The Vice Minister of the Ministry of heavy industry, Xin Bin, said that China’s economy and trade bureau still faces the challenge of stabilizing the supply in the first quarter of 2024, but the new economic contraction in the third quarter of 2024 still needs to be strengthened, Implement precision hedging.
Xin Guobin stressed that in view of the impact of the epidemic, the Ministry of industry and information technology started to establish the “white list” system of key industrial chain enterprises such as epidemic prevention materials, people’s livelihood guarantee and supply, spring ploughing preparation and strategic emerging industries in March, and vigorously coordinated and solved the problems of blocked logistics and interrupted supply of parts and components. At present, four batches of key industrial chain supply chain “white list” enterprises have been released, with a total of more than 2000.
“Most of these more than 2000 enterprises are the leaders of the industrial chain, and there are thousands of enterprises related to them in the industrial chain. Now various departments and relevant local governments have established a horizontal coordination and vertical linkage working mechanism to strive to solve the problems of blocking points and pain points in the industrial chain of the supply chain.” Xin Guobin said.
For the problem of how to coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and steady industrial growth, Xin Guobin said that he would highlight the “six efforts”, promote the implementation of the policy of steady industrial growth, dredge the blocking points in the supply chain of the industrial chain, enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, cultivate high-quality enterprise groups, solve difficulties for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, strive to accelerate the transformation of digital intelligence and green, and create an environment conducive to the development of the manufacturing industry.
black swan and grey rhinoceros incidents increase
Xin Guobin said that the main indicators of industrial economic operation achieved steady growth in the first quarter. However, at present, the Omicron virus is raging all over the world, international geopolitical conflicts are heating up, black swan and grey rhinoceros events such as the food crisis and the Fed’s interest rate hike are increasing, there are some differences between the feelings of micro subjects and macro data, and a series of new changes and new challenges have emerged in the internal and external situation.
first, the external environment is becoming more complex and changeable, and uncertain and unstable factors have increased significantly
Xin Guobin pointed out that in 2022, the differences in anti epidemic policies and unequal distribution of vaccines have led to more differentiation in the recovery of different economies and slower global economic growth.
Recently, the OECD and IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2022 by 1 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. Under the combined influence of monetary easing, supply shocks and other factors, inflation in major economies hit record highs. With the decline of economic growth and the rise of inflation, the global economy may fall into a “stagflation” situation.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve has started the process of raising interest rates and the macro policy shift of developed countries may have a great impact on the stability of the global economy and financial markets. International geopolitical conflicts have triggered a sharp rise in crude oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, increased imported inflationary pressure, and disturbed the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain.
second, the epidemic situation in China has spread in many places and impacted the industrial economy through various channels
Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic situation in China has shown the characteristics of “many points, wide coverage and frequent occurrence”. At present, it has affected 30 provinces, regions and nearly 200 prefectures and cities. Xin Guobin said that affected by the epidemic, the flow of people and logistics are not smooth in some areas, the transportation of raw materials and finished products is blocked, and the production suspension and production restriction of enterprises have increased significantly. The daily average of the national vehicle freight flow index in March increased by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly lower than the growth rate of 6.2% from January to February.
“In the automotive equipment, electronics and other industries in the Yangtze River Delta, the shutdown of one enterprise may affect a large number of enterprises in the industrial chain supply chain. Ensuring the smoothness and stability of the industrial chain supply chain is related to the overall situation of economic and social security and stability.” Xin Guobin said.
The State Council has held meetings for many times and issued relevant policies and measures, requiring full efforts to ensure smooth freight logistics and coordinate and solve the prominent problems restricting the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain. The Ministry of industry and information technology has sent working groups to the front line of anti epidemic in Shanghai and other places to strengthen the coordination between the front and rear, strengthen the linkage between ministries and provinces, and ensure the stable production of key enterprises and the smooth operation of key industrial chains.
third, supply side constraints continue to appear, and the pressure to maintain supply and stabilize prices of chips and important mineral resources increases
The structural shortage of chips continues, and the delivery date of chips from some large international manufacturers has been extended to more than 30 weeks, which continues to restrict the release of production capacity of automobiles and consumer electronics products.
In addition, copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, platinum and other important mineral resources are highly dependent on foreign countries and relatively concentrated import sources. Under the combined influence of geographical conflicts, production capacity cycles and capital speculation, the risk of shortage has increased significantly, and the situation of global shipping stagnation and rising freight prices has not been significantly alleviated.
fourth, the recovery of market demand is constrained, and the endogenous kinetic energy of industrial economic recovery is still insufficient
Since March, the recovery of consumption has been repeatedly disturbed by the epidemic. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in prefectural and municipal cities with locally confirmed cases have accounted for more than 35% of the country.
