On January 11, the Federation of passenger cars released data showing that in December 2021, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.105 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% and a decrease of 1.9% compared with December 2019; The month on month growth rate was 15.9% in November, which was significantly improved compared with the average month on month growth rate of 10% in December in recent years.
By brand, in December, the retail sales of Chinese brands reached 930000, with a year-on-year increase of 4%, a month on month increase of 12%, and the market share reached 46.3%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percentage points. China’s top brand enterprises have performed very well and gained significant growth in the new energy market. Therefore, traditional car enterprise brands such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and SAIC passenger cars have increased significantly year-on-year.
The retail volume of mainstream joint venture brands in the month was 930000, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, a month on month increase of 19%, and a decrease of 5% compared with December 2019. Among them, the retail share of Japanese brands was 22.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1 percentage point; The retail market share of American brands reached 9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points; The share of legal brand has increased by 0.3 percentage points, and the supply of German brand is gradually improving.
At the end of the year, the sales of luxury cars were stable. The retail volume reached 250000 in December last year, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, a month on month increase of 18%, and an increase of 22% compared with December 2019.
Overall, the total retail sales in 2021 reached 2014.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, down 1.7 percentage points from the growth rate from January to November. The reason for the diluted growth rate is mainly affected by the high retail base from July to December 2020.
It is noteworthy that the year-on-year net increase in retail sales in 2021 was 860000 vehicles. Among them, the number of traditional fuel vehicles decreased by 1.02 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; The number of new energy vehicles increased by 1.88 million, a year-on-year increase of 169%, and new energy vehicles contributed 9 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of passenger vehicles.
According to the analysis of the passenger Federation, the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles will form a strong difference in 2021, realize the partial substitution effect of new energy vehicles on the fuel vehicle market, prove the change of consumer demand through the market-oriented choice of users, and drive the vehicle market to accelerate the transformation to new energy.
According to the data, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475000 in December last year, a year-on-year increase of 128.8% and a month on month increase of 25.4%. In 2021, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%.
The growth of new energy vehicle sales has driven the increase of market penetration. Last December, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China was 22.6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 39%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles is 32.7%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 3.3%.
Specifically, in December last year, the new energy passenger vehicle market was diversified, the performance of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) was relatively strong, the highlights of traditional vehicle enterprises were prominent, and the performance of Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid two wheel drive was strong. The sales volume of new forces such as Xiaopeng, ideal, Weilai, Nezha, Zero run and Weima is generally better year-on-year and month on month. In particular, the sales volume of Xiaopeng, ideal, Weilai and Nezha has exceeded 10000, and the second echelon enterprises such as Zero run and Weima have also rapidly increased to a monthly sales volume of more than 5000. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, the wholesale of 19498 new energy vehicles of North South Volkswagen accounts for 46% of the mainstream joint venture brands, and Volkswagen’s firm electrification transformation strategy has achieved initial results. SAIC GM and brilliance BMW both sold more than 5000 new energy vehicles, and other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to make efforts.
In 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 14.8%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
With the implementation of new energy subsidies, the price of some models will be fine tuned, and the consumer mentality will also change, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected. However, new energy vehicles continue to be popular. At present, there are a large number of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales of most new energy vehicles will not be significantly affected by the decline.
Looking forward to 2022, the passenger Federation believes that the new energy subsidy policy is a great benefit. In 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies will remain unchanged, and the subsidy scale is not locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, which will realize the subsidy throughout 2022. With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of cost reduction ability, it is expected that the increment of new energy vehicles will be strong by the end of 2022.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, said, “the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space. The subsidy amount has increased by at least more than 10 billion, which should have an extremely obvious pulling effect on the car market.”
At the same time, due to the unchanged subsidy standard and the improvement of battery and vehicle integration technology, the policy mainly promotes the significant growth of the scale of new energy vehicle industry, which reflects the strong support of the policy for low-carbon industry and promotes the transformation of traditional fuel vehicle industry. In the field of commercial vehicles, in the fourth quarter of 2021, major manufacturers continued to invest in the announcement and declaration of replacing electric vehicles and the improvement of the industrial chain. The wind direction of industrial change deserves attention.
“It was originally expected that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles would reach 4.8 million in 2022. At present, it should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach about 25%. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be about 22%.” Cui Dongshu pointed out.
In addition, with the significant improvement of Chinese consumers’ recognition of the new energy market and the stability of policy subsidies, the total sales of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will inevitably increase sharply in 2022, and continue to maintain a super leading position with a share of more than 50% in the world.
(source: 21st Century Business Herald)
