Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : medium and high-end men's and women's clothing brands are more affected in the short term new retail expansion is conducive to the recovery of sales after the epidemic
Since March, the epidemic in China has spread at many points, which has brought certain pressure on the terminal sales of textile clothing and jewelry. Medium and high-end men's and women's clothing brands are more affected in the short term, and the new retail expansion is conducive to the recovery of sales after the epidemic. The current round of epidemic is concentrated in Shanghai and other urban areas, which has a greater short-term impact on medium and high-end brands with high channel layout in high-speed cities, and has a limited impact on mass leisure clothing and men's clothing brands with key layout and sinking market. In addition, we have learned that the short-term closure of the epidemic has short-term pressure on logistics and transportation, and logistics in some areas of online channels is delayed. However, with the digital operation of domestic clothing brands and the expansion of new retail business, it objectively helps companies in the sector to make up for the decline of offline sales and improve operational resilience.
From the perspective of valuation and suggestions, Anta sports, Li Ning and Tebu international, the leading sports shoes and clothing brands with high vision, Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , and Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , the representative of sports fashion, are recommended. Maintain the profit forecast, investment rating and target price of the above companies unchanged.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : it is recommended to pay attention to the configuration opportunity after the valuation correction of high-quality textile and garment companies
Looking at the PE (next 12 months) range of the company in the past two years, after recent adjustment, the P / E ratio of most A-share and Hong Kong stock related companies is at the bottom of historical valuation. With the release of favorable signals from the policy side, most A-share and Hong Kong stock related companies begin to rebound. We suggest paying attention to the allocation opportunities after the valuation correction of high-quality companies.
Recently, the annual reports of textile and clothing companies have successively disclosed that sports brands at home and abroad have shown brilliant performance and operating efficiency. Since mid March, the epidemic has had a significant negative impact on the fundamentals and valuation of the sector, but it does not affect the potential energy improvement and industry growth prospects of medium and long-term high-quality local sports brands. Some manufacturing enterprises are affected by downstream demand transmission, but the companies with the advantage of share improvement still have a dominant growth. From the recent data, the cost pressure is gradually controllable.
We are optimistic about the fundamentals and the opportunity for the rebound of valuation under the background of historical low valuation. Hong Kong stocks mainly recommend Li Ning, Anta sports, Shenzhou International, Tebu international, Bosideng and taobo, and A-Shares mainly recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) , Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) .
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : most of them benefit the head yarn enterprises in the case of high cotton prices exposure of related leading targets
When cotton prices rise, most of them benefit the head yarn enterprises. On the one hand, the pricing of yarn sales orders is mostly determined by the spot price level, while the leading yarn enterprises have sufficient orders, strong bargaining power and relatively smooth price increase; On the other hand, abundant funds support the hoarding of raw materials, which can enjoy the dividends brought by the rise of cotton price and the consumption of low-cost inventory, or stabilize the gross profit margin to a certain extent.
In the short term, the international and Chinese cotton inventory consumption in the 21st / 22nd year is relatively low and is still in the de inventory stage; The overall consumption of the global terminal clothing market is still recovering, with a good growth rate, which can support the cotton price to maintain a high level. The downstream demand of China's cotton and yarn enterprises is under pressure recently, or it may run at a high level and weak level. In the medium and long term, under the macro background of the expectation of future interest rate hikes and the continuation of international conflicts, cotton consumption may slow down with economic growth, while the supply side tends to be loose, the marginal benefit may weaken, the global cotton may turn to increase inventory, and the focus of cotton price may move down.
Focus on Tianhong textile, Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Wuhu Fuchun Dye And Weave Co.Ltd(605189) , Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) . The short-term high cotton price shock trend continues, which is good for the head yarn enterprises with sufficient orders and price transmission ability; At the same time, with the transfer of some cotton textile orders to Southeast Asia, this trend may be good for yarn enterprises that have layout in Southeast Asia and other overseas regions and some adopt foreign cotton production.