Xin Guobin believes that as some regions raise the level of epidemic prevention and control, consumer places are limited, and consumption growth may slow down again. The lack of investment stamina, the impact of the epidemic and the increase of market uncertainty have led to the decline of investment willingness of manufacturing enterprises. At the same time, export uncertainty is also rising. With the ebb of stimulus policies in developed economies, the gradual recovery of production capacity in emerging economies, the weakening demand for epidemic prevention materials, and the superposition of last year’s high base factors, China’s industrial export growth is facing callback pressure.
fifth, small and medium-sized enterprises still face many difficulties in production and operation, and market expectations are still weak
Xin Guobin pointed out that the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises still face more difficulties, and the market expectation is still weak. Affected by factors such as the rise of raw material prices, the cost pressure of enterprises, especially middle and downstream enterprises, continues to increase. Some enterprises increase their income without increasing profits, and dare not accept orders. Although the enterprise debt clearing work has achieved positive results, the problem of difficult payment collection of small and medium-sized enterprises is still prominent, and the enterprise confidence and market expectation are still insufficient.
“In March, the PMI of small manufacturing enterprises was 46.6%. Although it was 1.5 percentage points higher than that in February, it was below the boom and bust line for 11 consecutive months. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.5, 2.9 percentage points lower than that in the previous month, which was also lower than the critical value. The inventory of enterprises was also increasing, and many enterprises felt that the sales chain had a great impact.” Xin Guobin said.
He believes that since March, some indicators have slowed down significantly and downward pressure has further increased. The triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation” is still prominent in the industrial field, and the recovery is still uneven and unstable. However, China’s industrial development still has great toughness and potential. The effects of various industrial steady growth policies introduced since the fourth quarter of last year are continuing to show. Policy dividends such as combined tax cuts and fee reductions, enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and expanding domestic demand are still being released, and positive factors supporting the steady growth of the industrial economy are also accumulating.
The long-term fundamentals of China’s industrial economy have not changed, and the overall trend of recovery and development has not changed.
detailed implementation of relief policy
On how to coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and steady industrial growth, Xin Guobin said that he would strengthen forward-looking research and judgment, do a good job in cross cycle adjustment, implement accurate hedging, and highlight six focus points.
first, focus on promoting the implementation of the policy of stable industrial growth
Vigorously promote the implementation plan for invigorating the operation of the industrial economy and several policies for promoting the steady growth of the industrial economy. Strengthen the scheduling and monitoring of the operation of key industries, key provinces and cities, key parks and key enterprises, study and judge the situation, strengthen the reserve of policy research, and timely study and issue new policies and measures according to the new situation, new problems and new requirements.
“In this year’s national comprehensive supervision on reducing the burden on enterprises and promoting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, we will focus on supervising the implementation of various policies for steady industrial growth, so as to ensure that all policies that have been issued are implemented to the letter.” Xin Guobin said.
second, efforts should be made to clear the supply chain blockages in the industrial chain
The Ministry of industry and information technology has organized the establishment of a smooth coordination platform for the supply chain of the automobile industry chain. At present, it has received more than 200 demands for various problems fed back by enterprises, involving nearly 1000 enterprises. At the same time, we are also paying close attention to the “white list” system of fine key industrial chain supply chain enterprises, strengthening ministerial and provincial coordination and cross regional coordination, concentrating resources and giving priority to ensuring the resumption of work and production of enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine.
We will strengthen the supply and price stability of important raw materials and strengthen the supply guarantee of key products such as potash fertilizer and rare and precious metals. We will continue to implement the action of tackling key problems in automobile chips, make every effort to improve the chip supply capacity, and promote leading enterprises to strengthen and supplement the chain.
We will earnestly ensure the supply of medical materials, continuously improve the supply guarantee system of key medical materials, strengthen the production scheduling and supply guarantee of medical materials such as nucleic acid detection and antigen detection reagents, vaccines, key drugs and medical equipment, and spare no effort to ensure the demand for anti epidemic medical materials in Shanghai and other places.
third, focus on enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry
We will strengthen the tackling of key core technologies, focus on the key common technologies urgently needed by the industry, continue to layout and build a number of national manufacturing innovation centers, promote the aggregation of industrial clusters and industrial chains, form linkage and synergy between upstream and downstream innovation in the manufacturing industry, and accelerate the transfer, diffusion and commercial application of scientific research achievements.
To promote the reconstruction of the industrial base, we will implement a number of industrial base reconstruction projects, improve the organizational methods such as “taking the lead” and speed up the breakthrough. Release the catalogue of excellent demonstration and promotion products and processes, implement the “one-stop” demonstration application of key product processes, support enterprises to make good use of preferential policies such as the first set (set) and the first batch of insurance compensation, solve the concerns of “dare not use and don’t want to use”, promote product iterative innovation, and speed up the transformation into “usable” and “easy-to-use” products.
