The mobile phone market continued to fluctuate downward. On April 21, the global mobile phone market report for the first quarter of 2022 released by canalys, a data agency, showed that in the first quarter of this year, affected by the poor economic situation and the seasonal downturn in demand, the global smartphone shipments decreased by 11% year-on-year. In the Chinese market, there are also frequent reports of Android manufacturers reducing orders.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) analyst Guo Mingzhen previously said on social media that China's major Android mobile phone brands have cut about 170 million orders this year, accounting for 20% of the original shipment plan in 2022. Orders may be further reduced in the coming months.
"The demand inflection point of mobile phone supply chain is coming." A mobile phone supply chain person told reporters that when the tide recedes, the manufacturers with poor strength will be impacted, and this year will usher in severe market fluctuations.
head supply chain enterprises increased losses
The shrinking of mobile phone sales is being transmitted to the upstream. After the "surge" of prices last year, the prices of mobile phone supply chain devices such as camera and screen display are falling rapidly.
In the April CIS price released by Qunzhi consulting, the module price of 2m pixel products will drop by about 5% in the second quarter, while the chip price of 8m pixel products will be relatively stable in the second quarter after the chip price reduction in the first quarter, but the module price will still drop by about 1.0%.
In terms of high-pixel products, due to the rising cost pressure of the whole machine and the slowing down of pixel upgrading of medium and high-end models, 64M pixel products retain a certain market share. However, 64M pixel chips had a certain backlog of inventory when the demand was low in the early stage. In order to consume inventory and improve the market share of high-order pixels, some manufacturers began to compete at low prices. In addition, with the gradual maturity of the module assembly process, the cost of 64M pixel chip is reduced. Sigmaintell predicts that the overall 64M pixel product module price will decline by about 4.9% in the second quarter.
"The sluggish demand side and the inventory pressure after a large increase in orders last year are the reasons that affect the purchasing sentiment of mobile phone manufacturers." Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Qunzhi consulting, told reporters that in addition to a few devices such as memory devices and mobile phone chips, the prices of mobile phone supply chain devices in other categories decreased to varying degrees in the first quarter of this year.
The downturn in market sales is directly reflected in the financial reports of upstream manufacturers.
According to the statistics of another organization, JW insights, among the top 15 enterprises with losses of Listed Companies in the mobile phone industry chain in 2021, the total losses of the top 15 enterprises reached at least 10.6 billion yuan and the maximum reached nearly 15 billion yuan.
Specifically, it's mainly about ' Ofilm Group Co.Ltd(002456) billionyuan, followed by Jiangsu Kuangshun Photosensitivity New-Material Stock Co.Ltd(300537) , Svg Tech Group Co.Ltd(300331) , Tanyuan Technology Co.Ltd(603133) , Shenzhen Baoming Technology Co.Ltd(002992) , Suzhou Jinfu Technology Co.Ltd(300128) , Anhui Tatfook Technology Co.Ltd(300134) , Xiamen Hongxin Electronics Technology Group Inc(300657) .
Jiwei consulting believes that one of the important reasons for the loss is that affected by the reform of the smart phone industry, the demand of individual enterprise products in the market has decreased rapidly, and the enterprises have failed to keep up with the development of market changes. In the case of declining market demand, the industry competition has intensified and the price war has become the norm, which has greatly affected the company's profits.
market inflection point is approaching
In order to increase the supply chain of Huawei at the beginning of last year, Android manufacturers also increased the supply cycle in China.
Xu Qi, President of realme China, once said in an interview with reporters in April last year that before, the supply chain stock of enterprises was generally enough for seven or eight months (use), but the stock was prepared one year in advance in 2021.
The "hoarding" of orders from other manufacturers has also exacerbated the industry's demand for main chips.
Counterpoint research, a research firm, said that smartphone manufacturers have increased orders for parts since the end of 2020, but the shortage of semiconductors continues. Some smartphone OEMs and vendors met only 80% of their orders for key components in 2021.
However, since the end of last year, the market has suddenly reversed, and the downstream terminals have been actively grabbing orders to cutting orders in less than three months.
"The real market demand is masked by the shortage of parts. The number of orders manufacturers place in the supply chain does not represent the real demand of the market." The above mobile phone supply chain told reporters that at the peak of last year, the market of some components generally rose 8 to 10 times. Taking the shipment of mobile phone panels as an example, the shipment volume exceeded 500 million pieces in one quarter. However, at present, even the main chip manufacturers are carefully expanding their production.
Take MediaTek as an example. According to cinno research, the sales volume of MediaTek SOC (main chip) fell 25% month on month and 10.2% year-on-year in February this year, second only to Huawei Hisilicon sanctioned by the United States.
The cooling of market demand is also reflected in the capital market.
On April 22, four new shares of A-share zhongxinwei, saiweidian, Qingyan environment and osheng electric were listed. Among them, saiweidian broke off at the opening, down 29.81% and fell more than 31% at one time. Among investors, there was a floating loss of 11600 yuan. Saiweidian's main business is the R & D and sales of analog chips. Its main products include battery safety chips, battery metering chips, charging management and other chips.
The issue price of nano core micro reached 230 yuan, with an issue price earnings ratio of 107.48 times, which is the new share with the highest issue price since this year. Although the opening trend is good, nearly 40% of the online lottery winning retail investors chose to abandon the purchase, and the amount of abandonment was as high as 780 million yuan. Both the absolute amount and the proportion of abandonment set a new historical record. Nano chip micro products cover analog and mixed signal chips and are used in the fields of information communication, industrial control, automotive electronics and consumer electronics.
"This is a signal to tell everyone not to be too hot, and the demand of the market will eventually return to rationality." The above mobile phone supply chain manufacturers told reporters that the key to China's mobile phone market this year is whether it will fall below the 300 million mark.
However, some mobile phone manufacturers still maintain optimistic expectations for the sales volume of the whole year.
Li Jie, President of Yijia China, told reporters that there will be market pressure, but the goal will not change this year. "In the whole Android camp, we still maintain the target of 10 million."
He said that this year, the offline experience points of Yijia will cover 2800 districts and counties, more than 4000 business districts and more than 5000 experience points.
Hu Baishan, executive vice president and chief operating officer of vivo, told reporters that the main reason for the decline in the Chinese market is that mobile phones have completely entered the stock market, while the overseas market is mainly subject to the shortage of chips. In particular, there is almost no supply of ordinary 4G mobile phones (below RMB 1198), which leads to the decline of the industry.
"Although there is great uncertainty in the market, the peripheral impact is still short-lived in nature." Hu Baishan said that smart phones are not only a tool for users to solve personal entertainment problems, but also have gradually become a productivity tool. Enterprises maintain innovation, and the mobile phone industry is still a good industry.