Huajin Securities: local sportswear shows strong resilience under the epidemic
In terms of textile manufacturing, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Shenzhou International, the leader of textile manufacturing. In 2021, the company was affected by the epidemic in Southeast Asia, the appreciation of RMB and the rise of raw material costs. The revenue increased slightly by 3.5% to 23.87 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 34.0% to 3.37 billion yuan year-on-year. At present, the company's capacity utilization has returned to the normal level, and the capacity is in short supply. The recruitment of new factories in Cambodia is progressing smoothly. The capacity is expected to increase by about 15% year-on-year in 22 years.
In terms of brand clothing, the executive meeting of the State Council held on April 13 deployed policies and measures to promote consumption, help stabilize the economic fundamentals and ensure the improvement of people's livelihood. The meeting pointed out that we should deal with the impact of the epidemic and promote the recovery and development of consumption. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Anta sports, Li Ning and Tebu, the local sports clothing leaders. Anta sports and Tebu international have released 22q1 terminal retail flow data. Both of them have achieved relatively stable and high-quality growth under the condition of high base in the same period last year. Specifically, Anta brand's 22q1 water increased by double digits year-on-year (21q1 increased by 40% - 45%), of which the terminal water increased by more than 20% from January to February, and the number of units in the national offline water decreased in March; The running water of Tebu brand 22q1 increased by 30-35% year-on-year (about 55% year-on-year in 21q1). Compared with the overall market of the garment industry, local sportswear showed strong resilience under the epidemic.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : exposure of the strongest segment track in the apparel industry look forward to the future 5 years of industry growth
The sportswear industry is the strongest segment of the apparel industry and is optimistic about the growth of the industry in the next five years. According to the data of prospective industry research institute, the retail scale of China's sportswear market in 2021 was 371.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, and the CAGR from 2019 to 2021 was 7.8%.
From the perspective of horizontal comparison, sportswear tracks have maintained a leading position in terms of market growth and concentration. We are optimistic about the growth of the industry in the next five years (double-digit compound growth is expected). The main reasons are as follows: 1) compared with overseas mature markets, the Chinese market is still in its infancy and has great potential in the future; 2) Continuously increase the participation rate; 3) Motion scene subdivision + extension.
From the perspective of investment logic: 1) Fundamentals: in the post epidemic era, China's sports leaders are more resilient. According to the data of the prospective industry research institute, on the one hand, the year-on-year decline of the sportswear sector in 2020 was only 2.4%, which was significantly less than that of other sectors; On the other hand, the moving sector will recover fastest in 2021. Combined with the external guidance of listed leaders, despite factors such as high base + uncertainty of epidemic situation, China's top brands are still cautious and optimistic about the sales expectation in 2022. 2) Valuation: China's leader has returned to the level before the epidemic in 2019, and there is room for upward repair in the future. Combined with its own fundamentals and the medium and long-term prosperity of the industry, the current valuation level of China's leading enterprises is underestimated. In addition, compared with overseas leaders, China's leading brands are relatively better and more sustainable, and their profitability and growth rate are expected to obtain a certain valuation premium in the future.
We believe that China's sportswear industry will continue its high prosperity in the next five years. On the other hand, despite the short-term disturbance of the epidemic, the industry is expected to maintain good growth toughness. Under the background of deepening the national tide and continuously increasing the market share of local brands, we are optimistic about China's leading brands with strong short-term fundamentals and upward valuation. We recommend Li Ning, Anta sports and special step international to pay attention to taobo.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: Despite the double pressure of epidemic situation and high base in the second quarter but the medium and long-term good trend of the industry remains unchanged
Textile and clothing: 1) textile: 22q1 textile and clothing exports hit a record high, with booming foreign demand and continued prosperity. In March, the export volume of textile yarn, fabrics and products was US $11.8 billion, an increase of 22% at the same time, and the cumulative export volume in Q1 was US $36.6 billion, an increase of 15% at the same time; In March, the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was US $10.2 billion, an increase of 10.5%, and the cumulative export volume in Q1 was US $35.7 billion, an increase of 7%. The export volume of Q1 textile and clothing reached a record high, and the growth rate increased month on month from January to February in March alone, confirming the continuation of the prosperity of textile manufacturing driven by foreign demand. It is expected that the performance of the first quarter report in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain will be high, and the growth can still be expected. 2) Clothing: the epidemic continues to disturb offline retail, and the performance of sportswear is relatively better. Anta brand Q1 increased by 10% - 20%, and FILA increased the number of units at the same time. The performance of Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) q1 led the clothing market. Although under the dual pressure of epidemic situation and high base in the second quarter, the medium and long-term good trend of the industry remained unchanged, and the high prosperity track of sportswear continued to be optimistic.
