The soaring lithium carbonate has finally reduced its price.
Since 2021, new energy vehicles have always maintained a high-speed growth trend. Under the logic of strengthening the growth certainty of the demand side of new energy vehicles, the prosperity of the power battery industry continues to rise, and the upstream raw materials form a huge market demand. As the core raw material of power battery, lithium carbonate has become the hottest commodity in 2021, and the price has soared all the way.
By the end of 2021, the average market price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China had exceeded 270000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 400% compared with the beginning of the year. In 2022, the price of lithium carbonate continued the rise of last year, and the price exceeded 510000 yuan / ton in only three months. The rising price of raw materials not only put pressure on the profits of midstream material factories and battery factories, but also made the industrial chain unable to absorb the rising costs. New energy vehicle enterprises were forced to raise the sales price of new energy vehicles, resulting in a price rise tide.
After entering April, the price of lithium carbonate showed a slight correction, and the price continued to fall Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) data show that on April 21, the quotation of some lithium battery materials fell again, and the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate fell 7500 yuan / ton to 475000 yuan / ton.
"The decline in lithium carbonate prices is mainly due to the intervention of regulatory authorities," Zhang Xiaorong, President of the deep science and Technology Research Institute, told the shell finance reporter of the Beijing News On April 19, luojunjie, spokesman of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the press conference of the state information office that he would promote the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles to return to rationality as soon as possible.
after soared 10 times, the price fluctuation of lithium carbonate fell back and fell behind the important mark
In recent years, the new energy vehicle market has shown more than expected growth, and the market penetration has increased rapidly. In 2020, the market penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile was 5.8%. By 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 14.8%, of which the retail penetration rate in December was 22.6%.
At the same time, the new energy vehicle industry chain in 2021 also presents new characteristics, that is, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeds that of ternary lithium battery, and the growth rate is significantly higher than that of ternary lithium battery. The cumulative loading capacity of power battery last year was 154.5gwh, of which the cumulative loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 79.8gwh, accounting for 51.7% of the total loading capacity. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have more demand for lithium carbonate. It is reported that each ton of lithium iron phosphate needs to consume 0.96 tons of iron phosphate and 0.25 tons of lithium carbonate.
The continuous upward boom of new energy vehicles directly drives the increasing demand for lithium carbonate. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the output of lithium carbonate in China was 240000 tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%. The gap between supply and demand is partially filled by imports. Comparing the import data of lithium carbonate, it can be seen that in August, October and January 2021, China's monthly import of lithium carbonate exceeded 10000 tons, which is the peak in the same period in history. The higher the import volume of lithium carbonate, the tighter the supply of lithium carbonate in China.
In 2021, when supply and demand were tight, lithium carbonate products rose fiercely, and the prices of the whole year were in the upward range. From July to August 2020, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached the lowest point in several years, and its price was about 40000 yuan per ton; At the beginning of 2021, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate just exceeded 50000 yuan / ton. By the beginning of this year, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate had risen to nearly 300000 yuan per ton. In the first quarter of this year, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate was still in a sharply higher range. The price rose by about 80% in three months, and the price soared to 515000 yuan / ton. In more than a year, the price of lithium carbonate has increased by more than 10 times.
500000 yuan is regarded as an important pass in the price of lithium carbonate. After lithium carbonate broke through this barrier in early March, resistance appeared in the industrial chain. Li Bin, chairman of Weilai automobile, said at the financial report meeting, "we have made in-depth research on all links in the upstream and believe that there are more speculative factors in the current price rise of lithium carbonate, and there is not such a big gap between supply and demand." At this year's electric hundred people meeting, Li Xiang, CEO of ideal automobile, also publicly said, "the cost of lithium carbonate may be 3 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 yuan, which should not be so expensive. This is a huge profit, but take oil as an example. The price of oil is not based on the cost. Lithium carbonate will be the same as oil, and will no longer be calculated according to the cost."
On March 25, the price of lithium carbonate fell for the first time, but it remained at a high level of more than 500000 yuan / ton as of April 11. However, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline. According to Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) data, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate fell again on April 13, falling behind the threshold of 500000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 495000 yuan / ton; By April 21, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was reported at 475000 yuan / ton.
supply and demand imbalance improvement and government guidance, driving price correction
Zhang Xiaorong believes that "the decline in lithium carbonate prices is mainly due to the intervention of regulatory authorities. Relevant departments interviewed lithium salt enterprises to promote the reasonable and stable operation of prices and curb the speculation of lithium carbonate prices."
In mid and late March, four ministries and commissions, including the Department of raw materials of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, the General Administration of market supervision and the Anti Unfair Competition Bureau, held a symposium to discuss the issue of ensuring the supply and price stability of lithium resources. At the meeting, it was proposed to jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices and strengthen efforts to ensure market supply. With the statement of the government, the lithium carbonate market has been cooled to a certain extent; According to the data of Guorong securities, the actual transaction price of lithium carbonate fell to 45 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 0000 yuan / ton some time after the Symposium of the Ministry of industry and information technology.
