The results of the first “examination” of Shenzhen new housing market in 2022 do not seem to be very good.
The first set of Shenzhen’s opening year in 2022 is Allianz Shangjing mansion in Guangming, but market information shows that as of January 7, only one source of Allianz Shangjing mansion is in the “signed purchase letter” status, and 352 sources of suites are in the “future house for sale” status.
According to the analysis, since the second half of 2021, due to the sluggish sales of second-hand houses, the new house market in Shenzhen has differentiated, and with the passage of time, the differentiation has become more and more serious, and the opening de conversion rate has decreased significantly. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the supply of new houses in Shenzhen has increased significantly, which makes buyers more selective. In addition, affected by multiple regulatory measures such as credit tightening, buyers are becoming more and more rational.
“if you want to put it in 2020, you don\’t have to worry about selling the word light!”
Recently, Allianz Shangjing house, located in Guangming District, Shenzhen, launched 353 houses, but it only attracted 15 batches of customers to register, with a subscription rate of only 4.2%.
On January 2, the project was officially opened. According to the market information, as of January 7, only one suite source of Allianz Shangjing house was in the “signed purchase letter” status, and 352 suites were in the “future house for sale” status.
Regardless of the final sales results, for Guangming, the “net red area” in Shenzhen in recent years, the results of only 15 batches of customer registration have surprised the market.
“It’s too little to sell. If you put it in 2020, you don\’t have to worry about selling the keyword of bright!” Manager Chen, who works as a real estate agent in Guangming District, was also surprised.
The encounter of Guangming new market is in great contrast with the previous new housing market of “10000 people playing new”.
Previously, in November 2020, the first phase of China Resources City Runxi opened, attracting more than 15000 batches of registration data of home buyers, and finally 9690 batches participated in notarial lottery (at that time, the number of finalists was 10 times the number of houses).
In Guangming District, the “sunshine” of several new housing projects has attracted market attention. For example, in June 2020, Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) HUAFA Rongyu Garden Phase I saw a grand event of nearly 10000 people wagging numbers – selling 394 houses, attracting 8997 buyers to participate in the wagging, with a winning rate of only 4.37%.
Specific to the cold real estate. The developer of anshanglian expressway is anshangfu Co., Ltd. in November 2020, and anshanglian expressway is the developer of anshangfu, Anhui Province. Allianz Shangjing mansion is located in Xinhu street, Guangming District, close to experimental high school and Science Park. It is located in Guangming, the “net red area” pursued by Shenzhen just need real estate in recent years. The average filing price is 51900 yuan / m2, all of which are delivered for decoration.
Public information shows that the project covers an area of 18100 square meters, with a total construction area of about 92000 square meters. It is composed of four buildings, one block a, B and C is a marketable residence, block D is a talent room, 612 parking spaces are set, the ratio of ladder households is 2 ladder households, 4 households are equipped with a kindergarten, and the area of community flower garden is small.
Looking at the opening of projects around Allianz Shangjing mansion, the nearest Yuefu garden was opened in March 2020, with 1036 houses and blank delivery. The average filing price was about 47000 yuan / m2, and 354 sets were sold on the opening day.
Image source: Baidu map
The second was in Jinmao Park, which opened last September. The project recorded 269 houses and delivered them in hardcover. The average filing price was 51700 yuan / m2. Finally, 175 batches of customers recognized the fund and opened to eliminate the unknown.
According to the analysis, Allianz Shangjing house, with an average price of 51900 yuan / m2 and hardcover delivery, has no advantage at all under the same surrounding environment and similar supporting facilities. It is not surprising that it has become the worst one of the three projects.
In addition, in addition to the slightly higher price, Allianz Shangjing government also seems to have a big “hard injury” in terms of transportation. It is reported that the nearest subway station of the project is Loucun station of line 6. The straight-line distance between the two places is 1.1km and it takes more than 15 minutes to walk.
buyers have more choices
In fact, the new year’s new housing market in Shenzhen has long been cold. Previously, the phenomenon of new house discounts was blooming everywhere in Shenzhen, and new houses began to be discounted in Guangming District, where “Japanese CD” appeared frequently. Moreover, there are a variety of discount methods. Some directly discount, some directly launch special price houses, and some buildings even offer an attractive discount of “buying a large house type and giving a small house type”.
In just one year, the real estate market in Shenzhen has really cooled down from the difficulty of finding a new house to all kinds of promotion.
In addition to the strict regulation of the property market, the large supply of new houses is also one of the reasons.
According to the statistics of Shenzhen real estate agency association, 52417 new houses were sold in Shenzhen in 2021, an increase of 15.5% compared with 2020, a new high in the past six years.
For the new housing market in 2021, Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association believes that the supply of new houses in Shenzhen in 2021 continues the centralized trend since 2020, with a total of 58100 pre-sale units in the whole year, an increase of 9.3% compared with that in 2020. On the other hand, affected by multiple regulatory measures such as credit tightening, house buyers are becoming more and more rational, and the new offer with low cost performance is carefully selected, which has not been sold out at the opening.
Continuously increasing housing supply has become a key issue vigorously promoted by Shenzhen during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Under the implementation of the “two concentration” policy of homestead, it is expected that the centralized and large-scale supply of new houses in 2021 will continue in 2022. According to incomplete statistics, there are about 144 potential projects entering the market in Shenzhen in 2022, and buyers have more opportunities to choose.
From the perspective of Guangming district where Allianz Shangjing mansion is located, Guangming has been a major supplier in Shenzhen’s land auction market in recent years. On the three centralized land supply in Shenzhen in 2021, Guangming District sold a total of 9 plots, most of which were won by local developers. It is noteworthy that after the completion of these residential land, the average blank price of commercial housing is about 42200-48900 yuan / m2. It can be seen that the supply of new sites in Guangming District of Shenzhen is still large in 2022, and the sales price may be lower than last year. “Now buyers are more selective, and the new house price is expected to be lower this year.” Manager Chen said.
On January 11, the official website of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources released the information of stock residential land in Shenzhen. According to statistics, as of December 31, 2021, there were 537 residential projects in stock in Shenzhen, with a total area of 1017 hectares, 269.84 hectares of land not started and 747.16 hectares of land started, including 286.17 hectares of land not sold.
It can be seen from the list of existing residential land projects that there are 30 projects in Futian District, 53 projects in Nanshan District and 22 projects in Luohu District. In addition, it is worth mentioning that Longgang District has the most residential projects, with a total of 103 projects.
He Qianru, director of Meilian property National Research Center, said that since the second half of 2021, due to the poor sales of second-hand houses, the new house market in Shenzhen has been divided, and with the passage of time, the differentiation has become more and more serious, and the opening de conversion rate has decreased significantly. If specific to the above-mentioned real estate, it may have a great relationship with the location of the project and its own situation, and it has a greater relationship with the insufficient preparation of real estate enterprises. The supply of new houses in Shenzhen has increased greatly during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of new houses in 2022 will not be lower than that in 2021. In addition, there are still many positive factors in Shenzhen’s new housing market in 2022, such as low prices and low taxes. Therefore, it is estimated that the trading volume can remain high, but real estate enterprises need to make better products or more appropriate price strategies to attract customers to their own real estate.
(source: Securities Times)
