair, the excess return performance of tourism scenic spots, hotels, aviation and other long-distance consumption related sectors is the strongest Within 3 months after the turning point of epidemic, the required / logistics / catering chain / Travel chain can obtain relative income performance .
focus on the elasticity of optional consumption recovery, and the medium and high-end have more growth potential
Affected by the disturbance of the epidemic, the consumption data in March was poor, the social consumption data was lower than the market expectation, and the performance of retail companies in the first quarter disclosed recently failed to shine Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the overall performance of China’s consumption data in the first half of 2022 will still be under great pressure, and we look forward to the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption in the second half of the year. If some retail enterprises have oversold after the disclosure of the first quarter report of 2022, investors are also advised to pay attention gradually. The gold and jewelry industry is still relatively optimistic in the coming months. In view of the fact that the offline consumption data of gold category is better than that of jewelry inlay category, the individual stocks of gold and jewelry sub sector may be divided to a certain extent.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) also pointed out that the current epidemic situation in China is still severe, and the consumption situation is still likely to fluctuate due to the impact of the epidemic. In the short term, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, pay attention to the optional consumption sectors with greater recovery elasticity under the marginal improvement of the impact of the epidemic ; In the medium and long term, the proportion of middle-income groups will expand under the background of common prosperity, which is expected to promote the marginal demand of optional consumption, medium and high-end optional consumption with high quality has more growth potential .
