"At present, the low point of A-Shares has appeared, followed by the pit filling market in the shock city." On April 22, Xun Yugen, the best analyst Strategy Research of new wealth and Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief strategy analyst, won the first place for six consecutive sessions.
The above judgment made by analysts in Guangzhou Yupu New Capital Development Zone in the high-end market summit.
Xun Yugen said that since this year, the stock market has been very weak, and many people are worried about whether it will be a "big bear market". On the whole, although the market fell sharply under the impact of various negative factors at the beginning of the year. But looking forward to the future, the market is expected to slowly "fill the pit" and move slowly from winter to spring.
"At present, the end of the policy has been very clear. From the end of the policy to the end of the performance, it is a layout period. On the whole, the main line of A-Shares in the first half of the year is steady growth, and the second half of the year will focus on the main line of recovery. Among them, the annual value is slightly dominant, and the growth stage is dominant." Xun Yugen judged.
market valuation level is already very low
Xun Yugen said that from the perspective of the degree of adjustment, compared with history, the time and space of the current round of adjustment of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have been relatively obvious, and the valuation has been at a low level. Previously, the CSI 300 has experienced four rounds of major declines. This is the fifth round. Since February last year, the decline has exceeded 30%, as high as 34%.
"This round of decline is actually an adjustment in the process of bull growth. When adjusted to the current position, the valuation level has been very low. If it is an absolute valuation, the current market PE is very close to the low points at the end of 2018, the beginning of 2019 and March 2020." Xun Yugen said.
For the current pessimistic investor sentiment, Xun Yugen pointed out that due to the "black swan" of the conflict on the outer edge of the sea, as well as the joint impact of the Fed's interest rate hike and the epidemic, this round of decline appeared earlier than expected.
"However, on the whole, although the market has fallen sharply and the short-term decline is relatively large, it is still a normal decline in the bull bear cycle. Long bull does not mean that it has been rising, but is composed of small bull bears. A shares will be adjusted every three to four years." Xun Yugen said.
As for why there is a situation of "rising for three years and falling for one year", Xun Yugen explained that according to the law of macroeconomic cycle, an economic cycle needs to experience recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation. It will take about three and a half to four years to complete the four stages.
profit and capital decide that the pattern of bull growth remains unchanged, and the three bad factors gradually disappear
Looking forward to the future, Xun Yugen believes that the long bull pattern of A-Shares has not changed.
"On the whole, there are two major logics for the bull market. One is the fundamentals and the other is the capital, that is, profitability and valuation. On the one hand, the growth of corporate profits and the improvement of corporate profits are necessary to support the bull market. On the other hand, the market needs capital inflow to support valuation." Xun Yugen pointed out.
Xun Yugen further pointed out that these two points are available for A-Shares at present. In terms of profitability, the upgrading of industrial structure will push up enterprise roe At present, new resource endowments have emerged in China, which are moving from population intensive manufacturing to high technology endowments Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , and from population dividend to engineer dividend. At the same time, in terms of technical conditions, China has made certain advantages in 5g, new energy and other fields.
Xun Yugen said that at present, subtle changes are taking place in the asset allocation of Chinese residents, moving from real estate to equity. Among them, bank financing is an important carrier, which will make more and more funds in the whole equity market.
"In the past, the rate of return on rent in China's first tier cities was around 2%, implying 50 times PE. Next, the migration of residents' asset allocation will push up the valuation center of a shares." Xun Yugen explained.
Xun Yugen said that at this stage, we can be more optimistic about A-Shares strategically, and the three bad spots in the market are gradually going away.
"The expectation of US interest rate hike is full. In 2015, the Federal Reserve began a new round of interest rate hike cycle. At present, the market has full expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. At the same time, from the point of time, the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike and the end of the interest rate hike have the greatest disturbance to the stock market. Therefore, in the next step, under the background of A-share in a relaxed environment, there is no need to worry too much about the impact of overseas interest rate hike on A-share." Xun Yugen said.
In addition, Xun Yugen said that the biggest impact of overseas geographical conflicts has passed.
value is slightly superior throughout the year, and the valuation of financial real estate is still low
In terms of allocation, the period from the end of policy to the end of performance is the layout period. However, investors should pay attention to that the market bottom is not necessarily lower than the policy bottom, which depends on the strength of the policy. If the strength is strong, the market will slowly rise. On the contrary, if the policy strength is not enough, it may continue to decline.
"At present, the policy bottom has been very clear. Therefore, from a strategic point of view, the problem that should be considered at present is how to layout." Xun Yugen said.
Xun Yugen believes that at present, the low point of A-Shares has appeared, followed by the pit filling market in the shock city. It is expected that the earnings data of A-share enterprises will stabilize and recover in the second half of the year.
Xun Yugen believes that the specific growth strategy is expected to continue. At present, the monetary policy and fiscal policy are constantly advancing, the stock of social finance is picking up year-on-year, and the infrastructure will begin to work.
"Therefore, on the whole, the main line of A-Shares in the first half of the year is steady growth, and the second half of the year will focus on the main line of recovery. Among them, the annual value is slightly dominant, and the growth stage is dominant. Among them, the valuation of financial real estate is still low. The new infrastructure is more flexible, and you can pay attention to photovoltaic wind power and cloud computing data centers." Xun Yugen further pointed out.