On April 19, Luo Junjie, spokesman of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the press conference of the state information office that it would moderately accelerate the progress of China's resource development, and work with relevant departments to resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and driving up prices, so as to promote the return of raw material prices to rationality as soon as possible.
In addition to the guidance of the government, the loosening of prices is also related to the improvement of the imbalance between supply and demand in March, according to Lin Shi, an analyst in the automotive industry. "In March, due to the impact of the epidemic, many new energy vehicle enterprises are facing the situation of shutdown or partial shutdown, which will naturally be transmitted to the upstream." "The purchase of batteries and raw materials will slow down. In this case, the demand is declining and the price will naturally decrease," Lin told the shell finance reporter of the Beijing News
In addition, it is worth noting that the soaring price of lithium carbonate has been resisted by battery materials and vehicle enterprises. In addition, with the warmer weather, China's salt lakes began to resume production in March, and the release of new production capacity of China's salt lakes and mica increased supply. "The temperature warmed up in March, and the lithium extraction capacity of salt lakes on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau was gradually released, increasing the supply and easing the tension between supply and demand." Zhang Xiaorong said.
According to the analysis of market changes observed by the business community, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline this week, and the attitude of large manufacturers on the supply side was loose, but the price adjustment range was still limited; At present, the transaction range of the overall market is widened, and although the upstream and downstream game state is maintained, the price support is insufficient when the demand is significantly weakened, and the market transaction price is gradually reduced. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market is stable. After Salt Lake enterprises cut prices to sell lithium carbonate, the market is mainly delivered by long-term cooperation, and the transaction price has been reduced.
inflection point has not yet arrived, and the probability rate is still high this year
The price continues to fall. Has lithium carbonate, which has lost 500000 yuan / ton, reached the inflection point?
According to Zhang Xiaorong and other insiders, the inflection point has not yet come. Zhang Xiaorong admitted that the inflection point has not yet come, and Moke, the founder of real lithium research, also believes that the inflection point has not yet come. "The temporary price decline may not be transformed into a trend. The two main factors affecting the price, tight supply and currency devaluation, have not changed in trend."
Lin Shi believes that the decisive factor in the price of lithium carbonate is the balance between supply and demand in the market. The short-term improvement in supply and demand has brought down the price of lithium carbonate, but in the long run, it is still difficult to maintain a balance between demand and supply of lithium carbonate.
At the short-term level, Lin Shi said, "after the resumption of work of enterprises that have stopped production or semi stopped production due to the epidemic, the production and sales of new energy vehicles still exist, the orders for lithium carbonate will suddenly increase, and the relationship between supply and demand will be unbalanced." In addition, Mercure said that there is no obvious sign of easing the strong demand in the downstream market, and the increase in supply may not catch up with the expected growth of demand.
In the long run, the capacity planning of new energy vehicles is still not proportional to the capacity planning of lithium carbonate in China. According to incomplete rough statistics, 17 enterprises added lithium carbonate capacity in 2021, and it is expected to complete the capacity climb by 2023; Because it is under construction, it means that the capacity supply of lithium carbonate is still tight this year. Yingda securities predicts that the new capacity will reach 218000 tons in 2023, when China's lithium carbonate capacity will reach 680000 tons and the output will reach 350000 tons.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger car market information joint committee, once said that the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles forms the characteristics of differentiation, realizes the substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market, and drives the transformation of the vehicle market to new energy. This means that the downstream market is still in a state of high demand, but the new production capacity of lithium carbonate is slightly insufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still difficult to alleviate in the short term.
For the follow-up trend of lithium carbonate price, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) research shows that with the gradual release of lithium carbonate production, the relationship between market supply and demand has been alleviated; Downstream enterprises generally accept high priced lithium carbonate, and the market game will continue; Affected by the supply and demand pattern and sentiment, it is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will stop rising and maintain stability.
Zhang Xiaorong believes that the price probability of lithium carbonate remains high and fluctuates slightly this year; Moke also has the same view. He believes that at present, the demand side will still be relatively strong, and the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fluctuate at a high rate this year. Lin Shi admitted that China's lithium reserves are not large, mainly concentrated in Canada, Chile and Australia. China still needs to import and purchase, but overseas imports will also face unstable factors restricting the balance of supply and demand in many aspects such as transportation. If the balance of supply and demand is further broken, it is not impossible for the price of lithium carbonate to continue to rise several times.
For the downstream industrial chain, will price fluctuations reduce cost pressure? Zhangxiaorong believes that "the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated to a certain extent, but the speed of capacity release can not catch up with the speed of demand expansion. The overall contradiction between supply and demand is still in a tense situation, leading to the increase of downstream costs."