In terms of investment suggestions, the high growth elasticity in the first quarter is still expected to focus on the textile manufacturing end, which also focuses on the opportunity of cost-effective layout of sports clothing, cosmetics, medical and beauty sectors in spring. Recommendation: 1) clothing and home textile: Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , Anta sports, it is suggested to pay attention to Li Ning; 2) Cosmetic medical beauty: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) ; 3) Textile manufacturing: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) , Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , it is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhou International, Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc(603889) , Wuhu Fuchun Dye And Weave Co.Ltd(605189) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: it is recommended to pay attention to the upstream manufacturing targets with high performance in the first quarter
1) in the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the upstream manufacturing targets with high performance in the first quarter report: some enterprises at the upstream manufacturing end have sustained prosperity, full orders and strong certainty of performance growth. It is expected that the performance of Q1 is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended that Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) : the company releases the business data from January to February, benefiting from the steady growth of cotton socks and rapid seamless growth. The profit from January to February is expected to increase by 136.7% year-on-year, and the performance of Q1 is expected to increase by 50-70%; Benefiting from Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) : Q1 zipper orders continue to grow beyond the industry, and the share is expected to continue to increase.
2) long term optimistic about high-quality OEM leader Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) and Shenzhou International: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) 21 years of outstanding performance growth, efficient and stable supply chain favored by customers, we expect that the company, as a sports shoes OEM leader, is expected to continue to deepen cooperation with major brand customers to achieve share increase; In addition, other high-quality OEM enterprises such as Shenzhou International are also recommended. Although the epidemic has a great disturbance to the company's short-term production capacity, the company has outstanding integration advantages. We believe that the future production capacity expansion and strong demand are expected to support the company's medium and long-term performance.
3) the flowing water of sports brand Q1 is dragged down by the epidemic, and 22h1 is expected to pass smoothly: Recently, sports shoes and clothing companies such as Tebu and Anta have successively disclosed the flowing water performance of 22q1. The epidemic has led to short-term pressure on the flowing water of some brands such as FILA, but Anta and Tebu still perform well, and the operation indicators of each company remain good. Since April, the epidemic situation is still very serious, and there is a high base for superimposed Q2. We expect that there is still pressure on the short-term brand side, but it is generally controllable, and 22h1 is expected to pass smoothly. In the long run, the prosperity of sports shoes and clothing industry is high, domestic leaders continue to increase brand construction, and the share is expected to continue to increase. Li Ning, Tebu international and Anta sports are recommended.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : it is recommended to pay attention to the sportswear leader whose valuation callback is in place and whose long-term logic is still clear
For the textile and garment industry, in terms of downstream brand clothing, the end consumer demand still needs to pay attention to the epidemic, especially the progress of prevention and control in Shanghai and other places. It is expected that the retail data in March and April will be under pressure. At the same time, with the gradual easing of the epidemic, the retail end will be gradually repaired, and the second quarter is expected to be the low point of the whole year.
In terms of target selection, on the one hand, it is recommended to pay attention to the sports clothing leaders with the valuation correction in place and the long-term logic is still clear, including Anta sports, Li Ning and Tebu international. On the other hand, it is also recommended to pay attention to the high-end sports fashion representatives Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , director long touge's stable and steady growth Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) , etc. Recently, the retail of brand clothing is generally facing demand side pressure. We recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, which are leading manufacturers with stable orders and continuous improvement of leading share.
