Core view
The international crude oil price fluctuated upward as a whole this week. Considering the long-term complexity of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the recovery of global demand, we are still optimistic that the international oil price will remain at the current high level. Since the end of last year, with the production of multiple polysilicon units, the demand for trichlorosilane has been greatly boosted. At present, the monthly output of polysilicon in a single month has reached more than 50000 tons, and will maintain a high month on month growth rate in the future. Therefore, the production of new polysilicon units and the daily chlorine supplement of stock capacity will greatly increase the demand for trichlorosilane. This year, the supply of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is very limited, We recommend the continuous production of polychlorinated silicon in the future. Recently, due to the impact of downstream periodic demand and stock preparation, the market price of sucralose began to rise. Due to the continuous optimization of the global supply and demand pattern of sucralose and the continuous improvement of sugar substitution penetration rate, we are optimistic about the business cycle of sucralose in the future, with emphasis on [ Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ]. Recently, due to the factors of rising energy costs, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the rise of global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices, the price of overseas chemical fertilizer has increased significantly. Due to the strong resource attribute of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer, and Russia’s 10% and 20% share of the global market respectively, it is difficult for new production capacity to replace the corresponding market share in a short time. Therefore, we are optimistic about the rise of global potash fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer prices, [ Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ] and [ Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ] are highly recommended. At the same time, we have seen a significant upward trend in the price of phosphate rock yellow phosphorus recently. In the past few years, the upstream products of phosphorus chemical industry have received strong policy capacity constraints. In the future, driven by the demand for phosphate fertilizer, phosphate, glyphosate, glufosinate and iron phosphate, we are optimistic about the overall upward trend of the phosphorus chemical industry chain. Benefiting from the obvious pull of photovoltaic glass demand and the contraction of supply side capacity, the prosperity of soda ash industry continues to improve, and the product price is expected to continue to rise. Focus on the natural alkali process leader [ Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) ] with strong cost advantage and the related alkali process target. At the same time, we suggest to focus on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) 938 \ (sucralose) and other stocks.
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are butyl acrylate (5.76%), R125 (5.64%), acrylic acid (4.80%), POY (4.66%) and methanol (3.39%); The top five declines in the price of chemical products this week were R134a (- 8.36%), acetic acid (- 7.95%), dimethyl carbonate (- 5.36%), ethyl acetate (- 4.33%) and soft foam polyether (- 3.86%).
Rise and fall of price difference: the top five increases in price difference of chemical products this week are butyl acrylate (337.75%), PTA (102.30%), R125 (42.40%), adipic acid (41.91%) and methanol (37.03%); The top five price differentials of chemical products this week were propylene (MTO method) (- 71.25%), propylene (naphtha method) (- 63.05%), R134a (- 41.59%), PMMA (- 27.48%) and MTBE (- 20.40%).
Risk warning: the international crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Poor control of the overseas epidemic has led to a lower than expected recovery.
