Recently, the A-share market continued to adjust. On April 21, the three major A-share indexes fell by more than 2%, of which the Shanghai index fell below 3100 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and gem index hit a new low in this round of adjustment.
Institutional sources believe that due to the impact of the epidemic plus the rise of US bond interest rates and other internal and external factors, the A-share market has been adjusted recently. However, in the short-term shock of the current round of market, there are also many positive signals, such as the positive entry of northward funds into the market and the relevant departments encouraging long-term funds to increase the proportion of equity investment. The short-term pessimism of some investors does not affect the investment value of a shares, and all parties in the market should have hope for the future market.
internal and external factors causing market shock
Hu Po, manager of private placement fund paipai.com, told the China Securities Journal that the recent market sentiment has been depressed. Under the impact of multiple factors, there has been a significant adjustment in the A-share market.
“First, the performance of the recent annual report of growth stocks was less than expected, which caused investors to worry about the negative factors in the performance of listed companies; second, the market enthusiasm was difficult to sustain, the funds were concentrated in some small sectors for heating, and the hot spots were difficult to be sustained; third, under the background of the spread of the epidemic, the market was worried about the industrial chain and logistics, and the RMB exchange rate depreciated.” Hu po said.
“The rise in US bond interest rates suppressed the valuation of China’s risky assets. At the same time, the impact of the epidemic led to a decline in corporate profit expectations.” YONGYING Fund believes that the Federal Reserve still maintains a hawkish attitude and the US bond interest rate is still rising. We can’t see the easing of external liquidity pressure until the inflation data in the second quarter decreases. In China, the epidemic affected the supply chain and superimposed factors such as the increase of manufacturing cost pressure, resulting in the lower than expected performance of some manufacturing companies such as new energy in the first quarter, the weaker profit expectation or the deep-seated reasons for the adjustment of individual stocks in the recent growth sector.
heavy signal frequency
While the market continues to adjust, positive factors are gradually accumulating.
On the one hand, on the 21st, northward funds actively increased their positions by 911 million yuan, with a net inflow of more than 2 billion yuan at one time.
On the other hand, institutional funds did not leave the market. According to the data, as of 13:00 on April 21, there were 5094 public funds that disclosed the first quarterly report (each share is separated). From the funds that can be counted to the change of net asset value in the quarterly report and the net amount of subscription and redemption, we can find signs of capital hedging. In the first quarter, the net asset value and share of the Monetary Fund increased significantly; The net asset value and share of bond funds also increased; Although the net asset value of equity funds has shrunk, their share has maintained growth. As of April 21, all stock ETFs with statistical data had a net increase of 58.601 billion shares in the latest quarter.
Huabao Securities believes that market funds have been transferred from equity funds to fixed income funds, but they have not left the market. The fixed income fund has become a reservoir for funds to avoid risks when the market fluctuates, and will later become a source of incremental capital for equity assets.
From the index level, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist and chief strategist Xun Yugen said that the current round of adjustment of CSI 300 index has been obvious, and the valuation has been close to the level at the beginning of 2019. The current round of adjustment of SSE 50 index has been obvious, and the valuation has reached a new low since 2019. Gem refers to the current valuation has been at a historically low level.
market is expected to gradually improve
Recently, the policy signal supporting the entry of long-term funds into the market is strong. On April 21, the general office of the State Council issued opinions on promoting the development of individual pensions China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist Wang Hanfeng said that the establishment of individual pension system will help improve China’s pension security system, and new long-term investors are expected to be introduced into the capital market.
On April 21, the chairman of the national social security fund and the chief person in charge of the China Securities Regulatory Commission pointed out that there was no long-term meeting of the national social security fund. Pension, banking and insurance institutions and various asset management institutions should enhance their investment capacity. Implement long-term assessment, promote and strengthen the concept of long-term investment and value investment. Pay attention to cultivating the pricing ability of IPO and give full play to the role of professional buyer. Giving full play to the advantages of long-term funds can overcome short-term market fluctuations, make good use of the amount of equity investment, further expand the proportion of equity investment and improve the level of long-term income.
For the A-share market, Xun Yugen said that the steady growth policy has been strengthened, the epidemic prevention and control has made positive progress, and he should have hope for the future market.
“It is expected that the economy will gradually get out of the downturn in the second quarter and the equity market will gradually improve.” Zhao Xiaodong, equity investment director of Guohai Franklin fund, said.
“At present, the valuation of A-Shares is at the bottom of the market, and the medium and long-term investment value has appeared,” said AXA Puyin fund
“The second quarter will be the turning point of economic growth, and the external factors affecting the market are gradually weakening. At present, the market is in a large bottom area after a sharp decline, and the big bottom corresponds to a big opportunity.” Liang Yuejun, general manager of rosefinch fund, said.
