The price of organic silicon rebounded from the bottom, and the capital went north to increase its position with a large amount of money, and the performance increased its shares in advance.
According to the industry media new chemical materials network and other data, the spot of silicone products was in short supply this week, and the price rose sharply. Last weekend, the DMC price rose again by 500 yuan, entering 30000 yuan / ton again, up 15% since January.
In fact, since 2021, the price of silicone has experienced ups and downs, breaking through 60000 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in recent ten years, and then falling to a minimum of about 22000 yuan / ton.
(photo source: business agency)
At present, the orders of silicone enterprises have a warming trend. After the sharp decline of silicone prices, the price increase space is opened, and the quotations of several manufacturers have increased by more than 2000 yuan. This wave of price rebound is mainly due to the fact that many customers are waiting for the best bottom reading opportunity during the sharp decline of silicone price. The channel inventory has been reduced to a low level. Due to the influence of multiple factors such as the mentality of preparing goods before the end of the year and the current price close to the cost line, the downstream goods are more active.
the actual new capacity of silicone is less
Silicone manufacturers are relatively concentrated, and their products are greatly affected by supply and demand. The continuous decline in December is the biggest bad news because two large enterprises have added 600000 tons of production capacity. Market sentiment believes that the supply of silicone has increased greatly in the short term, and the downstream is unable to digest it. Therefore, they are bearish on the price of silicone.
However, in fact, there is still some difference between the usually landed capacity and the planned capacity. When the price of silicone fell to a low, there was no lack of temporary shelving of the planned capacity. Generally speaking, the overall capacity growth rate in recent years was low. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the total capacity of silicone DMC in China in 2021 was about 1.875 million tons, an increase of 200000 tons compared with 1.675 million tons in 2020. Last year, many silicone enterprises in the industry said to expand their production, but at present, only Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) Shihezi 200000 ton siloxane unit has reached production successfully.
In the short and medium term, the price of organosilicon DMC rises steadily, and it is difficult for the price to fall below 20000 yuan / ton under the support of cost; Under the influence of energy consumption dual control policy, silicone DMC is expected to usher in a wave of rebound. with the continuous expansion of downstream application fields, the long-term market space of silicone DMC is expected to expand.
2 shares release performance forecast
smart funds focus on performance and greatly increase shares
According to the securities times · databao, there are only 14 A-shares of silicon concept stocks. In 2021, the average share price rose by 99.67%, significantly outperforming the market. Since 2022, Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) , Xinyaqiang Silicon Chemistry Co.Ltd(603155) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) and other stocks have led the increase, but none of them has exceeded 10%; In contrast, the share prices of Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Foshan Golden Milky Way Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300619) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) all fell by more than 10%.
The share price of Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) has fluctuated all the way down since it rose to a high of 259.8 yuan / share in September last year. As of the noon closing, it has fallen to 112.96 yuan / share, with a cumulative decline of more than 50%. The share price has halved. Recently, it has recorded five negative lines in a row. Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) is one of the enterprises with the most complete business chain and the largest production scale in China's silicon industry. Affected by the previously popular new energy, photovoltaic and other industries, in the first three quarters of 2021, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) achieved a revenue of 14.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.34, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year jump of 596%.
Silicone prices soared in 2021, bringing huge profits to listed companies. In terms of the third quarterly report, only Shanghai Hongda New Material Co.Ltd(002211) suffered losses in the first three quarters of 2021, while the other listed companies achieved profits and their performance rose sharply year-on-year. At present, two organosilicon concept stocks have released performance forecasts ahead of others, and the annual performance of Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) and Xinyaqiang Silicon Chemistry Co.Ltd(603155) in 2021 is expected.
Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 4.2-4.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 573.14% - 605.19%. Benefiting from the recovery after the global economic epidemic, the chemical industry ushered in a boom cycle in 2021. The sales prices of the company's main products such as silicone, glyphosate, dimethyl sulfoxide and yellow phosphorus increased significantly year-on-year, and the profitability was significantly enhanced. Since January this year, the company has obtained a cumulative net purchase of 427 million yuan of funds for going north.
Xinyaqiang Silicon Chemistry Co.Ltd(603155) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 315 million yuan to 325 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.21% to 106.56%. The market demand for the company's products remained strong, the production and sales volume increased significantly year-on-year, and the global market share gradually expanded. At the same time, the positive expansion of the company's products in the new energy, led, electronics and medical market has also had a positive impact on the improvement of performance.
(source: Data treasure)
