On April 20, the executive meeting of the State Council identified a number of measures to ensure and increase energy supply. The meeting pointed out that we should give play to the main energy role of coal. We will work together to optimize the approval policies for production and project construction of coal enterprises, implement the local responsibility for stabilizing production and ensuring supply, and fully release advanced production capacity. Through nuclear capacity increase, production expansion and new production, 300 million tons of coal capacity will be added this year. Promote clean and efficient utilization of coal and strengthen the construction of reserve facilities. Using market-oriented and legal methods to guide the operation of coal prices in a reasonable range.
In terms of power generation, we should promote the transformation of coal-fired power units and improve energy efficiency. The scale of transformation in the whole year exceeded 220 million KW. Nuclear power should be developed in an orderly manner under the premise of strict supervision and ensuring absolute safety. The three new nuclear power unit projects that have been comprehensively evaluated and reviewed and incorporated into the national plan shall be approved.
thermal coal price is strongly supported
coal sector out of a wave of market
The coal sector has started a wave of rising market since March 16. The highest rise of the industry index is more than 30%, and 15 shares in the sector have increased by more than 50%. Recently, there has been a correction. This week, the average decline of coal stocks is 6.51%, with energy, China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) , Yunnan Yunwei Company Limited(600725) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) falling by more than 15%.
In terms of news, this round of coal stocks rose sharply or due to the strong support of power coal prices, overseas coal prices have risen rapidly since 2022. The Indonesian government raised the benchmark price of coal in March. The benchmark price in April was 288.4 US dollars / ton, up 41.59% month on month, up 232.72% year-on-year from 86.68 US dollars / ton in the same period of last year, and the coal price reached a new high. In 2021, China imported about 190 million tons of coal from Indonesia, accounting for nearly 60% of imports. The sharp rise in overseas coal prices led to the inversion of coal prices outside China and restrained import demand.
Coal is still the main energy source in China. Earlier, the central economic conference pointed out that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. Based on the basic national conditions of coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, as of April 21, a total of 33 shares in the coal sector had released the annual report, express report and performance forecast of 2021, of which 28 shares had increased in performance, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) with the highest growth rate of more than 400%.
Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) performance forecast shows that the company is expected to realize a net profit of 1.916 billion yuan to 2.06 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 3887.6% to 420081%, mainly due to the good prosperity of the coal industry, the sharp rise of the company’s coal price and the increase of sales volume.
Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) annual report shows that the net profit is 1.527 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 670.47%. In the third quarter, steel consumption soared, the demand for coke increased greatly, and the coke price continued to rise. At the same time, the coke production and sales volume of the company increased comprehensively. In addition, the prices of methanol, synthetic ammonia and other chemical products continued to rise, and the operating efficiency of the company increased significantly.
energy prices remain high
coal power sector performance under pressure
Affected by the sustained high energy prices last year, the performance of coal-fired power sector declined seriously in 2021. The net profit of 26 shares that have issued annual report, express report and performance forecast declined to a certain extent, and only Shenergy Company Limited(600642) , Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) , Top Energy Company Ltd.Shanxi(600780) profit decline was controlled within 50%.
The performance of coal power sector is under pressure, and some institutions are still optimistic Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) research shows that under the background of the high-quality development of coal and electricity in the 14th five year plan of energy and the repeated emphasis on energy security in high-level speeches, the contradiction between supply and demand and the pattern of interest distribution at the coal and electrode ends are bound to be reversed in 2022.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the coal supply of thermal power will be locked with Changxie coal in the future, so as to avoid the impact of market coal price fluctuation on thermal power operation. Deepening the market-oriented reform of coal and electricity will help to enhance the ability of coal and electricity enterprises to resist coal price fluctuation.
At present, coal power is still in a dominant position in the power generation structure. By the end of 2021, the national installed capacity of full-scale power generation was 2.377 billion kw, including 1.297 billion kw of thermal power, accounting for 46.66% of the total installed capacity.
The energy conservation, emission reduction, upgrading and transformation of China’s coal-fired power units have taken a long time and achieved remarkable results. In 2020, the coal consumption of power supply for thermal power plants with 6000 kW and above in China will be 305.5g standard coal / kWh, a decrease of 64.5g/kwh compared with 2005. Taking 2005 as the base year, from 2006 to 2020, the coal consumption of power supply was reduced, and the cumulative carbon dioxide emission of electric power was reduced by 6.67 billion tons, contributing 36% to the carbon dioxide emission reduction of electric power, which effectively slowed down the growth of total carbon dioxide emission of electric power.
The coal electricity sector was relatively resistant to decline this week, with an average decline of 3.9%, which was less than that of the market in the same period. Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) all rose slightly. In terms of valuation, the latest rolling P / E ratio of Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) , Shenzhen Energy Group Co.Ltd(000027) , Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co.Ltd(000690) is less than 15 times.