We will promote the development of advanced manufacturing clusters and continue to implement the special action for the development of advanced manufacturing clusters. Improve the cultivation mechanism of advanced manufacturing clusters, further study targeted measures to support the development of clusters, accelerate the cultivation of a number of national advanced manufacturing clusters in the fields of electronic information, high-end equipment, automobile and new materials, and promote the cultivation of a number of provincial advanced manufacturing clusters.
fourth, focus on cultivating high-quality enterprise groups and spare no effort to solve difficulties for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises
The Ministry of industry and information technology will focus on promoting the implementation of the reform policies that have been issued to help enterprises and benefit enterprises, and deeply carry out the service action of “benefiting enterprises together” for small and medium-sized enterprises. Work with relevant departments to study policies and measures to further assist small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. Jointly with relevant departments to carry out special rectification actions on the “Three Chaos” problems related to enterprises, deeply promote the prevention and resolution of accounts owed to small and medium-sized enterprises, and create a good environment conducive to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Guide small and medium-sized enterprises to focus on the specific fields they are good at, take the development path of “specialization and innovation”, and cultivate more “little giant” enterprises and single champion enterprises.
fifth, focus on accelerating the transformation of digital, intelligent and green
Promote the development of digitalization and intelligence in the manufacturing industry, carry out in-depth digitalization transformation of the manufacturing industry, implement industry digitalization transformation in key areas, improve the supporting standard system for digitalization transformation, cultivate enterprises’ digital technology application ability, and steadily promote the business processes and equipment of industrial enterprises on the cloud platform on the premise of ensuring safety. Build a number of intelligent manufacturing factories. Continue to organize and carry out intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration, give play to the leading role of standards and pilot demonstration, and build more intelligent manufacturing factories.
Accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of industry, spare no efforts to promote the green transformation of key industries, and release the green and low-carbon upgrading and transformation oriented catalogue. Start a number of transformation and upgrading projects, carry out demonstration and application of green and low-carbon technologies and products, and promote low-carbon process innovation in key industries and fields. We will implement the action plan for reaching the carbon peak by 2030, carry out carbon peak action in the industrial field, formulate a series of special policies, and promote carbon peak in the industrial field in a stable, scientific and orderly manner. Further increase the supply of green and low-carbon products, strengthen the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, develop green intelligent ships, carry out green building materials to the countryside, and promote the green and low-carbon development of industry while cultivating new growth points.
We will strengthen the construction and integrated application of new information infrastructure, appropriately advance the layout and build a new generation of information infrastructure such as 5g, industrial Internet and data center. More than 6 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) g base stations will be built this year. We should attach equal importance to construction and use, promote construction with construction and use, and promote the coordinated development of information infrastructure construction and application scenarios. Accelerate the implementation of the industrial Internet innovation and development action plan, implement a number of industrial application demonstration projects, and excavate and promote a number of typical application scenarios of “5g + industrial Internet”.
sixth, strive to create an environment conducive to the development of manufacturing industry
Deepen reform, stimulate the driving force of industrial development, continue to implement the action of reducing the cost and burden of manufacturing industry, consolidate and expand the achievements of tax reduction and fee reduction, increase the strength of policies such as value-added tax retention and tax rebate, and promote the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction to favor manufacturing industry, especially advanced manufacturing industry. Further deepen the reform of “decentralization, management and service” in key areas and reduce institutional transaction costs.
We will strengthen financial support for the real economy, prepare guidance plans for technological transformation and upgrading of industrial enterprises, organize the implementation of special loan policies for manufacturing, and guide financial institutions to increase medium and long-term loans for manufacturing. We will deepen industrial and financial cooperation, implement special projects for the integration of science and technology industry and finance, give play to the role of government guidance funds, and leverage more social capital to support the high-quality development of manufacturing industry.
Strengthen the guarantee of manufacturing talent supply, strengthen the construction of manufacturing talent team, increase investment in the training of skilled talents, and connect the growth channel and development path of “skilled workers – skilled talents – highly skilled talents – craftsmen in big countries”. Guide manufacturing enterprises to improve the working environment of manufacturing employees and improve the treatment of manufacturing employees in improving quality and efficiency.
Expand high-level opening-up and cooperation, unswervingly follow the path of opening-up and development, closely promote China’s international double cycle, make good use of China’s international markets and resources, further improve the level of opening-up, accelerate the implementation of major foreign-funded projects in the field of advanced manufacturing, make use of the bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanism, further deepen international production capacity cooperation, and encourage Chinese enterprises to deeply integrate into the global industrial chain, value chain and supply chain, Innovate the supply chain, build a mutually beneficial and win-win industrial chain and supply chain interest community, and jointly maintain the stability of global industrial chain supply.
